May 03, 2010 11:10 PM UTC

Good News for Democrats

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• by: Raphael

I have always been of the opinion that the single most important factor in any election is the state of the economy. It’s a pretty basic analysis, for all the talk of people being “upset with Washington” or “Ready for change” are all really symptoms rather than causes another more deterministic (in terms of voting behavior) variable, namely the state of the economy.

This is why, as a Democrat, I was particularly pleased to see this bit of news today:

“Poll Shows Optimism on the Economy”

A growing number of Americans think the economy is improving and three-quarters of them approve of President Obama’s handling of the economy, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes…

As the opinions of the U.S. electorate on the state of the U.S. economy increase in favorability, so too do the chances of every Democrat up for re-election.

For all of the Republican bluster (i.e. witness House Minority Leader Boehner claiming that Republicans will win 100 seats this November), if these numbers keep increasing, Republicans chances of a House takeover will drop dramatically.

Forty-one percent said the economy was getting better, up from 33 percent about a month ago, while 15 percent described the economy as deteriorating.Of that 41 percent, 75 percent approve of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy.

If the trend continues, by the election upwards of 80% (5 months times 8 percentage points a month) of voters would think that the economy is getting better, settings for a Democratic landslide! Obviously that’s a bit of wishful thinking, but the trend is invariably good news.

And those pesky unaffiliated voters? This might be where the silver lining for Republicans is as

Sixty-one percent of Democrats said the economy was getting better, but only 16 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of independents agreed.

Which is particularly important for the voter group since perceptions on the economy make a larger difference for those who aren’t hard partisans. So maybe I’m being over-optimistic here, but economic perceptions also often play into a feedback loop where optimistic news feeds more optimism (just like when bad news about a stock market crash causes it to crash further), so hopefully we will see the U’s swept up in it as the economy improves.

Anyways, I think this is a big deal, what do you think?

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