August 31, 2010 12:00 AM UTC

Rasmussen Tightens Senate Race

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• by: Colorado Pols

Last Wednesday’s Ipsos poll showing GOP Senate candidate Ken Buck up by nine points over Democrat Michael Bennet widened a lot of smiles on the right side of the aisle–Republican-friendly polling firm Rasmussen Reports sobers them up today.

The U.S. Senate race in Colorado between incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet and Republican challenger Ken Buck remains very competitive.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Buck picking up 47% support, while Bennet earns the vote from 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate while four percent (4%) are undecided. Earlier this month, it was Buck 46% and Bennet 41%.

Though Buck has consistently led the incumbent since March, this is the highest level of support Bennet has received all year. [Pols emphasis] In each of six previous surveys stretching back to May, the former Denver school superintendent had earned between 39% and 42% of the vote. Bennet was named to the Senate early last year when Ken Salazar resigned to join President Obama’s Cabinet. A county prosecutor, Buck has captured between 44% to 48% of the vote during that same time frame…

We’ve always said that polling done more than four months out of an election is relatively worthless, but now that we’re nearing the 60 days until E-Day mark (Sept. 4, if you’re counting), respondents are starting to voice opinions based as much on the candidates as on their Party affiliation. Case in point, check out the changing Very Favorable/Very Unfavorable numbers from a few weeks ago:

What the Very Favorable/Unfavorable numbers show is that Buck’s overall lead is based largely on the generic Republican/anti-incumbent advantage that has shown up in polls throughout the year. But voters don’t actually like Ken Buck the candidate the more they get to know him (nor do they really like Michael Bennet, either). The bottom line is that this race is going to come down to the wire.