March 12, 2024 01:23 PM UTC

BREAKING: Ken Buck to Resign from Congress and Drop Anvil on Lauren Boebert

•  
• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: Okay, bear with us because this is confusing…

Governor Polis has called a special election in CO-04 to align with the June 25 Primary Election already scheduled. This makes sense, because it saves the state money by not requiring county clerks and the Colorado Secretary of State to conduct two separate elections within a week or two. If you are a registered Republican voter in CO-04, your ballot for the Primary Election will have two different questions (or maybe two different ballots; we’re not sure about that yet). Regardless, those voters will have two questions in this race:

A) Selecting between the Republican vacancy committee nominee and the Democratic vacancy committee nominee for the right to serve the remainder of Buck’s term (through early January 2025);

B) Selecting between Republican candidates for the right to be the GOP nominee in the General Election in November 2024. The winner of that contest would become the next elected Representative (assuming a General Election victory) and would assume office in early January 2025.

This could conceivably be the same person, but for reasons we outlined below, it probably won’t be. Either way, the Republican nominee for the special election still maintains an advantage over the other Republican candidates; if you select, say, Jerry Sonnenberg to win the special election, you might naturally be inclined to just pick him again for the next term in Congress.

—–
Hello, plot twist.

Congressman Ken Buck (R-Greeley) threw another couple of logs on the dumpster fire that is the Republican race for Congress in CO-04 by announcing that he plans to resign his seat AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK (March 22).

Buck announced in late October that he would not seek another term in Congress in 2024, but had not at that point indicated that he would leave the job early. There’s a lot to unwrap with Buck’s surprise decision, which apparently even came as a shock to House Speaker “MAGA” Mike Johnson, so let’s get to it…

Why is Buck resigning now instead of completing his term?

Why, indeed?

There are two reasons, really: 1) Buck truly hates his job, and 2) Republicans are desperately trying to rid themselves of Rep. Lauren Boebert.

Let’s start with the first reason. As “CNN Ken” told, uh, CNN, everything is awful:

 

Post by @gtconway3dg

View on Threads

 

DANA BASH: Is it really that miserable?

BUCK: It is the worst year, of the 9 years and three months that I have been in Congress. And having talked to former Members, it’s the worst year in 40, 50 years to be in Congress?

Buck is not someone who has accomplished much of anything in Congress — his claim to fame is always voting against any budget measure — but it is also true that 2023 was one of the most ineffective Congressional sessions in modern history.

Now, let’s get to Reason #2. Republicans in Colorado and across the country are absolutely sick and tired of Boebert and her neverending quest to be a D-list celebrity instead of a lawmaker. Boebert decided not to seek re-election in CO-03 in part because Republicans were lining up to support Jeff “Bread Sandwich” Hurd instead. Boebert’s move to run in CO-04 instead was initially met with skepticism, but Republicans have grown worried that she might be unstoppable in a Primary Election that could feature (at minimum) a half-dozen different candidates splitting up the vote. When Boebert received the endorsement of former President Donald Trump earlier this month, it raised the level of panic among reasonable Republicans.

Why does this hurt Boebert?

When someone resigns from the U.S. House of Representatives, that seat must be filled via a special election (unless the resignation is within 90 days of a General Election). By resigning now, Buck is ensuring that a special election can take place before the Primary Election on June 25…thus giving the special election winner the advantage of running as an “incumbent.”

According to Colorado statute (CRS 1-4-402), candidates for a special election are drafted by their respective political parties:

(a) Any convention of delegates of a political party or any committee authorized by resolution of the convention shall nominate a candidate to fill a vacancy in the unexpired term of a representative in congress. A state central committee, its managing or executive committee selected pursuant to section 1-3-105 (2), or any other committee designated by the bylaws of the state central committee to convene a convention to nominate a candidate to fill a vacancy in the unexpired term of a representative in congress shall convene the convention and shall provide the procedure for the nomination of the candidate. A copy of the notice of election, as set by the governor and filed with the secretary of state, shall be sent by certified mail to the state chairperson of each political party.

In short, a Republican central committee will determine the Republican candidate to run in a special election (Democrats will also put forward a candidate, but given the heavy-lean toward Republicans in CO-04, that’s probably a bit of a lost cause). Boebert has a big war chest and significantly better name ID than all of the other CO-04 Republican candidates combined. What Boebert likely doesn’t have is the respect or support of the members of a GOP central committee that will choose the Republican nominee for a special election.

The Republican nomination for a special election is more likely to go to someone like former State Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg, who has a ton of support from well-known Republican names such as former Senators Wayne Allard, Hank Brown, and Cory Gardner. A special election will generate media coverage and fundraising support that a non-Boebert candidate would otherwise have trouble organizing in the next four months. That’s a pretty big advantage for whomever emerges as the Republican nominee in a special election.

So why not Boebert?

Here’s the other part of the problem for Boebert: A GOP central committee is unlikely to select her as the nominee in CO-04 given that she just recently moved into the district and currently represents CO-03 in Congress. If the committee nominated Boebert and she won the special election, which would be likely, then it would open up CO-03 to another special election.

The third congressional district is not as overwhelmingly-Republican as CO-04. Furthermore, Democrat Adam Frisch has a massive campaign warchest that dwarfs the accounts of Republicans such as Hurd and Ron Hanks. There is a very good chance, then, that a special election in CO-03 would allow Frisch to go into a General Election as an incumbent — making it significantly more difficult for Republicans to maintain control of that seat.

This also becomes a national issue. While a special election in CO-04 likely wouldn’t change the Republican/Democratic breakdown in the House, such an election in CO-03 very well could. House Speaker Johnson absolutely cannot afford to lose another Republican vote in 2024.

Watch this space for more information as we learn details about next steps leading to a special election…and for what may well end up being Ken Buck’s political legacy.