October 07, 2010 02:33 PM UTC

DCCC Cuts Back In CD-4

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• by: H-man

In order to figure out what is really going on out there, don’t spend too much time listening to what people are saying, or reading the PR they put out, or thinking through the numbers of the latest semi-released poll.  And for goodness sake, don’t take 90% of the pabulum served up on ColoradoPols as the truth. Just look at the facts and what people do.

Betsy Markey in CD-4 is considered the 8th most likely seat to switch. http://www.nationaljournal.com…   Most experts believe that something in excess of 40 seats will switch parties in November.  Republican active voter registration exceeds Dem active voter registration in her district by over 12%. There have been three polls semi-released on this race, none of which show Markey in the lead.

Yesterday a poll was released showing Markey, the incumbent, behind 44% to 41%.  The resident genius writing for ColoradoPols came to the following conclusion “We’ve always said this race is a toss-up, but if you had to bet on it today, you’d have a hard time talking yourself into Gardner.” The national prognosticators moved CD-4 into the leans GOP column some time ago.

So who is right?

As if on cue, the people that have the best polling info, the best experts to interpret them and the money to spend, chime in to answer the question.  

The DCCC has started to pull advertising for Betsy Markey.  http://www.nationalreview.com/…  The National Journal notes:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee “shaved its ad buy” for Rep. Betsy Markey but has not completely abandoned the freshman incumbent, according to the Denver Post. The DCCC has done the same in other districts where the Democrat is “running behind their Republican challengers in the polls.”

Joanna Burgos, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, disagreed. “Make no mistake about it, when you’ve got a destructive voting record like Betsy Markey and the national party begins to siphon funds away from your deteriorating race 30 days out, it is because they are hanging you out to dry,” said Burgos in a media release.

While the money taken from Markey seems headed to New York, the Republicans are moving money away from CD-4, confident in a win, and putting $700K more on the table in CD-3.

The word “triage” comes to mind.