President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
52%↑
48%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
60%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
August 27, 2008 11:42 PM UTC
28 Comments
According to the polling, in Mountain States races, Democrats in key competitive contests are polling better with Obama at the top of the ticket.
Obama has only lost 12 points if you take his best outlier poll and compare it against the worst outlier poll. The race has narrowed (though not by 12 points), but that was bound to happen after his initial post-primary bump – it’s normal.
Democrats will be hitting McCain hard in the next couple of months: he’s rabidly anti-woman, more of a warmonger than George W. Bush, and will continue to squander the future of our children through even greater debt. He’s out of touch with average Americans, and he’s in touch with too many corporate lobbyists and shady schemes.
Obama is what? Inexperienced? A celebrity? Will Republicans stoop to “He’s Black”?
Thanks to Ed Morrissey for the daily dose of concern-trolling.
Hopefully he kicks it into gear now. David Kurtz has a very real concern over why the Obama campaign is not campaigning harder.
The number of TV ads I’ve seen the last few weeks don’t seem to support that assertion.
Was the trip to Berlin “cruise control”?
Is the DNC “cruise control”?
When does this mythical “cruise control” end?
The DNC is only starting to show up in polls, and Monday is typically the least-watched day of the convention. Obama did, in fact, take a brief vacation earlier in the month. That’s “cruise control”, and it ended Monday. (Technically, it ended Saturday, but I think the VP pick and the rallies over the weekend were poorly covered…)
As to polling results…
The Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls are three-day averages; the bounce from Michelle’s speech is impossible to gauge from such a sample, as Saturday’s poll drops off and Tuesday’s poll comes in. If things were static over the previous polling period, Gallup’s numbers suggest a 9-point bounce from Monday’s event alone (Obama is +3 from the previous tracking poll). I don’t believe that’s the right number – it would be on the very high side of history if true.
Gallup says it’s “benchmark” DNC bounce numbers will come from their weekend poll, Friday-Sunday this week – which McCain will seek to blunt through his VP pick on Friday morning.
What about all the continued twitter of the “Obama Veepstakes” for the last three weeks, and the texting to the masses of his choice at 3AM?
You’re telling me all that was just “cruise control”? I’ve heard nothing but Obama news for the past 6 weeks. And he’s on TV every time I watch.
How is that cruise control? And what is it going to look like after “cruise control” is over? Is he going to come to my house and cook me dinner?
And when Obama comes out of this magical “cruise control” are the Republicans just going to forfeit their campaigning? Maybe they’ll cancel the RNC and save us all the trouble.
I haven’t seen the Republicans do it yet. However, I have seen the Dems(and Uhhh…bama) bring that up over, and over, and over…
Tomorrow marks the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King, Jr.’s “I have a dream” speech, and I can think of no more fitting celebration than the nomination of our first African-American major party Presidential candidate.
As a cause for celebration, what’s wrong with bringing that up?
As a reason to criticize, what’s right about bringing that up?
(BTW, the question is – what do Republicans hit Obama on? Everything they’ve pitched so far has been low and away outside the strike zone.)
but they just do it in code, rsquare. It comes from the ” I get a sense that people don’t really know who Barack Obama is”, Bill Bennett types. They cast out as much FUD as possible because you don’t really know him because he’s not exactly like you, right ?
Oh, code, I see. I must not have gotten the the new terms in the latest issue of the vast right wing conspiracy newsletter. Is this the same code that Obama uses, like saying “the Republicans are going to start trying to scare you by saying that I don’t look like the other guys on the dollar bills?”(paraphrased) Or That “I don’t look like the other presidents who have spoken here(in Berlin).(paraphrased)
etc…That code, or is this a different code?
Can you fault Obama for describing exactly what is going on ? Maybe he should just shut up and take it in the balls – I see.
Ok, you’ve convinced me, I’m going to vote for Obama because he is black. That’s the only reason many people are voting for him. That’s as racist as NOT voting for him because he is black. As Dennis Miller said ” I don’t have any problem with the color of his skin, just the thinness of it.”(paraphrase)
I would never, ever vote for Obama, and the color of his skin has nothing to do with that decision.
Conservative posts. God, this blog is so liberal it sickens me.
Oh wait, nevermind.
No sense giving yourself agita.
