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October 07, 2010 02:33 PM UTC

DCCC Cuts Back In CD-4

  • 22 Comments
  • by: H-man

In order to figure out what is really going on out there, don’t spend too much time listening to what people are saying, or reading the PR they put out, or thinking through the numbers of the latest semi-released poll.  And for goodness sake, don’t take 90% of the pabulum served up on ColoradoPols as the truth. Just look at the facts and what people do.

Betsy Markey in CD-4 is considered the 8th most likely seat to switch. http://www.nationaljournal.com…   Most experts believe that something in excess of 40 seats will switch parties in November.  Republican active voter registration exceeds Dem active voter registration in her district by over 12%. There have been three polls semi-released on this race, none of which show Markey in the lead.

Yesterday a poll was released showing Markey, the incumbent, behind 44% to 41%.  The resident genius writing for ColoradoPols came to the following conclusion “We’ve always said this race is a toss-up, but if you had to bet on it today, you’d have a hard time talking yourself into Gardner.” The national prognosticators moved CD-4 into the leans GOP column some time ago.

So who is right?

As if on cue, the people that have the best polling info, the best experts to interpret them and the money to spend, chime in to answer the question.  

The DCCC has started to pull advertising for Betsy Markey.  http://www.nationalreview.com/…  The National Journal notes:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee “shaved its ad buy” for Rep. Betsy Markey but has not completely abandoned the freshman incumbent, according to the Denver Post. The DCCC has done the same in other districts where the Democrat is “running behind their Republican challengers in the polls.”

Joanna Burgos, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, disagreed. “Make no mistake about it, when you’ve got a destructive voting record like Betsy Markey and the national party begins to siphon funds away from your deteriorating race 30 days out, it is because they are hanging you out to dry,” said Burgos in a media release.

While the money taken from Markey seems headed to New York, the Republicans are moving money away from CD-4, confident in a win, and putting $700K more on the table in CD-3.

The word “triage” comes to mind.

Comments

22 thoughts on “DCCC Cuts Back In CD-4

  1. DCCC has NOT “pulled out,” they adjusted their buy to account for, among other things, $300,000 of ad buys by Emily’s List. Emily’s List does not throw good money after bad. Not a single news outlet has reported that the DCCC has “pulled out,” because that would be bullshit.

    H-man, why are all of your arguments dependent on bullshit?

    1. Not a single news outlet has reported that the DCCC….

      Only liberals believe that the mainstream media accurately reports the news. If you are waiting for Washpo, ABC, NBC, CBS, or MSNBC to report anything perceived to be damaging to the liberal cause you need to stock up on food and water….it will be a long wait.

    2. DCCC adjusts thier buy in CD-3 to spend no money in the week before the election?

      JCB it must really suck to be a Dem in this cycle.  But, your anger is misdirected.  Take a look at what the clowns you sent back to DC have done in the last two years and you might begin to understand.  Then again, maybe you will not.

  2. CD4 voter registration figures from the Secretary of State presents a reliable starting point for predicting CD4 results.

    Registered Reps  136888   40%

    Unafils          110896   32%

    Registered Dems   97448   28%

    Factor in the mood of the voter enthusiasm of Reps besting Dems magnifies the effect of the registration figures.

    For good measure one could factor in the “blue collar” sentiment recently polling in favor of the Reps canidates. Doing so certainly paints an insurmountable handicap for Markey.

    Markey winning the seat in 2008 was the first time Reps had not held that seat since 1972. The argument could be made that Markey was the beneficiary of distaste for McCain and an energized Dem base coming out for Obama. Further Musgrave’s campaign was perceived as very negative and resulted in the perfect storm.

    All this to consider and Coloradopols still lists Markey as favored to win. I would like to hear Coloradopols justification. I recognize that will be just as likely to occur as a day without a Buck bashing diary does not make the front page.

    1. You are in fantasy land. McCain decisively won the 4th, as did Betsy Markey. Betsy Markey did not win because of “distaste for McCain.” She won because of distaste for Marilyn Musgrave and a combined GOP/Dem/Unaffilliated excitement to vote for Betsy Markey.

  3. Any more than it is okay to write completely false diaries. We changed your headline from “DCCC Pulls Out of CD-4,” because it’s false.  

      1. Okay, BJ, give us an example? Where have we recently written a headline that is patently untrue?

        This isn’t about semantics. This is about true vs. untrue. It is untrue to say that the DCCC is “pulling out” of CD-4. There’s no argument to be made otherwise. What if the headline was “RNCC pulling out of CD-4”? That wouldn’t be true, either, and we wouldn’t permit it.

  4. LOL. Now they are editing headlines they feel are too damaging to their progressive canidates. I would expect nothing less from the propaganda arm of the Democrats. Too Funny!  Change Pulls to Cuts.  This is sophmoric and amateurish. But then again it is from Coloradopols.  At least this site provides a continual dose of humor.

    1. We’ve done this on occasion, on headlines written about Democrats and Republicans. You can’t just flat-out post a false statement in a headline any more than we would let you post a completely untrue diary. This diary is okay, but the prior headline — that the DCCC is “pulling out” of CD-4 — was false. And it’s not just a minor thing. It would be a huge story if the DCCC was really pulling out of CD-4 entirely.

      1. Here is a headline you promoted:

        “Ken Buck Ad Campaign Propped Up By Foreign Cash? ”

        The ad campaign which is the subject of the title is a Chamber of Commerce ad campaign, not Ken Buck’s Campaign as the title implies.

        Are you going to change that title which is false?

        1. We don’t think the headline “Ken Buck Ad Campaign Propped Up By Foreign Cash?” is untrue, but we can understand the argument against it. The headline has been changed to “Anti-Bennet Ad Campaign Propped Up By Foreign Cash?”

           

    2. You think Pols has only edited (or even deleted) the diaries of people with whom they disagree or who come here to shill for a particular candidate?

      The Buck shills on this site are beyond delusional. Ken Buck may win, but it will be in spite of your actions, not because of them.

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