Presidential race prospects

I like this discussion because the map is so cool. From DailyKOS yellow is all states where the margin is within 5 points by pollster.com

From the article:

This map gives us Obama 264, McCain 154. That leaves 120 EVs up for grabs, of which McCain must win 97 percent to win the election. Al Obama has to do is pick up six more EVs from those yellow states. Nevada has five, Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota each have three, the rest of those yellow states would single-handedly push Obama over the top

Yes a week is a lifetime in politics, but this sure looks positive (or negative depending on your preference).

And yes, it could all come down to Colorado…

Come November the result will be

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34 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. DavidThi808 says:

    from ABC News we have:

    TAPPER: Would you have compunctions about voting for someone who had cheated on his wife?

    WARREN: Absolutely I would. Absolutely I would. Because if you can’t keep your faith to your most sacred vow – “’til death do us part” — how in the world can I trust you to lead my family? My government? My nation?…Absolutely I would. I think people first need to ask forgiveness and then earn trust back over time Can trust be re-earned? Absolutely but it takes time.

    The thing is, McCain had numerous affairs on his first wife. He may have cheated on Cindy McCain too.

    Rick Warren stating he is voting for Obama for moral reasons would have a tremendous influence on the evangelical community. Rick Warren actually has the influence James Dobson thinks he has.

    • One Queer Dude says:

         And Warren’s followers are the younger Evangelicals as opposesd to the dinosaurs who still follow Dobson but are dying out.

      • BlueCat says:

        These people are always happy to forgive righties who have behaved badly and then claim to have repented and gotten right with God and prefer them to Dems who never behaved badly in the first place.  

    • DrewKerin says:

      I can’t see Rick Warren coming out in support of the Democratic candidate.  As much as the evangelical voters complain about McCain, the abortion issue will bring them out to the polls to vote for the GOP nominee.

      • Go Blue says:

        depending on which view on abortion McCain decides to campaign on. McCain alarms base with abortion comment. Either way, he’s going to lose a key group or two if and when he figures out his positions.  

        • DrewKerin says:

          Regardless of whether he selects Tom Ridge, or Joe Liberman, as a running mate, it would not change what McCain’s stance on the issue was.

          That would be like saying if Barack Obama chose Bill Ritter, Bob Casey, or Chuck Hagel, it would show the Democratic standard bearer to be undecided about abortion.

          Neither of these presidential candidates is making their selection based on a single issue.

          Evangelicals are not sitting this one out.  There is too much at stake, as far as they’re concerned.  

      • SouthDem says:

        Then you don’t know Rick Warren.  On an interview this morning, he made it VERY clear that abortion was only one of many issues he’s interested in.  He indicated he takes a “whole life” attitude — not only to unborn children, but making sure that we are taking care of children after birth, including a strong educational and health care system, and preservation of the environment.

        Rick Warren doesn’t belong to the two-issue Christian leadership personified by Dobson.

  2. DavidThi808 says:

    from the Texas Monthly

    This is from an interview with John Weaver who was political director for McCain’s 2000 bid for the White House.

    Weaver is starkly pessimistic about the Republicans’ prospects this year. “We’re sailing into a hurricane in a wooden boat,” he told me. “We’re the party in power, so we’ll get blamed for the home loans crisis and government bailouts. There’s the ‘third [Bush] term’ issue, a recession, the wrong-track number-it’s ninety in Michigan, there may be a higher number somewhere, like Chechnya-gas prices, Nixon-like job approval, and an unpopular war. This isn’t like 1988, when we could win by talking about flag lapel pins and Willie Horton. Today, if you talk about these things, it’s talking about small ball. It will just piss people off.”

    • Go Blue says:

      looks like it was taken on McCain’s private jet! What a common guy he is!

      Weaver also candidly points out McCain’s jealously as projected through his own campaign.

      To me, the ad was nearly incoherent. And John Weaver, McCain’s former top aide who left the campaign, described the ad as “childish.” And, when you think about it, isn’t McCain a celebrity, too?

      “John’s been a celebrity ever since he was shot down,” Weaver said.

  3. Go Blue says:

    Anything can happen between now and November. Everyone touts polls and predictions but the only numbers that count are those on election day.

    And I don’t like yellow. Colorado is a green state.  

  4. One Queer Dude says:

       I find it hard to believe that the folks who gave us Jesse Helms and rejected Harvey Gantt have changed that much in a decade or two

  5. sjintheknow says:

    The DailyKOS is not biased at all…NOT.

    This map is a joke because people are not telling the truth about who they will vote for.

    It is about Trust and the American People DO NOT TRUST Obama.  Why are people not telling the pollsters the truth…well they do not want to be labeled Racists.

    McCain will just barely win but he will win.

    • CO Democrat says:

      I was expecting you to try say something like that.  And where is your proof of this?  There is a poll up there that serves as an indicator.  Where is the indicator that shows that you’re right?  Furthermore, why would you think that Race has anything to do with how these people respond in polls versus how they will vote?  Is it because you’re a racist?  

    • The site might be, but the map is based on a weighted composite average of the polls – more weight on recent and more reliable polls.

      I know, you think everyone just wants to say they like Obama.  But the primary polls don’t agree with your poll analysis; Obama outperformed the polls in almost every state.

    • Go Blue says:

      People are lying about trusting someone you claim they think is also liar?  Wow. Who’s going to call them racists? The paid caller without any visual knowledge of the person being  1,000 miles away from them? Right.

      And the people certainly not modest about their opinions of this liar.

  6. symonds says:

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  7. davebarnes says:

    surf to FiveThirtyEight.com

    Nate Silver is doing an awewsome job.

  8. redstateblues says:

    For the same reasons he won in the nominating contests: the Davids (Axelrod and Plouffe) know how to work the system. They know how to do the math, and they know what it will take to be competitive in the states they need to win.

  9. sjintheknow says:

    It will be interesting to see what you all say then.

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