President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
July 14, 2008 03:34 PM UTC
22 Comments
http://www.time.com/time/magaz…
In a statistical tie with McCain.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/145737
Granted, there was no doubt a bounce after he caged Hillary, and there will be more ups and downs after the conventions, but so much so soon?
My take is that if he had kept his more liberal, progressive stances, he would still be leading. You know the old phrase about standing for nothing. The Dems elected to Congress in 2006 had pretty strong, unwavering stances, even if relatively conservative.
The indies see this flip-flopping and know that it’s a pandering to them. The cons are going to vote for McBush anyway.
Gee, thanks, Obama!
The demographics for the poll have changed significantly from their last poll, and all of the changes have favored McCain’s strongest groups. It’s impossible to compare their two most recent polls to each other directly.
Yet, at a gut level Obama’s drop will still show up in other polls.
But it’s a long way to November!
I think Obama’s damaged his credibility somewhat by caving on FISA. It was the wrong decision, and unnecessary.
His poll numbers (and his fundraising) may be hurt because of it, but in the end, most of the drop probably comes from the Democratic faithful, who will 99.9% come to their senses and realize they can’t choose a better candidate than Obama this Fall.
Obama finds that caving on FISA cost him more than it helped. So he learns that there are costs in moving to the center. But he still wins the election.
I’m hoping the same happens to Udall – that he still wins but in hindsight finds that his cave on FISA hurt him more than it helped him.
He has moved up and down but so far has stayed ahead of McCain, even if only by less then the margin of error. It’s certainly not conclusive at this stage but better than the if the shoe was on the other foot.
The race to the center tends to make the candidates indistinguishable. Thats the same reason I think it’s dumb for Udall to be doing the same thing.
http://electoralmap.net/index.php
“If the state-by-state elections were truly independent events, the Intrade probabilities would translate to an overall 17% chance of John McCain winning the election. A separate bet you can make at Intrade, shown here, currently has McCain’s overall chances closer to 32%.”
…part of the drop in his popularity was his decision to embrace his vanquished primary opponent and be seen campaigning and fundraising with her.
What the hell is he supposed to do? Keep running against her even after she’s conceded the nomination?
A profile in today’s NYT on Steve Farber and his efforts to raise $$ for the Democratic Convention. Worth a look…
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07…
Now Obama owes favors to a lobbyist who raises money for a convention that really isn’t needed IMHO.
Why does the convention, which is basically unnecessary, cost so much ? Couldn’t at least some of that money be used for the general election ? Politics.
Only if you ignore the media circus around the convention that signifies the launch of our candidate into the General Election. It is, in fact, the first major event of the General Election.
Tell you what – we can ditch the Convention as soon as the Republicans decide to ditch theirs. Let me know when you think that will happen.
“Only if you ignore the media circus around the convention that signifies the launch of our candidate into the General Election. ”
I know. The media haven’t covered Obama or McCain enough already, and we need more. What kind of rock do people have to be living under to not know more than they ever wanted about either candidate ? And if they are living under that rock, will any amount of media ever get their attention ? How much more courting of the ignorant and ill informed does it take ?
Enough already. Lets get it over with.
And to answer your question, the republicans are not going to ditch their convention, but you know it dosen’t really matter anyway. This is the crappiest year in a lifetime to be a Republican, and for good reason.
Bob Ewegen posted that his souces in the Fitz-Gerald and Polis campaigns say that internal polls show Polis ahead. If Ewegen is right Polis might be on his way to Congress. With his money he will be hard to catch.
Can anyone add to that rumor?
Does anyone have information on internal polling on the two Republican Congressional primaries?
I had heard a rumor to the contrary, that Fitz-Gerald was still ahead according to internal polls.
But since Bob’s rumor and my rumor are both unsourced, I put them in the same category: rumor.
Keep them coming!
I wish I’d thought of the punchline. H/T RedState’s Moe Lane. Hehehehe.
Tommy Christopher provoked some commentary at AOL’s Political Machine with his critique of PUMA, although I don’t know how much these disaffected voters affect the polls.
http://news.aol.com/political-…