Armstrong Campaign Claims Dead Heat

According to a press release from the Wil Armstrong campaign, the CD-6 Republican candidate has pulled even with Mike Coffman in the fight to replace Tom Tancredo. According to their numbers, Armstrong polls at 32.5% compared to 33.8% for Coffman.

Given that Coffman was up by 30 points not too long ago, we have a hard time believing this poll. Click below for the full press release.

Today the Armstrong for Congress campaign released its latest poll tracking results:

           Date:   July 22 – 26

                       Ted Harvey                 186                  11.0

                       Steve Ward                 141                  8.4

                       Wil Armstrong            548                  32.5

                       Mike Coffman            570                  33.8

                       Undecided                  239                  14.2    

                                                      n = 1684           MoE = 2.38%

           Bruce Donisthorpe of BWD Global managed the survey.  Donisthorpe noted that “these numbers are consistent with the trending we’ve seen over the last 2 weeks.  Since Armstrong’s ads began to air, the undecided voters have been breaking heavily for Wil.  It was just a case of raising his name ID and getting in front of voters.

           “Armstrong’s message that ‘congress needs more career businessmen, not more career politicians’ is resonating.  He has been very effective in framing the choice for voters.”

           Armstrong’s campaign manager, Jack Stansbery, added:  “Wil has been made up a lot of ground over the last 6 months.  Momentum is on our side.  It started with our grassroots support and the record-breaking petition drive.

“Then Wil received the endorsement of leaders such as former Governor Bill Owens, Senator Wayne Allard, Attorney General John Suthers and recently we were proud to announce Mitt Romney’s support.  They all recognize that Wil’s unique, real-world experience as a successful businessman is what congress so desperately needs.

“Finally, we knew that once we got our ads on air that Wil and his message would be effective.  The fact we’ve moved the numbers significantly over the last month is a testament to that.

“It’s now a dead-heat where the winner might be declared with a 2 or 3 digit margin.  We are going to turn up our grassroots activity as Wil continues to take his message directly to the voters at their door and on the air”

25 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Republican 36 says:

    Sure would like to see the questions and the methodology for this poll.

  2. Knowledge is Power says:

    Has anyone seen them before?

  3. Billy goat says:

    It was definitely a push poll. Before their final question of who would you vote for, there was a question towards the beginning that was used to sway results.  

  4. Republican 36 says:

    is a government affairs consultant in New Mexico with Manzano Strategies, Inc. He appears to have a great deal of experience with Republican office holders from New Mexico in staff poisitons but I can’t find that he has any background in polling or public opinion surveying.  Based on that, I’m betting that the Tarrance & Associates poll that Mike Coffman released about one month ago that showed he was almost 30 points ahead is the real deal and the one Armstrong released this morning isn’t.  It sounds like Armstrong is desperate to show momentum that he hasn’t got.  

    • Colorado Pols says:

      You have to assume that the truth lies somewhere in the middle – which means Coffman is ahead by at least 10 points.

      • Republican 36 says:

        we would have already seen the mortgage banker commercials on TV from the Coffman campaign. Nothing has happened in the past thirty days to upset Coffman’s campaign. Just really hard for me to believe this poll.  I’d love to see the poll questions.

      • DBrown says:

        The Armstrong team knows they are down and are looking more and more like a desperate campaign. First, his campaign manager made some disparaging remarks about Coffman’s service and our veterans. Then he goes on an attack campaign that seeks to divide our party. Rumor has it Wil has put in over $500,000 of his own money to try and buy this election. Now a laughable poll. It appears Wil will stop at nothing in his pursuit of power.

  5. true colorado conservative says:

    but found that the business background Armstrong advertises comes form sub-prime mortgage lending. It appears his father started each of the companies. This is concerning to me since it was just reported that we were the #5 state in foreclosures. Anyone know if Armstrong negatively or positively impacted this #?.  

  6. Mint Julep says:

    This kind of poll is done to make sure that there is enough cash coming in to pay all of the high paid campaign staff and consultants that Armstrong has squandered his money on.

    I think Wil and Will are both headed for the Bronze Medal platform.

  7. oklahoma09 says:

    When coffman’s internal poll came out, it was the best thing since slice bread, now that armstrong has come out with it’s internal poll, it appears there is a double standard. Something is wrong it can’t be true, well it is true and Big mo is on the side of the armstrong campaign and panic and set in the coffman camp. With the strong support of 350 volunteers at the grassroots level and the big time endorsements, the pendulum has swung to armstrong  side big time, leaving the coffman campign screaming chicken little.

  8. oklahoma09 says:

    let’s put it this way, the once insurmoutable lead that coffman had a month ago is gone. Big Mo has switch sides to the armstrong camp. it’s not good to be a grasshopper in this campaign year.

