April 14, 2009 09:07 PM UTC

Polling Shows No Favorite Among GOP in CD-4

•  
• by: Colorado Pols

Polling recently completed by Magellan Strategies in CD-4 finds that no potential Republican challenger to Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey has an advantage at this point:

The ballot test of potential candidates revealed State Rep. Cory Gardner (18%) with a 6 point lead over former Weld County Commissioner Bill Jerke (12%), UC Regent Tom Lucero (11%), and Fort Collins Councilmember Diggs Brown (11%). Forty eight percent of respondents were undecided.

The ballot test by region shows significant differences that reflect the local support of each candidate.

Among Larimer County Republican primary voters, Diggs Brown leads with 19%, followed by Tom Lucero

with 15%, Bill Jerke with 6% and Cory Gardner with 4%. Among Weld County Republican primary voters, Bill Jerke leads with 34%, followed by Cory Gardner with 9%, Tom Lucero with 8% and Diggs Brown with 6%. Among the 15 counties within the district that do not include Larimer, Weld and Boulder counties, Cory Gardner has a significant lead with 58% of the vote, followed by Tom Lucero with 7%, Bill Jerke with 4% and Diggs Brown with 3%.

Among voters 65 and older, the largest voting sub group of Republican primary voters (43%), the ballot test is a virtual tie. Among this sub group Cory Gardner and Diggs Brown are tied with 14%, followed by Tom Lucero and Bill Jerke with 13%.

The image ratings of the potential candidates are as expected considering the early nature of the race. Tom Lucero’s image rating is 10 FAV/18 UNFAV, Cory Gardner’s image rating is 20 FAV/9 UNFAV, Bill Jerke’s rating is 13 FAV/11 UNFAV, and Diggs Brown image rating is 14 FAV/9 UNFAV.

While this is still really early, what is interesting here is that longtime golden boy Cory Gardner does not have the advantage that many in the GOP might have expected. In fact, other candidates are much stronger in areas of the district with the highest number of voters, which is not good news for Gardner.