Oh wait. You write for it.
Nevermind 🙂
Great job blogging from the DNC! I really appreciate what you’re doing.
I appreciate your appreciation. 🙂
In 1972 McGovern was the nominee. In some states that I was in I was surprised, unpleasantly, to see that they wrote off St. George very early. In MO there were billboards with the name of the gubernatorial candidate (Dowd) much, much larger than McGovern’s.
But, BO is so good at raising $ that he won’t need to rely on state parties to provide that kind of support (signs). It is a different world. Our economy is really suffering. It’s about cynicism vs. hope.
History is on Barack Obama’s side.
Those are national numbers. They would be more important if they were state by state, of course.
Its still AUGUST, too.
Moreover, we know that we will have some sliding, for all sorts of reasons.
The important thing is that we are leading while there are all sorts of undecideds out there. If some have been lost, more will be found.
Campaign, campaign, campaign.
We will look up in November and see how it went. That will come soon enough.
The debates will matter more than anything going on now, including the conventions.
Q-Poll just released its latest “Swing State” polls, and they were actually better for Obama than Nate’s model predictions, despite showing a drop-off. So apparently this narrowing trend is already modeled and figured in to his predictions, which still give Obama the edge come November.
Kinda reassuring.
No reason, I just want to see you guys panic.
🙂
We’ll see if we can stage something for you. Don’t expect too much realism, though.
🙂
Blue Dogs just want some leverage. They are not going to vote for someone who is 95% Bush.
They can sell an Obama middle class tax cut in their districts and they will.
Unless your picking outliers to make your arugment, which is fine but you should at least admit to that, polling shows this race has had its ups and downs. McCain had no where else to go but up, and Obama walked out of the primary with a lot of support. Of course the race is going to tighten up and no denies that.
That said, McCain is being defined on the issues while Obama is being attacked by the Rovian hit squad. McCain has lost everything. He lost his credibility, his principle’s and dignity. The man is now only a shell of the man he once was. And the voters are going to figure that out before November.
in so many different ways from the Ds on this page. Pretty soon we’ll see if you all are right as folks start voting in 40 days.
If Obama was my guy, I’d be a little freaked, but wouldn’t say it publicly either. Remember Dukakis had as much as a 17 point lead around this time, so being even with McCain can’t exactly calming with an opponent as lackluster and lame as McCain and a candidate as exciting as Barrack.
Personally, if I were Obama I’d want a good five or seven point lead going into election night to make up for the certain percentage (is it 1% or 10%?) of redneck dumbfuck racists in this country who aren’t exactly going to tell a pollster they won’t vote for a black man, just to be safe.
he’s limited to public funds, being one of those independent minded Republicans who likes to live on the taxpayer dole.;-)
Obama, as a Democrat and entrepreur, prefers to do private fundraising. He can thus outspend McCain 2-1 or even 3-1, through election day, the man is a money machine!
AT some point, the money advantage will begin to tell. Maybe it won’t buy an election but put it together with everything else and it can sure help…ask Jared Polis.
Wow, I never thought I’d write such a thing. Maybe Obama really is bringing the country together . . . It does speak to McCain’s innate ability to have pissed off everyone in the beltway at some point in the last several decades such that they don’t want to support him, for good or bad.
which is where he raises his money. Dean pioneered that four years ago but the today’;s environment is far better. McCain is clueless about technological change and it is costing him big time.
Besides for laughing at all of the hypotheticals created to make a predication… Ras seems to be the only pollster coming to an apocalyptic conclusion.
The real story line here is that the pollster and media looking for a story, and McCain’s shills are happy to use anything with a “what if” scenario in it that distracts from reality.
All we’ve seen from McCain’s camp is fear and smear about his opponent which leaves McCain wide open for us to define him. He’s already over played the POW card and when talked about experience people are only remember about his age.
McCain better be ready since after tonight there will be no more free rides. His lack of substance and knowledge on almost every issue will be highlighted.
According to stuff I’ve been reading trying to understand these numbers, Rasmussen’s tracking is a 4 or 5 day average – a much longer trend average than Gallup’s.
This makes sense if you’re trying to even out the bumps in a somewhat unreliable polling strategy (tracking polls), but it also means that Rasmussen’s “convention bounce” won’t even start showing up until today.