  9. Kiki Trumpet says:

    But he won’t release his numbers.  Why not?  

    And who says Mike was up by that much over the summer?  Oh yeah, it was Mike.

    Yeah, it’s real hard to believe that a fair buy on TV will move your numbers.

    Who are you people?

    • RedGreen says:

      that had him up by 30 was ages ago, and the Armstrong “comparative” ad has been running like crazy. If the poll didn’t have the slanted question Billy Goat mentioned above, I’d trust it more, but certainly many voters are going to be considering just that question when casting their votes.

      • Kiki Trumpet says:

        just blindly take ‘Billy Goat’s’ word for it?  The biggest indpendent indicator that this race is close is still the fact that Coffman won’t release his very recent numbers.

        If Armstrong were up by 10 (as Coffman campaign says in the press) I’m sure they would release it.  Meanwhile, Coffman is still citing his own May poll.

        • RedGreen says:

          is the fact the Armstrong campaign didn’t release its questions either. Note, I said I’d trust it more, not that I’d trust it or not. I think the race is probably within a few points, but the next two weeks are all about turnout, not raw preference.  

  10. oklahoma09 says:

    this blog is in denial, now that coffman lead has vanished, the coffman people want to make excuses for the lead evaporating with less than a month to go. Just last month this blog was giving coffman a coronation to the 6th congressional district, now that the race is in a dead heat, the coffman campaign is now looking for answers on how big mo slid over to the armstrong side in a big way. It’s not good to be a grasshopper in this campaign year.

  11. Christine Burtt says:

    Regardless our anticipation of the carping of talking heads, we release our poll.

    The Armstrong campaign has released a poll showing they’re “in a dead heat” with Coffman.  Neither Armstrong’s nor Coffman’s numbers bear any resemblance to what we’re hearing on the ground.

    This was posted at coloradopols.com:

    I received the call. It was definitely a push poll. Before their final question of who would you vote for, there was a question towards the beginning that was used to sway results.  

    Don’t remember the exact wording but essentially the question was if you knew Mike Coffman was giving up a high profile Republican position to pursue his own political ambitions would you be more or less likely to vote for him?

    by: Billy goat @ Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 13:36:53 PM CDT

    We all know polls can be skewed to reflect a desired outcome, so we don’t give much credence to either campaign’s numbers.  

    “Lies, damned lies and statistics.”  Mark Twain would likely have included polls if they were being used back then.

    The only poll we trust is the one at the door.  The only poll that counts is the one on August 12.

    Our poll is the one we’ve used during all our campaigns – door to door. This is the single best measure of what actual voters are really thinking.  We’re talking to the same folks the other campaigns are polling, and yes, there’s a bias when Steve walks to their door and asks whom they’ll support.  If they’re undecided, he usually leaves with the promise of their vote.

    Steve has walked to more than 10,000 doors. (It’s a bit more, but the record keeping was a little sketchy in March and April – he was still in session in the Senate.)  Of doors knocked, he’s talked with about 24%.  So, that gives us a margin of error of about plus or minus 1.74, meaning 95% of the time, the numbers will fall about 2 points in either direction.

    Here’s our numbers:

    Coffman – stable in the low 20’s.  He hasn’t moved up or down.  He has the Hillary problem: people like him or they don’t.  Coffman has very high negatives at the door.

    Armstrong – low teens.  People associate him with his father.

    Harvey – around 10%.  He’s known in Douglas County, but that’s about all.

    Ward – upper 20’s.  People are impressed that he’s working so hard and spending so little.  They think that’s a good trait to have in a congressman.

    Undecided/won’t say: a lot.

    Steve has walked everywhere in the 6th Congressional, from Simla in Elbert County to Evergreen in Jeffco and all places in between.  We were the only campaign to show up at candidate forums in Park and Elbert counties this month. It was time well spent to talk one-on-one with more than 100 voters.

    An important note:  Coffman released a poll in May before the CD6 Assembly, saying that Ward would get 4% of the delegate vote.  Steve earned 43%, while Harvey, the Armstrong and Coffman delegates, and Pepito Castellanes, a protГ©gГ© of Coffman supporter Gen. Jim Hall, split 57% of the vote.

    Tracking polls can be a useful tool to detect if a message is resonating. Push polls are a good way to get a message out about an opponent. Voter ID polls can tell who’s with you. Door-to-door work combines the best of all these tactics.  

    We are enormously grateful to the more than 90 volunteers who are walking the neighborhoods with Steve every day.  They can attest to our numbers.

    Christine Burtt

    Cmpgn Mgr

    SteveWardforCongress.com

    303.722.9958

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