U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Michael Bennet
(D) Phil Weiser
60%↑
50%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Jena Griswold
(D) David Seligman
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) J. Danielson
(R) Sheri Davis
50%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(D) Jeff Bridges
(R) Kevin Grantham
40%
40%
30%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Trisha Calvarese
(D) Eileen Laubacher
90%
20%
20%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Manny Rutinel
(D) Shannon Bird
45%↓
40%
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
January 30, 2009 08:52 PM UTC
41 Comments
approval rating is low enough for a primary challenge.
No one wants a mediocre governor to be beaten by a nut job. At some point it becomes whether he can win or not, not if the party happens to be upset with him.
This is a particularly tough time in the state, a strong, capable gov. would be nice. A choice between Ritter and Tancredo would be a horrible thing for Colorado, IMO.
Other than gadfly challengers, there is almost no chance that Ritter will be challenged in the race to win the Democratic Party nomination.
I have a very hard time seeing how any Democrat would choose to take him on and manage to get over the caucus process threshold, or get enough signature petitions to get on the ballot to square off against Ritter in a primary.
The credible challenger part (I still say DeGette goes for it). But it probably should.
Or I’m just upset with him and will think him brilliant by 2010.
Governor Ritter irritated all the folks in Moffat County with his “we need to plan for them” comment regarding Vermillion Basin. He was offended when the County Commissioners called him a Dictator. All of Colorado is feeling him now and his polls reflect it. Support collective bargaining before he vetoed it. Midnight executive orders. Amendment 58 and Oil and Gas regs written with his enviro friends behind closed door. Hickenlooper, J. Salazar, and Perlmutter passed over. Welcome to the West Slopes World under the imperial Governor Ritter.
The new oil and gas regulations were not written behind closed doors and they have been significantly revised in favor of the industry in many critical ways. The Colorado Oil and Gas Commission along with industry have spent well over one year drafting and revising the new regulations in the light of day and now the legislature will be able to amend them if they see fit.
I don’t know which of his executive orders you are referring to but if its the one dealing with public employees it was issue during the day, not at midnight.
You certainly have the right to criticise any public official you want to but your characterizations should be based on facts.
but what am I?
almost all the precincts in Western CO (even those that supported McCain) shifted more toward the Dems in the last election. No offense, but Moffat County is hardly representative of CO, even of western CO.
What percentage of the CO’s population is in Moffat County?
And as R36 points out, you are ‘just plain wrong’ on your interpretation of the year-long, public, and iterative process that led to the O&G regs.
n/t
I thought that (at least in the presidential race) there were a higher percentage of Dem votes than in 2004. Still not enough for Obama to carry Mesa County, but the gap between Dems and Repubs shrunk according to the info I saw. Could be wrong (it does happen) and if you have numbers that show otherwise, please post.
Thanks
In fact, his latest poll has him at 58% of the electorate approves of his handling of the governorship and 28% disapproves. He has a 2 to 1 positive over negative rating which is just where a major statewide elected official should be.
Source?
Because 58/28 is a long way off from 47/40.
As with any comparison between two polls the way the questions are worded and the make-up of the sample can make all the difference in the world.
I’m not trying to discount PPP’s poll but Colorado can be a tricky state to poll in and I don’t think PPP has done polling here before, although I could be wrong aobut that.
They polled the Senate race last year.
They’re considered a “Democratic” polling company too, so the results were surprising.
Freakin’ hilarious.
dozens of public polls here in the last year and turned out remarkably close to the final vote for Senate and presidential. These polls they do on spec — throwing a question out there to keep themselves in front of anyone who might hire them — tend to be a little squishy (witness the poll out the day before the Ritter poll, which asked how Bennet would do against Suthers and McInnis, who pulled themselves from the race after PPP was already in the field), but they have a proven record in Colorado.
Races with incumbents are basically referrenda on the incumbent.
