( – promoted by ClubTwitty)
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, a consulting firm that frequently works with Republican candidates, has just released a poll on the GOP gubernatorial primary that shows Scott McInnis with an early lead over Josh Penry and Dan Maes. Lots of voters still undecided, as you might expect at this stage.
“The results of this survey clearly demonstrate
that Scott McInnis enjoys broad support and name recognition across the state. Josh
Penry and Dan Maes have a lot of work to do in both support and name recognition at
this early stage of the campaign,” Magellan’s David Flaherty says in a summary of the findings.
McInnis had 34 percent support among self-identified Republican primary voters, compared to 11 percent for Penry and 6 percent for Maes. Undecideds were at 49 percent.
On their shared Western Slope home turf, McInnis leads Penry 44-26, according to the Magellan Poll.
This was an automated telephone poll of 1,649 respondents who identified themselves as Republican primary voters, conducted July 26. Results were weighted based on statewide Republican demographics from the last three cycles.
McInnis had a name ID of 80 percent, compared to 51 percent for Penry and 43 percent for Maes. Despite those name IDs, it’s clear the three candidates are still largely unknown to GOP primary voters. Each had an undecided/never heard of him image result of 50 percent or more.
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Considering Penry did a statewide tour.
Candidates outside of the Front Range are not in good positions to win statewide offices. The demographics of Colorado have changed so much in the last 6-8 years that 85% of voters are now between Ft. Collins and Pueblo.
He’s from Denver. 17th street I think.
We here at pols tend to way overestimate the amount of attention most people pay to any politicians. Door to door canvassing will cure that real quick.
Maes has a name ID that high. Maybe all those “Evergreen businessman Don Maes is also seeking the nomination” tags at the end of Penry and McInnis stories are starting to sink in.
Isn’t this the same pollster that Mike May fired because their work was shit and they couldn’t predict house races to save their ass?
Perhaps I’m thinking of Marco Pollo Data Strategies…?
I have never done a survey, live or automated for Mike May.
No offense, but I’m fairly certain that everyone at the Capitol understands that your polls (while cheap) aren’t reliable.
Just ask the “next fucking state representative from House District 56” how reliable they are (see below).
I can understand that serving with Josh in the legislature you have obviously formed a tight bond with him. The long hours, sharing the legislative experience together, etc. I can also understand why you are attacking this survey and Magellan’s credibility. No one likes to see their friend down 20 points at the start of a long election.
Like all campaigns, these numbers will tighten up, but 1,649 Republican respondents are not pushing the wrong button. And this survey is weighted exactly on Republican primary demogrpahics for the past 3 primary cycles.
McInnis 34%, Penry 11%, Maes 6%, Undecided 49%. That is where the Republican primary for Governor is today.
Sorry but I don’t get excited about someone else’s summary of a document that no one else has seen.
First of all, automated tele-polls are notoriously innacurate and most real pollsters scoff at the results.
Second, Flaherty has been telling everyone on the planet that he is working for McInnis, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the results above are after a pro-McInnis push.
Post the poll. And post the whole thing, Flaherty, because I will know if you have edited it.
The 43% name recognition for Maes, by itself, is enough to start asking serious questions about the accuracy of the poll. I’m sorry, but half the readers of Colorado Pols don’t know who Don Maes is, much less nearly half a reasonable polling sample.
Are on Magellan’s homepage:
http://magellanstrategies.com/
They are on our website at http://www.MagellanStrategies.com. If you need help understanding how to read them please give me a call at 303-861-8585. I’m in the office all day.
How does Don Maes have such high name ID? Seems absurdly inflated to me.
Would you give a rat’s ass how much name ID Don Maes had?
nice one, RSB
When we calculate name ID we count anyone that responded “favorable”, “unfavorable”, or “undecided”. If you look at table 3-2 in the crosstabs or page 5 of the summary, you will see that Maes has 10% favorable, 5% unfavorable, and 28% undecided. That comes to 43% name id. The assumption is that people have heard of Dan Maes, but do not have an opinion of him.
If you want to calculate name id by just using “favorable” and “unfavorable” responses, the “hard” name id for the three candidates would be McInnis 47%, Penry 23%, and Maes 15%.
It is also important to note that Dan Maes is well known in El Paso county which contuributes 15% to the overall survey results.
15% hard name ID sounds about right.
