Tuesday Open Thread

“If the terriers and bariffs are torn down, this economy will grow.”

–George W. Bush

43 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

      • DavidThi808 says:

        Yes it seems contrived – but the facts do fit – http://www.coloradopols.com/sh

        Either that or this is an incredible coincidence considering the number of firms that match.

        • Middle of the Road says:

          Thanks for the link.  

          • DavidThi808 says:

            …to tear it apart. But I think my logic is good.

            • Danny the Red (hair) says:

              10 years ago I saw how most of the banks had no idea how much exposure they had to LTCM.

              The management of many of the banks was kicked to the curb–including UBS.

              I started to explore what I called 1 number exposure.  Big banks are so diverse and take risk in so many ways, the banks don’t always see how risk aggregates on the balance sheet.  What was needed was a reporting system that disaggregated the risks of individual transactions and then reaggregated them in different ways.

              Many risk management tools have been invented in the last 15 years and they are widely available.  However, banks ability to use the tools is widely different.

              During LTCM J.P. Morgan who invented VAR modeling (measure of Value At Risk– basically a volatility model that works 95% of the time–I won’t get going on fat tails and the 5%) did not do a good job of measuring counterparty risk and had to keep revising how much exposure they had.

              Two years later they had merged with Chase and trying to integrate Chase was a frankenstein monster of 3 big banks that had never been properly integrated and their risk management was a wreck.  They still hadn’t fixed it by Enron. Disaster again.

              In 2004 JPM bought Bank One basically to get Jamie Dimon to run JPM.  Good move. he improved reporting integrated the risk managmement and basically has ben strong enough to pick up the pieces of the meltdown (Bear Sterns and WaMu).  

              Reporting matters in complex organizations

    • Sir Robin says:

      that Senator Obama was on the phone with the president this morning.

    • ClubTwitty says:

      it also had a few rebounds.  I think your optimism is unfounded.  

      There are still dark days ahead I’m afraid.

    • Pam Bennett says:

      After a general selloff there are lots of cheap stocks to tuck into a portfolio.

      More interesting is how the oil futures tanked in the selloff. Although there is some upward movement today, I think the importance was the traders couldn’t stop the selling. Saudi had stated a few weeks ago they wanted a $100 floor and the trading broke that hard.  Watching CNBC Sqawk Box Europe this morning was interesting. One of the technical analysts was talking about oil going to $40 or even $30. But, he was also talking about a continuing failure of the U.S. to stablize the credit markets resulting in a deep recession world wide.  But, he was confident of $50 to $70 oil sometime soon.

  1. HamiltonRoberts says:

    Some of you might not believe it, but it looks like free market capitalism won yesterday.

    http://conservativeforchange.b

    • Barron X says:

      .

      check out the website of your county clerk.

      Then look at who’s running for President.  

      Yes, the two corporatist parties are at the top.  

      But who’s listed third ?  

      I’m guessing it’s the candidate of the country’s 3rd largest party.  

      .

      Bob Barr sought the endorsement of Ron Paul,

      but that endorsement went to Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party.  

      http://www.baldwin08.com/

      Chuck was also out front on the bailout.

      What does Ron Paul know that Bob Barr doesn’t ?  

      .  

  2. sxp151 says:

    From Politico:

    The Republican National Committee’s new advertisement critical of the the Wall Street “bailout” was produced and sent to television stations in key states before the package failed, officials at two stations said.

    “Wall Street Squanders our money. And Washington is forced to bail them out with — you guessed it — our money. Can it get any worse?” asks the ad’s narrator, as the words “BAILOUT WITH OUR MONEY” cross the screen. (The answer: Obama’s plans would make it worse.)



    Asked about the ad’s relationship to the congressional legislation, the consultant heading up the RNC’s expenditure, Brad Todd, responded in an email that Obama is its focus.



    UPDATE: Asked if he has any regrets about an ad that seems to cut against McCain’s message, Todd reiterated his criticism of the fact that Obama hasn’t altered spending plans in light of the crisis, and added: “In all seriousness….what planet are you on?”

  3. Whiskey Lima Juliet says:

    Washington, DC – The Democratic National Committee today updated the Count the Lies counter after CNN called McCain’s claims about spending “misleading” and noted that the candidates would actually have very similar impacts on the federal budget. In Ohio yesterday, Senator McCain falsely claimed that Barack Obama is proposing $860 billion in new spending.  

    This clip is at least the 79th fact check to debunk McCain campaign lies since he promised to run a respectful campaign in February.

    http://www.democrats.org/CountTheLies to see the updated Count the Lies counter.

