CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
September 29, 2016 08:16 AM UTC
13 Comments
Democrat pollster publishes pro-Democrat propaganda poll. Zzz
First…. it ain't just PPP.
Second….PPP was pretty accurate on the presidential race last time around.
Now by all means…. feel free to go back to sleep. In your hide out in Mom's basement.
You probably think Trump romped on the 1st debate too. Facts don't matter when you can manufacture your own reality (actually you can't but dumb farts like you never stop trying).
The other thing that is going to drag the dumpster down in Colorado is Glenn. This is one state where the dreadful, awful, stupid Republican senate candidate is going to be a gigantic drag on the presidential ticket. What a terrible candidate in a state that was supposed to be a prime pickup opportunity for the party of hate.
While you're sleeping through your Faux News segment waiting for the Ex-Lax to kick in, dedicated Dems are out in the streets doing GOTV ground operations that could make a 1-2% difference. You can pretend that Colorado is Trumps for the taking but he is going to have to do more than snort into a microphone to win in this state.
I bet you also believe Trump won the debate because all those unscientific online polls that were heavily manipulated told you he did.
Interesting links to RealClear comparison between this presidential election and the elections of 2012 and 2008 at the same stage.
Election 2016: Race 4 Yrs Ago Today, 8 Yrs, 12 Yrs | 2016 vs. 2012, 2008, 2004
Is this PPP's first Colorado presidential poll?
I can't find any earlier ones. RCP does not include this poll or any earlier PPP Colorado polls and has Trump +.5.
If there is no baseline, how can one rationally draw the conclusion that there has been movement based on something?
My sense is there will be no movement Hillary's way based on the debate and a dem house poll with no previous polling does not seem very persuasive.
Obviously she'd win in a landslide!
If you look at all the polls released yesterday and today, its clear there has been some movement toward Clinton. I attribute that to Clinton's performance Monday night at the debate. Is the election over? Not even close.
Again this year some of the polls are all over the map. For example, RCP includes a poll from Gravis conducted September 22-23 which has Trump up by 4% here in Colorado. During the U.S. Senate primary in Arizona, the same firm, a few days before the primary, had McCain losing by 13 points and as we all know he won easily. There weren't many other polls in Arizona but all the others had McCain winning.
There are two factors to look for when analyzing the RCP averages. One is whether or not some of or one of the polls is an outlier in the same race and second, is the same polling firm that may be an outlier here also releasing polls in other races in other states that appear to be outliers. Ten years ago when Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) ran for reelection, all the polls had him winning the general election by between 12 and 15 points, except Rasmussen who had the Democratic candidate within 5 points right before the election. Schwarzenegger won by 17 points. The same year Gov. Strickland (D) of Ohio was running for his first term (he lost to Kasich in 2010) and all the polls had him defeating his Republican opponent by between 15 to 20 points, except Rasmussen who had Blackwell (R) within 3 or 4 points. Strickland won by 23 points. Rasmussen was just plain wrong in both races. For whatever reason (i.e. methodology, sampling or polling philosophy), Rasmussen was way off.
Just two years ago, one polling firm had Beauprez 10 points ahead of Gov. Hickenlooper about two weeks before the election. I don't remember which polling firm that had Beauprez winning. All the other polling firms had Hickenlooper up by 4 or 5 points. Hickenlooper won by a 3.5 point margin.
We have a large number of polling firms operating in the United States and the point is obvious. Sometimes, for whatever reason, a particular firm is on the wrong track during a given election cycle or a firm that's been on track for several election cycles becomes the outlier in the next cycle due to a change in management or methodology. I think RCP should attempt to identify the outliers and take them out of the average.
Yup, and in the fantasy world where Gravis is a reliable and accurate pollster, there may actually be some credence to that claim. Unfortunately here in reality, they're shit.
Gotta stop letting those rusty anchors drag ya down bub. Cut yourself loose and ride the waves.
You must be snorting some powerful shit to have no sense that Trump tanked on Monday night. Can you even feel your face?
"There has been no movement towards Clinton and disregard those Republican newspapers like the Arizona Republic and Dallas Morning News that are endorsing a Democrat for the first time ever. Nope no movement at all except for the pathetic Darryl Glenn dragging down all the Republicans in Colorado. He is probably an even worse candidate than Trump if that is possible."
From the PPP archives
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016-archive.html
That ICE endorsement? Have you ever heard of The Hatch Act?