U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Michael Bennet
(D) Phil Weiser
60%↑
50%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Jena Griswold
(D) David Seligman
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) J. Danielson
(R) Sheri Davis
50%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(D) Jeff Bridges
(R) Kevin Grantham
40%
40%
30%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Trisha Calvarese
(D) Eileen Laubacher
90%
20%
20%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Manny Rutinel
(D) Shannon Bird
45%↓
40%
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
September 24, 2008 06:55 AM UTC
21 Comments
Things are looking bleak for Sen. McCain on that map.
Pennsylvania is looking a bit tighter than I think the Obama camp would like, but despite some pretty regressive regions, I can’t see McCain pulling out a win there. Over the past several elections, Pennsylvania has proven to be another New Jersey for the GOP – always polling close but never delivering.
McCain’s best poll to-date in Minnesota has been a tie; I don’t see the state flipping toward him in the next several weeks barring a major change in the election scene.
And Colorado, where the race is raging, has been relatively consistent up a couple of points for Obama as well; while McCain has had somewhat regular poll wins here, they’ve only been by a point or two, while Obama’s more frequent good poll numbers have ranged higher. Obama’s ground game here may be a deciding factor in the race.
The other three states to watch are New Hampshire, Virginia, and Nevada, to put Obama well and truly over the top. If the McCain campaign can’t hold Virginia, it’s almost certainly toast – and there is a definite though slight trend hinting that Virginia might go for Obama.
There’s a new post up about Obama’s and McCain’s ground game in Colorado, with a specific emphasis on Boulder.
[blush]
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…
I don’t know if we’re at that point yet.
I agree with PhoenixRising that Pennsylvania will totally go Democratic, and by a significant margin.
Minnesota and Colorado are much less certain to me.
It’s nice to be ahead in the polls, but it’s clearly a news-driven bump. Whether it lasts depends very much on what Congress does with this bailout plan.
Well said.
I worry less about theft a al 2000 & 2004 but the infamous Bradley Effect.
The soft bigotry of lying to pollster and then pulling a different lever in the booth is alive and well.
For many Blacks and excited young people this will be the first time they vote. The idea of wearing head to toe Obama gear is very possible. However, I never thought of it as a strategy.
In a tight race, the party which tends to benefit when fewer people vote (Republican) will try to depress turnout any way they can. We’ve already seen them bragging about challenging as many votes as they can, and this seems like as good an excuse as any.
But the all-caps in the email is just stupid.
And the level of urgency.
It’s good to note that partisan clothing can be considered campaigning; it’s up to the election judges.
It’s good to note, but holy moly, chill down a bit.
I hope that the Obama campaign makes a point of this when they are doing GOTV.
Of course, the best way to avoid this mess is to register to vote by mail.
Personally, I like to vote early.
But it’s true, don’t wear any campaign paraphernalia.
where they’re feeling the effects of the economy as badly as any state, has shown anywhere from a slim to a significant lead for McCain?
Florida will start to tip back to McCain soon enough, VA and NC likely will do the same.
It’s going to get real interesting around dinner time here in Colorado on election night.
And that’s why Obama had better be 5 to 10 points ahead in key states: the Tom Bradley – Doug Wilder Effect.
America, God love her, still has a bunch of racist cracker f*ckers. Who are ashamed to tell pollsters how they really feel.
but, more accurately, it’s because Ohio is more of a republican state than Dems realize.
It wasn’t until the disaster that was Bob Taft that state politics started shifting Dem, and even after that the state legislature is still solidly repub.
Obviously there are plenty of racists (as there are everywhere), but the political landscape of the state matters a lot
I can tell you that everything south of Columbus in Ohio thinks and votes like Kentucky; and everything east of Columbus thinks and votes like Indiana…
they’re losing their jobs because of failed Republican policies they will still vote in someone who promises to continue those policies?
What makes them so different form say, Colorado, where we tend to vote for whoever we think will govern best?
have also suffered (and who has it worse that West Virginia–yet they consistently vote Republican also). “Morality” issues (and to an extent there more than here–race) trump economic issues. We’re talking Bible Belt here.
Have you read “What’s the Matter With Kansas”?
Tom Tancredo, Doug Lamborn, Marilyn Musgrave? We have plenty of people in this state who will just vote for ANY Republican, no matter how bad.
This was a Republican stronghold for decades, now we have a Dem Governor and both legislative bodies are majority Dem.
(sorry, listening to that song in the car tonight)
A new Washington Post/ABC News Poll shows Obama breaking 50% tonight with a substantial lead over McCain.
ABC/WaPo, 9/22 (9/7) Likely Voters, Moe +/- 3
Obama 52 (47)
McCain 43 (49)
More fun details from that poll include Independents in key swing states breaking for Obama 53-39, with enthusiasm bleeding from the McCain campaign by double digits, while Palin continues to pull McCain down as her favorability ratings also dropped twenty two points in two weeks.
But again, it’s just a poll. The only one that matters is on election day.
Heard that somewhere once.
The economy is McCain’s Achilles heel. By both being Republican/Bushite and in Congress for 26 years and doing nothing but help grease Wall Street’s failure he is vulnerable to economic charges.
My free advice to Obama is to constantly refocus back to the economy when taken off of that topic.
and NC and WV light red