Thanks for weighing in on this and clarifying for us David. It’s very much appreciated.
Next time I will be more clear or provide both calculations, “hard” and “soft” name ID.
The polls I have seen had McInnis at 40% Name ID and Penry at 20%.
helped McInnis get some valuable attention and boosted his name recognition while all the other candidates are doing the usual political things, if he’s gone up 7 points and Penry’s only gone up 3 points since the polls you’ve seen.
McInnis has served as a CD3 congressman for a long time – his NAME ID is very justified
I’m not endorsing Penry or McInnis, as I’m staying out of the primary – so I don’t have any need to defend either campaign
Overall – this poll is accurate – that’s my main point
I was talking about the recent and relative increase, when both Penry and McInnis have been in the news. As you must know, name ID is a fleeting thing.
But I was also kind of kidding — wouldn’t it be funny if the mixed-up mountains actually helped McInnis. You never know in politics.
Penry has just begun taking jabs. McInnis isn’t getting any press. The pol is a snapshot of right now. Penry is way more aggressive and McInnis won’t have the stomach to fight back on the same terms. The old guard R’s favor McInnis but the old guard doesn’t control the party any more. None of the R’s formerly in office who I have spoken to who support McInnis could themselves get elected today. The truly interesting thing about this race is whether Penry will moderate his stance as Minority Leader during 2010 in preparation for the general election or whether he sticks to his extremism to win the primary. While staying in the Senate may help him get free press, everything he says will be very much on the record. Can’t hide or backslide later.
First off, Magellan did all of my personal polling during our HD56 run, including all of our data work
David Flaherty and his team are TOP CLASS — I trust this poll 110%
Regarding the meaning of the poll –
Senator Penry has done some terrific things for our Party, but I rarely saw him in Pueblo and Colorado Springs
McInnis is very well known in Pueblo, but has done little work in Colorado Springs
Overall – both have missed a terrific opportunity to cultivate some Front Range areas that are hungry to see their leadership
The fact that neither candidate has really cultivated El Paso County (and Douglas, for that matter) doesn’t speak well of their game plans – I honestly don’t see the factors of this race changing that drastically, from here on out, mainly due to the fact that golden opportunities have already been missed
Lastly, Republican primary voters are VERY stubborn – Senator Penry has a very large uphill battle, if he’s losing 34 to 11 — primary voters are not easy to change the minds of, and normally, they’ll pick seniority over fresh ideas
my 2 cents….
your defeat?
He predicted a win, heading into late September and early October
He also accurately polled that our numbers dropped terribly, right after the passage of the bail out (around Oct 10th 2008 or so)
lastly, his May 2008 poll showed us behind Scanlan by around 30 points
the reason why David Flaherty is the BEST pollster and data guru in Colorado is because –
1. He is very good about his work and extremely accurate
2. He encourages candidates to be themselves and he helps to build a roadmap in regards to a candidate’s strengths – believe me, there are TONS of consultants out there who will completely HIDE their candidate, allow no media access, and fill them up with shallow talking points
For example – few pollsters/advisors would go along with a pro-monorail campaign — that was one of the major issues that kept us competitive in the Democratic 56 – Flaherty was a big reason why we recovered in 56 and almost won
A couple more photo ops with Swastika Guy and he’ll have El Paso County eating out of his hand.
you guy are terrible!
You’ve spoken very highly of Mike May numerous times on this blog and others. Have you asked him who he’s supporting in this primary race for governor and why?
Just wondering.
Minority Leader May is a father-figure to me – wonderful man, terrific mentor – I’ll say “yes” to pretty much anything he asks of me
I’m pretty sure he’s supporting Penry – I haven’t talked to him about it directly, as yet
If you are going to vouch for the statistical rigor of a polling outfit, you really shouldn’t make a claim that is statistically ridiculous.
Could you elaborate? If Penry has uttered one yet, it’s a closely-held secret.
A poll this early might be meaningless as a predictor of the primary.
However, it’s great news for McInnis’ fundraising effort, which is precisely why it was released. Nobody wants to donate money to a guy who can’t win. The poll says McInnis CAN win. Not necessarily that he will, but that he CAN. That’s something that he can, quite literally, take to the bank.
You don’t think Penry is polling? Ask yourself why his own internals haven’t been leaked yet. My guess is that they confirm the McInnis numbers. If they were better, he’d be leaking them all over hell.
