March 15, 2010 06:45 PM UTC

PPP: Bennet leads Romanoff, 40-34

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• by: roguestaffer

(As we’ve said before, folks, hypothetical general election matchups don’t mean squat until we get through a primary. It doesn’t matter how Bennet or Romanoff would do against Norton, Wiens or Buck, because only two of these candidates can make it to November. – promoted by Colorado Pols)

From Public Policy:

-In the Democratic Senate contest Michael Bennet leads Andrew Romanoff 40-34. Support in this race may end up having to do more with personalities than ideology, as there’s no real divide in support along liberal/moderate lines for now. Bennet’s up 42-33 with liberals and 40-36 with moderates. Both candidates are pretty well liked by the party electorate. Bennet’s approval is a 57/21 spread with primary voters and Romanoff’s favorability comes down at 45/15. The one place where there is a clear division is along racial lines. Bennet’s up 42-34 with whites while Romanoff has the 42-31 advantage with Hispanics.

For now this is a real race, but it remains to be seen whether Romanoff can compete with Bennet financially and his ability to do so will have a lot to do with whether he can win over the quarter of voters who are undecided. (emphasis added).

Much as I thought. The full memo is here (PDF).

Other notes:

• Bennet has a huge advantage with primary voters, 57%-21%. Regardless of what happens tomorrow, that’s the gap that Romanoff needs to close, and without resources, it becomes a nearly impossible task.
  

• Notice the demographic split: Bennet leads with white voters, 42-34, while Romanoff leads with Latinos, 42-31. Expect Bennet’s campaign to play up his support for comprehensive immigration reform and the DREAM Act, in particular, as the primary keeps going.
  

• Last note: Bennet has a lead among both liberals and moderates.
  

My bottom line: given that the primary seems to be oriented around personalities rather than ideological differences, expect this primary fight to get nasty if Romanoff manages to raise significant funds to get on the air.