The Big Line: 2018

biglineflag18NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning a particular raceNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

Candidates with an asterisk (*) are officially running, or widely presumed to be running.

GOVERNOR

(D) Ed Perlmutter (70%)↑
Now that Ken Salazar has backed away from the race, Perlmutter can take the baton and get moving.

(R) Walker Stapleton* (30%)
Two-term State Treasurer has been on this path for a long time now.

(R) George Brauchler* (20%)
The Arapahoe County DA toyed with the idea of a Senate run for several months in 2015. For now, at least, he appears to be more focused on running for Governor.

(R) Victor Mitchell* (20%)↑
Former one-term state Representative is in the race and says he plans to spend millions of his own money in order to get to the Governor’s Mansion.

(D) Mike Johnston* (20%)↓
Johnston cannot beat Perlmutter in a Democratic Primary. Period.

(D) Cary Kennedy (20%)
Former State Treasurer has been eyeing this race for several years; she can’t get past Perlmutter, either.

(D) Noel Ginsburg* (10%)↓
Officially in the race for governor, but hasn’t done much of anything to indicate serious campaign is forthcoming.

(R) Ray Scott (10%)
Grand Junction state senator seems to think he could get Donald Trump’s endorsement.

(R) Lew Gaiter* (10%)
He’s officially seeking the GOP nomination…whoever he is.

(R) Justin Smith (10%)
Larimer County Sheriff could be interesting if he’s serious.

(D) Mike Merrifield (5%)
Colorado Springs state senator floating his name, a lot, but not getting much interest.

 

(D) Ken Salazar (OFF)
Announced on March 23 that he would not run for Governor.

(R) Tim Neville (OFF)
Jeffco state Senator considered making a run here, but from what we hear, he probably stays out.

 


ATTORNEY GENERAL

(R) Cynthia Coffman* (70%)↓
Coffman will almost surely face a tough challenge here. Don’t be surprised if she also draws a strong Primary opponent thanks to Coffmangate.

(D) Joe Salazar* (50%)↑
Would have had real difficulty defeating Stan Garnett in a Democratic Primary; don’t be surprised to see another Democratic candidate (or two).

 

(D) Stan Garnett (OFF)
After taking long look at the race, Garnett passed on 2018.

 


STATE TREASURER

(R) Brian Watson* (60%)
Former candidate for state house (2012) has the money to finance a long campaign and is plowing ahead already.

(D) Steve Lebsock* (20%)
State Rep. from Northglenn announced intentions to run on March 25.

(R) Justin Everett (20%)
Sleepy Justin could be a thorn in a GOP Primary.

 


SECRETARY OF STATE

(R) Wayne Williams* (80%)
Williams could have a long road convincing voters that 2016 election problems have been properly addressed.

 


 

CD-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (90%)
DeGette will hold this seat until she decides to do something else.

 


CD-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Jared Polis* (90%)
With another decisive victory in 2016, Polis shouldn’t have much to worry about in 2018.

 


CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Scott Tipton* (90%)
Tipton’s surprisingly-easy victory in 2016 should leave him with little opposition in 2018.

 


CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (90%)
Like most of Colorado’s Congressional delegation, Buck isn’t going anywhere.

 


CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (80%)
History shows that Lamborn will probably get another Primary challenger. History also shows that Lamborn will somehow win re-election once again.

(R) Owen Hill (20%)
State Senator apparently focusing on trying to unseat Lamborn in GOP Primary.

 


CD-6 (AURORA)

(R) Mike Coffman* (90%)
Democrats are probably done expending serious resources against Coffman after another big victory in 2016.

 


CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter (90%)
Perlmutter won’t lose if he runs for re-election, but could be looking at a run for Governor instead.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

REPUBLICANS (50%)
Colorado Republicans threw everything they had into keeping their one-seat majority in 2016…and still only held onto a one-seat majority. The GOP won’t be so focused in 2018.

DEMOCRATS (50%)
Too early to call either side here, but hard to see Republicans barely barring the door for a third straight cycle.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
In a tough 2016 for Democrats, they still picked up 3 more seats.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans couldn’t make headway in 2014 or 2016, so no reason to think 2018 will be any different.

 

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2018 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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