Polling Shows No Favorite Among GOP in CD-4

14 Comments

by: Colorado Pols

Polling recently completed by Magellan Strategies in CD-4 finds that no potential Republican challenger to Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey has an advantage at this point:

The ballot test of potential candidates revealed State Rep. Cory Gardner (18%) with a 6 point lead over former Weld County Commissioner Bill Jerke (12%), UC Regent Tom Lucero (11%), and Fort Collins Councilmember Diggs Brown (11%). Forty eight percent of respondents were undecided.

The ballot test by region shows significant differences that reflect the local support of each candidate.

Among Larimer County Republican primary voters, Diggs Brown leads with 19%, followed by Tom Lucero

with 15%, Bill Jerke with 6% and Cory Gardner with 4%. Among Weld County Republican primary voters, Bill Jerke leads with 34%, followed by Cory Gardner with 9%, Tom Lucero with 8% and Diggs Brown with 6%. Among the 15 counties within the district that do not include Larimer, Weld and Boulder counties, Cory Gardner has a significant lead with 58% of the vote, followed by Tom Lucero with 7%, Bill Jerke with 4% and Diggs Brown with 3%.

Among voters 65 and older, the largest voting sub group of Republican primary voters (43%), the ballot test is a virtual tie. Among this sub group Cory Gardner and Diggs Brown are tied with 14%, followed by Tom Lucero and Bill Jerke with 13%.

The image ratings of the potential candidates are as expected considering the early nature of the race. Tom Lucero’s image rating is 10 FAV/18 UNFAV, Cory Gardner’s image rating is 20 FAV/9 UNFAV, Bill Jerke’s rating is 13 FAV/11 UNFAV, and Diggs Brown image rating is 14 FAV/9 UNFAV.

While this is still really early, what is interesting here is that longtime golden boy Cory Gardner does not have the advantage that many in the GOP might have expected. In fact, other candidates are much stronger in areas of the district with the highest number of voters, which is not good news for Gardner.

14 thoughts on “Polling Shows No Favorite Among GOP in CD-4”

twas brillig says:

April 14, 2009 at 9:19 pm

when writing in this thread last week.

Sure he can’t raise much money right now, but that’s no excuse not to be meeting and greeting in Larimer and Weld Counties. Clearly, he’s not as serious about running as everyone thought.

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twas brillig says:

April 14, 2009 at 9:28 pm

who’s stuck in the Guard overseas in Germany (or just outside of a certain Pakistani cave, to hear his folks tell of it), I’d be happy that I at least rate in a wide open field. However, I’d “can” the twitter messages about my malfunctioning toilet in Stuttgart if the local folks are so busy shedding tears at my “sacrifice.”

More unfortunate than the clogged toilet, however, Diggs is also “stuck” with a campaign manager who has just lost his own Fort Collins city council race by 19 points, and all they gave him was a “You’re Under Investigation!” t-shirt for a finance violation.

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1. Colorado Pols says:
  
  April 14, 2009 at 9:43 pm
  
  If Brown sticks with Boucher, then he’s probably done. In a multi-candidate primary, something like that kills you.
  
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  1. twas brillig says:
    
    April 14, 2009 at 10:01 pm
    
    to urge Andrew Boucher to run for Fort Collins mayor in 2011!
    
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Aristotle says:

April 14, 2009 at 9:50 pm

She’s a proven winner! Run Marilyn run!

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twas brillig says:

April 14, 2009 at 10:23 pm

I’ve got nothing against Diggs, but I can’t help it. This is just too much. To quote draftdiggs.com:

Isn’t it time we elected a hero to Congress?

Diggs Brown is a Major in the U.S. Army Special Forces. He’s on front lines in the Global War on Terror, even today protecting us from the terrorist threat.

From Diggs Brown’s dispatches from the front lines (this is not satire):

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1. OneEyedOwl says:
  
  April 15, 2009 at 12:52 am
  
  Thanks for posting 🙂
  
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One Queer Dude says:

April 14, 2009 at 11:23 pm

He needs to be added to the Big Line.

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1. twas brillig says:
  
  April 14, 2009 at 11:26 pm
  
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2. Leonard Smalls says:
  
  April 15, 2009 at 3:25 am
  
  Isn’t Brophy supporting Gardner? I heard that all the right-wing groups Brophy needed support from (Dudley Brown & co) went to Gardner so he got out.
  
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  1. A-bob says:
    
    April 15, 2009 at 4:47 am
    
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monumentman says:

April 15, 2009 at 12:09 am

Actually…the crosstabs. Tom Lucero is already upside down 1:2 on fav/unfav and Jerke is 1/1. Not good spots when name ID is low. Diggs is 1.5/1 fav/unfav. Gardner is pretty strong with 2:1.

Interestingly Gardner is the only candidate that has any strength outside his district. In a 3 or 4 way primary Gardner is already walking away…and in a straight up primary he’d probably open it up even more.

After Schaffer retired and it was a 4 way I doubt the polling showed anyone district wide who is polling as well as Gardner is among primary voters now.

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1. twas brillig says:
  
  April 15, 2009 at 12:12 am
  
  Oh, man. Good stuff.
  
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Craig says:

April 15, 2009 at 1:05 am

Remember, the guy is pro-choice, a death sentence in any Republican primary.

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