    CNN: McCain Spending

    Claim “Misleading.”  “Good morning. This hour we are taking on the issue of spending. Like taxes when you start talking about billions and trillions of dollars, its easy to get confused. So let’s take a listen to the charge from John McCain yesterday in Columbus, Ohio.  ‘It shouldn’t be surprising that Senator Obama isn’t interested in protecting your tax dollars. Senator Obama has proposed more than $860 billion in new spending.’  Nearly $1 trillion in new spending? That’s a lot of money. Is it true? Well, you really have to break down the statement. Let’s take a look at a key word in McCain’s statement. He said Obama proposed more than $860 billion in new spending. The key word being ‘new.’  Not ‘spending with cuts in other areas,’ but new spending.  The McCain campaign simply added up the costs of programs Obama has talked about. But the Obama campaign told us some of the programs will be paid for in cuts in other areas. They called the McCain figure ‘totally ludicrous.’ Now, we also checked with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, and that nonpartisan group, agreed, saying McCain’s statement was misleading and taken out of context. And listen to this. The group actually found that in the end the candidates would have about the same impact on the federal budget. The projection by the year 2013, Obama would be adding $286 billion to the deficit. McCain, $211 billion.

    So back to the original charge and the question: Is McCain right in saying that Obama would propose $860 billion in new   spending? Well, the truth squad says — no.  The statement is misleading.”

    CNN American Morning, 9/30/08:  

  4. Something Is Brewing says:

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/

    Will Tony Rezko and his apparent cooperation with Federal authorities have any effect on the Presidential race?

      • Something Is Brewing says:

        So your view is that Rezko will have no impact on the Presidential race?  

        • ClubTwitty says:

          Rezko has been talking.  

          Hasn’t really helped your guy too much yet, has it?

          I understand that you want your team to win, and that when you have a ticket like McCain/Palin that you’re suppose to get behind it must be really hard.  

          To have to pretend that Palin is ready to be president and that McCain has shown great leadership on the economic crisis this past week.  What else do you have but to spread rumors and raise the false hope that Obama will tank.  God knows you can’t depend on McCain not to play Drama Queen and keep stepping in it day after day.  So you cling to your false hopes and smears.  Good luck with that.

        • themonk77 says:

          It seems you have a one track mind, so I’ll just past the answer here.

          http://www.coloradopols.com/sh

          Not sure what Rezko has anything to do with except being a corrupt guy that is being indicted.  Your assertion that this has anything to do with the presidential race has been railed against about as much as WMDs in Iraq.  Look, you don’t like Obama, fine.  Disagree with him.  Don’t invent crap to try to dissuade others.

  5. Hugh Jorgen 2008 says:

    If the Governor of Illinois is indicted before election day the press will start writing about the past connections between Obama and Rezko.

    Giving the benefit of every doubt to Senator Obama he showed poor and questionable judgment in both his personal and professional dealings with Tony Rezko.

    The story today seems to indicate that Rezko has already cooperated and is now giving testimony before a Grand Jury.  This is not good news for the Obama campaign.  

  6. Danny the Red (hair) says:

    Palin credits “good union jobs” for her health insurance

    Sarah Palin and John McCain routinely offer a nod on the stump to Todd Palin’s membership in the United Steel Workers as a way of underscoring the potential second family’s blue-collar bona fides.

    In an interview today, Sarah Palin went further, specifically crediting her and her husband’s union membership for their health care.

    “We’ve gone through periods of our life here with paying out of pocket for health coverage until Todd and I both landed a couple of good union jobs,” Palin explained to conservative talk show host Hugh Hewitt.  “Early on in our marriage, we didn’t have health insurance, and we had to either make the choice of paying out of pocket for catastrophic coverage or just crossing our fingers, hoping that nobody would get hurt, nobody would get sick.”

    In saying this, Palin was seeking to underline how her life has been no different than many Americans.  (Earlier in the interview, she said: “It’s time that normal Joe six-pack American is finally represented in the position of vice presidency.”)

    But Democrats and union officials are sure to jump on Palin’s language, which is taken directly out of their talking points.  

    The centerpiece of McCain’s health care plan — and GOP orthodoxy on the issue — is to empower people to pick their own health plans by lessening tax breaks for employer-based coverage and transferring them to invididual taxpayers.

    Just today, the AFL-CIO dropped a mail piece focused on health care to a million of their members, hammering McCain for wanting “people to buy health insurance on their own instead of getting it through their jobs.”

    This is somewhat misleading because McCain would offer a tax credit to help people get coverage.

    But nonetheless, McCain and most Republicans are pushing for a market-oriented health care system where individuals would be weaned off the very employer-based set-up that Palin praised.  

    It’s unclear what union job Palin had.  I’ve asked the campaign.

    Though I welcome her to the party, she can’t run for VP–we have higher standards.

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