August 30, 2016 02:34 PM UTC

Trump On The Air in Colorado

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• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: The Washington Post tries to sort out the mishmash of claims in this ad without much success:

Amateur hour: Trump’s new TV ad cites two contradictory tax plans — one that Trump has explicitly ruled out and another that he has yet to endorse — raising more questions about what policies the GOP nominee actually supports. NBC News’s Benjy Sarlin looked at the small print in the 30-second spot: “For the ad’s claim that ‘working families get tax relief,’ it refers viewers not to an analysis of Trump’s own tax proposals, but to a white paper by House GOP leaders about their own tax reform plan. Similarly, the next section promising ‘millions of new jobs’ directs viewers to an analysis of the House GOP plan by the conservative Tax Foundation. Trump has not endorsed the House GOP plan outright, but his new proposal, announced earlier this month, has some similarities…”

“Things get even more confusing as the commercial continues. The ad’s next two claims that Trump would make ‘wages go up’ and ‘small businesses thrive’ refer to his old tax plan from last year, which had drastically different rates, including a 0% bracket at the bottom and a top rate of 25%. The on-screen citation directs viewers to a Tax Foundation analysis of that now-defunct proposal from September 2015. Trump erased his old plan from his website shortly before he announced his new one in a speech to the Detroit Economic Club earlier this month.”

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AP reports via CBS4, but you’ve probably already seen it:

The campaign is expecting to air a new ad focused on the economy as soon as Monday in nine states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida, where the campaign has already been on the air, along with New Hampshire, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada — all battleground states.

Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, has so far been badly outspent by his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, and groups supporting her. Since clinching her party’s nomination in early June, Clinton has spent more than $77 million on television and radio advertising, largely targeting voters in battleground states, according to Kantar Media’s political ad tracker…

The new investment comes amid signs that Trump’s lagging poll numbers may be improving against Clinton’s following a campaign reboot.

We haven’t seen new polling numbers to know if Colorado is part of Donald Trump’s rumored recovery, but it’s reasonable to assume that the poll numbers will tighten somewhat between now and Election Day.

Either that, or there will be no reason to keep running ads.

It’s worth noting that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has already stopped advertising in Colorado, focusing on field campaign efforts here with an expectation that the race is won. That could quickly change if Trump shows recovering strength in this state, but Clinton’s double-digit lead is a formidable rampart to chip away at.

We expect Trump’s campaign will be watching closely for a return on this investment in upcoming polls, which will justify or repudiate the efficacy of further spending in Colorado. Is this ad persuasive enough to make a dent in Clinton’s lead, or just going through the motions ahead of the inevitable?