November 01, 2011 03:40 AM UTC

Election Projections?

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• by: glasscup

(Bumped into Tuesday – promoted by Colorado Pols)

So what does everyone think happens tomorrow?

Post your guesses below, bonuses for percentages. Maybe we’ll find some way to figure out who does best or something. I’m just listing the Denver stuff, since that’s all I really know, but feel free to speculate about other stuff (Jeffco board?)



– Initiative 300 (Mandatory Paid Sick Leave)

– DPS District 5 (Jimenez vs. Draper-Carson)

My guesses:

Initiative 300 – goes down. Broad coalition seems to have formed against it. 39% – 61%

Initiative 103 – I think also unfortunately loses. My guess 47% – 53%

2A – Loses 60-40. Personally, can’t see why Gallagher needs a deputy. Maybe if the guy didn’t spend all his time messing with politics he could find the time to do his job himself?

DPS At-large: I bet Happy Haynes gets at least 65% of the vote. She has no real competition in this race. Surprised if anyone else breaks 20%.

DPS District 1: I think Sirota and his angry gang think this is closer than it is and Emily’s chances are better than they are. I was amazed by his op-ed saying he thought his wife’s deep grassroots experience would be enough to carry the day. Really? She moved to the district a year ago and is going up against someone who has been a longtime activist in the district and actually has that support. Anne Rowe is the grassroots activist, and Sirota is a political operative trying to fake it. I’ve never figure out why she is running besides trying to settle scores for her husband and his friends. That, and in a district that has always been reform-friendly (elected Bruce Hoyt by a huge margin), I don’t think there is support for her extreme anti-reform views. I think she loses and Rowe wins 58%-42%

DPS District 5- This race is going to be close, but I think Jimenez loses because of his record. He ran as a reformer but has spent all of his time on the board hanging out with Andrea Merida. He’s opposed a lot of stuff that is supported in his district, like West Denver prep. And then he’s tried to lie about it. Same with SB191. And while he does have support in the district, and has the strengths of being an incumbent, I think ultimately he’s going to lose because he’s turned off a lot of parents who believe in these schools and these reforms. I think his opponent, Jennifer Draper-Carson, has run a pretty good campaign for a first time candidate. Jimenez squeaked by in 2007, and I think because of his opposition to good reforms and good schools, he’s going to lose this time. Draper Carson wins 52-48.