January 12, 2016 11:47 AM UTC

Donald Trump CAN Be the GOP Nominee; What Does That Mean for Colorado?

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• by: Colorado Pols

Republican critics of Republican Presidential frontrunner Donald Trump have often used some variation of the line that “Trump won’t be the nominee” as an excuse to avoid offering an opinion on some of the more bombastic statements from His Hairness.

Congressman Mike Coffman (R-Aurora) — who for some reason is absolutely terrified of saying anything about Trump — has used this very excuse himself as he ducks and dodges repeated attempts by reporters to get him to talk about Trump. This is odd for a number of reasons, as we’ve written before, not the least because Coffman has already publicly endorsed Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for President. As our friends at “The Fix” reported over the weekend, not only can Trump win the GOP nomination for President…recent history suggests he’s in the catbird’s seat:

But the fact that Trump is ahead nationally and that he is running first or second in Iowa and New Hampshire is meaningful, argues Sam Wang over at the Princeton Election Consortium.

Wang’s argument is that based on recent electoral history and where Trump stands in polling today, the real estate billionaire actually has a very good chance at being the Republican nominee.

Here’s the historical comparison from Sam Wang, with Trump’s current poll positions factored into the equation:

As Wang says about the numbers: “This emphasizes the fact that based on polling data, Donald Trump is in as strong a position to get his party’s nomination as Hillary Clinton in 2016, George W. Bush in 2000, or Al Gore in 2000.”

Trump “won’t be the nominee?” We’ll see — history would seem to suggest otherwise. If Trump is the GOP nominee, it’s going to make things mighty awkward for Coffman when if reporters ask why he ducked Trump questions for so many months.

Should Trump capture the Republican nomination for President, it will also have a significant effect in Colorado’s increasingly-crowded GOP Senate Primary. The main argument that critics make against Sen. Tim Neville — still the odds-on favorite to win the June Primary — is to question Neville’s “electability” in a General Election matchup with incumbent Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Denver).

National polls have shown that potential GOP voters aren’t concerned about the question of “electability” in a General Election, and a Trump victory would prove that point. If “electability” doesn’t hurt Trump, it becomes a much weaker argument to use against Neville in advance of the June Primary.