Interesting points in this morning’s Sentinel about this poll.
1. McInnis paid for it.
2. McInnis paid for it.
http://www.gjsentinel.com/hp/c…
Penry’s comment seemed appropriate for the circumstances:
So you will then ‘throw cold water’ on every Penry-commissioned poll since he’ll be paying for those. I won’t hold my breath.
Is it just me or are people totally underestimating the significance of McInnis breaking campaign finance law?! As if this video isnt going to end up on TV? As if this doesnt land in the mailbox of every voter in the state.
I mean seriously.
“Shawn Tonner is running my 527”
That is the kinda thing people go to jail for.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
the kind of thing people go to jail for.
Can you name the last time a campaign finance violation was even prosecuted in Colorado?
This might get passed around during the primary, but any damage has already been done. Regular voters don’t care.
“Regular voters wont care” that someone a step from the Governor’s mansion is breaking the law!
I beg to differ. This will be used more in the general than the primary. Progress Now are the ones already working on the creative for this one. You’re nuts!
can you name a single successful prosecution of campaign finance law violations in recent Colorado history? There have been far more egregious examples than this, which involved voters file under the “everyone does it” category and less interested voters don’t understand. Progress Now can do all the “creative” they want on this, but it just isn’t that big a deal.
That said, there are far more damaging McInnis lapses that will get plenty of attention.
Ethics Watch recently won a campaign violation case against a pro-Republican 527 that was involved with the Garfield County commissioner races in 2008.
Incidently, McInnis was involved with some of those 527’s that went on the attack against the GarCo Democratic commissioner candidates in the last election…..
I said prosecuted, not appeared before an administrative hearing, but I’ll take that case. Tell me then, exactly how did the same group’s previous violation in Weld County affect its ability to conduct successful campaigns in Garco? Answer: It didn’t.
Garco residents were well aware what was going on and, in the end, it simply didn’t matter enough, for all the breathless headlines about buying the election. (See: Polis primary victory for more detail on the effectiveness of that charge.)
The 527 was fined just under $10,000, which amounts to a rounding error in their book keeping, and Shires moves on to do the same thing over and over.
Unless there’s a criminal prosecution, this stuff doesn’t even break the radar of the average voter, and McInnis’ voice mail message doesn’t cut it for that.
I’m not saying what McInnis (and his associated 527s) has done isn’t wrong, and that it shouldn’t attract the attention of watchdog groups — but it doesn’t matter to most voters. Campaigns see this kind of thing as a cost of doing business and voters see it, if they see it at all, as an “everybody does it” brand of corner-cutting.
They are seriously funny.
It looks like McInnis (in his typical caracature form) with his wife filming (without a tri-pod) in front of like, 6 people.
There is ZERO comprehensive message.
At one point, he tries to talk about experience but totally over-acts and falls over the top.
Can anyone say: TRAIN WRECK!
They were from a front row guy at a function of about 60 people at someone’s house in Ft. Collins.
Hey Newbie…did you catch Politico yesterday with Ritter pictured as one of the most likely to lose. Now that campaign is a TRAIN WRECK.
The age skew.
Older voters are the most likely primary voters, but it is a very frightening situation for the GOP if this pole is accurate.
I thought that was interesting. Also the very high undecided in CDs 4,5,6 — Republican bases. No big suprise that it’s lower in 3, and the few Repubs they found in 1 and 2 seemed a little more decided.
In polling this far out, it’s not suprising to see high undecided, but when the undecided is twice the “lead” candidate, it shows a very open race…
I hope Penry reads this poll and vows out. He has no chance. If McInnis already has this much of a lead, it’s over, especially since it’s obvious that McInnis is going to kill Penry in the fundraising department.
That’s like saying….Everyone should bow out as Giuliani and Clinton have pretty much locked their party primaries up.
Were they the pollster for Bentley Rayburn or the “neutral” pollster that was to determine if Rayburn or Crank had so little support that they should drop out?
If it is the same group that did Rayburn’s polling they are not well regarded.
I know the situation you are talking about and we were not involved in the “Crank-Rayburn poll agreement” debacle. Magellan did some mapping and precinct analysis for the Crank Campaign but we did not do any polling in that primary race.
Great to see you here, David!
Sock-puppets always have, and always will, lose in the better debate