Donald Trump CAN Be the GOP Nominee; What Does That Mean for Colorado?

Hair by Donald, head by Coffman.

Hair by Donald, head by Coffman.

Republican critics of Republican Presidential frontrunner Donald Trump have often used some variation of the line that “Trump won’t be the nominee” as an excuse to avoid offering an opinion on some of the more bombastic statements from His Hairness.

Congressman Mike Coffman (R-Aurora) — who for some reason is absolutely terrified of saying anything about Trump — has used this very excuse himself as he ducks and dodges repeated attempts by reporters to get him to talk about Trump. This is odd for a number of reasons, as we’ve written before, not the least because Coffman has already publicly endorsed Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for President. As our friends at “The Fix” reported over the weekend, not only can Trump win the GOP nomination for President…recent history suggests he’s in the catbird’s seat:

But the fact that Trump is ahead nationally and that he is running first or second in Iowa and New Hampshire is meaningful, argues Sam Wang over at the Princeton Election Consortium.

Wang’s argument is that based on recent electoral history and where Trump stands in polling today, the real estate billionaire actually has a very good chance at being the Republican nominee.

Here’s the historical comparison from Sam Wang, with Trump’s current poll positions factored into the equation:

SamWang-Chart-Jan2016

As Wang says about the numbers: “This emphasizes the fact that based on polling data, Donald Trump is in as strong a position to get his party’s nomination as Hillary Clinton in 2016, George W. Bush in 2000, or Al Gore in 2000.”

State Sen. Tim Neville.

State Sen. Tim Neville.

Trump “won’t be the nominee?” We’ll see — history would seem to suggest otherwise. If Trump is the GOP nominee, it’s going to make things mighty awkward for Coffman when if reporters ask why he ducked Trump questions for so many months.

Should Trump capture the Republican nomination for President, it will also have a significant effect in Colorado’s increasingly-crowded GOP Senate Primary. The main argument that critics make against Sen. Tim Neville — still the odds-on favorite to win the June Primary — is to question Neville’s “electability” in a General Election matchup with incumbent Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Denver).

National polls have shown that potential GOP voters aren’t concerned about the question of “electability” in a General Election, and a Trump victory would prove that point. If “electability” doesn’t hurt Trump, it becomes a much weaker argument to use against Neville in advance of the June Primary.

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11 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. davebarnes says:

    "incumbent Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Denver)"
    I like what you did there.

  2. FrankUnderwood says:

    That picture of Coffman is just too disturbing………….. Now the one of his wife decked out like Piper Chapman is a hoot.

  3. ohwilleke says:

    It isn't as if Ted Cruz is a warm, snuggly sane alternative to Trump anyhow.  The GOP nomination is a race with a lot of choices that are very bad for the country and very popular with the GOP base.

    • BlueCat says:

      That's the GOP's problem right now. The establishment hates both Trump and Cruz but even though neither of them commands anywhere close to 40 or 50% and that usually means plenty of room for someone else to emerge to collect all of the anti votes this time there is no single likely alternative candidate for the non-Trump or non-Cruz votes to rally to.  

      Up until very recently I was tending to buy the judgement of Rs like Flake who were saying… it's not going to happen. Trump won't be the nominee. As of now it 's hard to see how that doesn't happen.

      If it does I don't believe any Dem candidate will be more unelectable than Trump. Trump pretty much erases  any electability issues HRC, Bernie or any other Dem might have and provides Dems with a Republican candidate who will do even worse with African Americans, Latinos, women and numerous other demos than Romney did.

      It's inconceivable, for instance, that Trump could take anywhere near 34% of the Latino vote. That alone makes it impossible for him to win the WH. Fear of Trump would also erase any lack of enthusiasm problem for any Dem. Plenty of demos that might not come out strongly to vote for HRC are sure as hell going to come out to vote against Trump. Ditto for Bernie.

      It would be like having a third party spoiler type candidate on one of the two major party tickets. I still can't believe it's coming to this but what the heck is going to stop it? 

  4. You put the emphasis on the wrong word. You emphasized 'CAN'. You should have emphasized 'MEAN'.

  5. notaskinnycook says:

    Now come on, folks. Moddy and A.C. seem to have gone to ground due to the craziness in Oregon. So is there actually anyone here who will cry if His Hairness is the top of the Repub ticket and drags the who team down? And, BTW, I keep hearing this distinction between the "establishment" and the "base". Would someone kindly elucidate?

    • BlueCat says:

      My understanding is "establishment" refers to those in leadership who would actually like to win the WH. The "base" refers to all the R voters in all the gerrymandered red districts and in deep red states who will replace any R from said districts and states who dares to work with any non-wackos to get something done.  Base voters will also refuse to support at primary level any candidate who could possibly win nationwide, such as one known to commit the sin of compromise or suggesting some toning down of hate speech. Establishment types think a shade less vitriol would be helpful. Not much less, mind you. Just a hair.  Does that help at all?

      • notaskinnycook says:

        Got it. So the Base& are the losers who care less about action and more about rhetoric, who then bitch and complain that their agenda never seems to go anywhere. So, now I need help with why the Establishment tolerates these people. Don't they just sandbag the people who can actually win and govern?  

        • BlueCat says:

          In the beginning the establishment could play the base, make them promises, get their votes, then ignore them. Nowadays… not so much. The establishment is Dr. Frankenstein and the base is the out of control monster they created and which is now destroying them. Boohoo.

          • notaskinnycook says:

            I cry for them, too. crying. If Cruz or Rubio or Trump is the top of the ticket next year, they're gonna drag the whole party down with 'em. Blue, lovely blue as far as the eye can see. Whee!

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