Yes, the GOP doesn’t have a candidate lined up yet, but that doesn’t mean the Ritter isn’t vulnerable.
It isn’t uncommon for a challenger to an incumbent polling under 50% to trail for a long time by substantial margins until the challenger’s name recognition catches up with the sitting elected official, and then surge towards the end of the race.
This is because few people are undecided about an incumbent in a high elected office, but many people don’t know much about a challenger.
Are you talking about Holtzman? Wiens?
Both Beauprez and Tancredo have high name rec, and the PPP poll showed they would both get beaten. If either of them ran in a GOP primary, it would shock me if neither of them won–either by splitting the vote, or because there weren’t any other candidates conservative enough for state Republicans.
I remember there being a lot of optimism among Democrats in 2004, both in the Presidential race and in several Senate races, based on the fact that various Republicans had approval ratings under 50%. Also based on the rule that the undecided break for the challenger.
Historically both these things were true, but in the modern electorate I don’t think they are. There are a lot fewer swing voters than there used to be; the electorate as a whole seems to have moods that swing toward one party or another, but the influence of individual voters is much smaller. That’s why polling has been a lot more accurate lately than it was in 2000 for example.
Basically I think the fact that the country is divided in a very partisan way means that most elections are national. In a Democratic year, low-approval Democratic incumbents tended to still win re-election, while moderate-approval Republican incumbents lost. If 2010 is another Democratic year, Ritter will win no matter what his approval rating is.
Over 50% polling incumbents were 100% re-elected. Under 50% polling incumbents were 50-50.
….how much is Tancredo going to get?
nor will Both Ways Bob be the candidate.
Moreover, the hispanic vote does not have to go to the R, it just has to stay home. David is correct in his post that this is still a purple state and a state-wide Democrat needs all of its base to turn out in big numbers. That includes latinos in Denver, Adams, Pueblo (and yes El Paso) as well as Weld.
Low turnout is problematic for Dems. Also, Democrats traditionally do better in presidential elections years because turnout goes up. Mid-term elections without something/someone driving Dem voters to the polls can be problematic for Ritter.
He really needs to get his act together. He also better hope that it is the Denver Post that goes away and not the Rocky. Dean Singleton has sworn that he will do everything he can to see that Ritter is defeated in 2010. Look for another frontpage editorial endorsing whomever is Ritter’s opponent.
The only question is whether the GOP has a primary
that the guy who lost to the guy who lost to him last time is running.
The question is whether anyone can out-found him. This is the same guy who raised over $1mil for his own campaign (waged against a sitting Congressman and former Chairman of our state party) and over $2mil for Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Who wants to go against that arsenal?
The economy sucks and he has no giant success to point to. This is a purple state and in these conditions anyone would be vulnerable.
With that said, I think D will still beat R in ’10 and the Republicans don’t have any decent candidate (yet).
I agree. However, Ritters 47/40 approval rating does not look good. And, the very modest 6% over both ways Bob is down right scary. If the economy continues to suck then the 2010 Gov and Senate races will be very, very tight. If Pres. Obama is right when he says that the economy will probably get worse before it gets better then we may be in trouble politically in 2010. One thing that is going for us is the state of the republican party in Colorado.
This is good information to have Pols, and good reporting!
One thing that I am curious about is whether the economy is going to end up factoring into his popularity.
If people are dumb enought to listen to all the liberals on this site you would believe that any and all Republicans have no chance to win any seat in Colorado.
Get Rid of Ritter! If people say it, it will come true.
Everyone, say it together! Or Tinker Bell will die!
Get Rid of Ritter!
Tinker Bell is not who we are worried about it is Colorado Will Die.
Right mantra RedGreen wrong entity.
or lack thereof is well-established, who really cares what you think?
etc. etc. (That’s about 3 minutes of my time, one post after another of 100% wrong political prognostication.
you had to spend 3 minutes digging those up. And on such a nice day!
the real crime was stepping on that Tinkerbell line! It cracked me up.