August 02, 2017 12:57 PM UTC

Yes Virginia, Republicans Could Lose The House

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• by: Colorado Pols

As The Hill reports, a combination of historical trends and unprecedented White House chaos is making the prospect of large gains by Democrats in the U.S. House increasingly likely, to the point flipping control of the chamber and potentially then some:

Democrats are feeling encouraged about their prospects of winning back the House next year despite a string of special election losses.

A turbulent White House has left President Trump’s approval rating at a dismal 40 percent, and Democrats ended the House session watching the ObamaCare repeal effort collapse in the Senate.

“There are a lot of reasons to think that the House will be in play next year,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper at the University of Virginia…

Midterm elections for first-term presidents are historically ruinous for the party that controls the White House.

By Sabato’s analysis, the president’s party has shed House seats in 36 of 39 midterms stretching back more than 150 years, with an average loss of 33 seats — well above the 24 pickups the Democrats need to take the chamber next year. [Pols emphasis]

President Barack Obama’s first midterm election in 2010 was an historic disaster for the Democratic Party, losing 63 seats in the House and setting themselves up to lose the U.S. Senate majority four years later. By comparison, the 2018 landscape features an opposing electorate to the party in power every bit as fired up as the “Tea Party” was going into 2010–and a President who popularity has fallen farther and faster than any other President in modern history. As the next election looms larger on the horizon, the GOP’s failure to get anything meaningful accomplished despite total control of the federal government is escalating into a full-blown crisis.

The recent special election in Georgia illustrates the problem Republicans face well. Although the GOP retained the seat, their margin of victory plunged to an extent that, if it were to hold true elsewhere, would result in massive defeats for Republican House candidates all over the country. It’s by no means a certainty that this is how it will play out, and Democrats have a lot of work to do to win back the electorate–and yes, that’s more than just being against Donald Trump. Articulating a positive case for the Democratic agenda, something we haven’t seen in American politics since Democrats lost their majorities in Congress, is what everybody seems to agree is their key to success in the next election.

But undeniably, the wind is now at Team Blue’s back.