Betsy Markey a Bright Spot In Latest PPP Poll; Gov, Senate Updates

UPDATE: Here's another poll to add to the mixMonmouth University ties the Senate race at Cory Gardner 47%, Mark Udall 46%. This poll also shows Gov. John Hickenlooper leading Bob Beauprez by seven points, 50-43%.

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Betsy Markey.

Betsy Markey.

The Denver Post's John Frank reports on today's Public Policy Polling numbers, which shows Republican U.S. Senate candidate Cory Gardner leading by the same comfortless 3-point margin we've seen throughout October, and Gov. John Hickenlooper leading Bob Beauprez by the same statistically insignificant single point:

Gardner received 46 percent and Udall took 43 percent in a Public Policy Polling survey of likely voters released Tuesday. The edge is within the 3.5 percent margin of error. The other candidates in the race get a combined 5 percent with another 7 percent undecided.

It is the latest poll in a long line that show the Republican challenger ahead of the Democratic incumbent.

The governor’s race is even closer, the poll found, with Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper holding a one-point edge, 45 percent to 44 percent, against Republican challenger Bob Beauprez. The other candidates on the ballot get 4 percent with 7 percent undecided…

It's the story you know: both races are very close, and the all-star Democratic field campaign has the proven ability, at least in theory, to close the gap in the U.S. Senate race just like 2010. Looking down the ballot, however, there is a pleasant surprise for Democrats. From PPP's memo:

Further down the ticket the closest race is for Treasurer, where incumbent Republican Walker Stapleton leads Democratic challenger Betsy Markey 42/40. [Pols emphasis] Stapleton's lead had been 10 points when we last polled the state in July. Republicans have larger leadsin the other down ballot races- Wayne Williams is up 36/31 on Joe Neguse for Secretary of State and Cynthia Coffman has a 46/32 advantage over Don Quick for Attorney General.

There are several factors we can think of that would explain Treasurer candidate Betsy Markey closing eight points to within striking distance from the last PPP poll–Markey's higher name recognition as a former member of Congress, and effective ads hitting incumbent Walker Stapleton. Cynthia Coffman's large lead over Don Quick in this poll, combined with Markey's strength, may speak to a simple wisdom of running qualified women candidates in these downballot races. In 2010, there was a significant undervote–five percent or more–in the secretary of state, treasurer, and attorney general races. Finding the electable edge here is a perennial challenge, and we'll be interested to see if results this year point to a new strategy.

As for today, Democrats appear to have good reason to get serious about winning the Treasurer's race.

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33 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Andrew Carnegie says:

    Great news for down ballot Dems.

    Markey is losing by less than the other losers.

  2. nota33 says:

    The dem's ground game proved the polls wrong in 2010. These conservatards on here must understand that polls and ground game are 2 totally different things. it's the ground game that wins races, not polls and we have shown time and time again we defeat the conservatards because we have a good ground game. 😉

  3. debbielynnepaint says:

    I looked at this poll closer and 778 likely voters were contacted and the margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5 percent.  Of particular concern to me is that 80% of the interviews were conducted over the phone (landlines) and 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don't have landline telephones.  Not too many people have landlines and they are typically older and whiter.

  4. Craig says:

    More Good News for Mark Udall!!!

    He's figured out how to close the gap with women voters.  Now they're only voting for him by 4% while men are voting for Gardner by 11$!!!  Congratulations Udall campaign.  You finally learned how to lose the abortion issue in Colorado the most pro-choice state in Colorado.

    If you do want some good news, the poll leans slightly to Romney by about 5%, of the undecideds in the race, 13% of independents are undecided, 11% of Hispanics are undecided, 12% of other races undecided, the 30-45 year old age group makes is 19% undecided, and 13% of moderates are undecided.  All of these are the top numbers in their category.  Also poll shows 5% to non-candidate candidates.

    Really encouraged by the legislative numbers?  Well, maybe it's not as bad as it seems, maybe the Dems can still hold the house.  It's only an 8% gap in the generic ballot.  Oh, forgot, last time one party had that at the national level it was 2010 and it was a Republican wave.

  5. ZMulls says:

    I am just fine with the obvious complacency among the Republican rank and file generated by these poll numbers.  The actual pros on the GOP side, though, are almost certainly sweating, given (a) what happened in 2010; and (b) the candid admission by SUSA's pollster that pollsters don't know how to poll Latino/a voters, especially in Colorado.

    When Chuck Plunkett has to get Lynn Bartels to write an "article" on how Mark Udall couldn't name some books and songs, you know the GOP is getting desperate.

  6. ZappateroZappatero says:

    The latest Udall ads I've seen on the boob tube try to paint Mark as a centrist who is as distant from our Democratic President as he is from our socio-psychotic friends on the, ummmmmm, right. This is the cowardly bullshit that comes from DC consultants who could not care less about any given liberal principle. 

    Will being a Bland Centrist work for Mark? Will his fear of being perceived or called liberal be justified? Will his Blue Dog and Third Way credentials convince those elusive moderates (including the ones who say Shrub was "too librul") to come out in droves? 

    I doubt it. If they do and he wins his seat again, will he continue on his noncommittal ways?

    And hey, don't kill the messenger, cuz I'm not the only one who sees failure in the Udall Way:

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren says she isn’t running for president. At this rate, however, she may have to.

    The Massachusetts Democrat has become the brightest ideological and rhetorical light in a party whose prospects are dimmed by — to use a word Jimmy Carter never uttered — malaise. Her weekend swing through Colorado, Minnesota and Iowa to rally the faithful displayed something no other potential contender for the 2016 presidential nomination, including Hillary Clinton, seems able to present: a message.

    “We can go through the list over and over, but at the end of every line is this: Republicans believe this country should work for those who are rich, those who are powerful, those who can hire armies of lobbyists and lawyers,” she said Friday in Englewood, Colo. “I will tell you we can whimper about it, we can whine about it or we can fight back. I’m here with [Sen.] Mark Udall so we can fight back.”

    (1 bonus point for Udall. Too little, too late? – z)

    Warren was making her second visit to the state in two months because Udall’s reelection race against Republican Cory Gardner is what Dan Rather used to call “tight as a tick.” If Democrats are to keep their majority in the Senate, the party’s base must break with form and turn out in large numbers for a midterm election. Voters won’t do this unless somebody gives them a reason.

    Warren may be that somebody. Her grand theme is economic inequality and her critique, both populist and progressive, includes a searing indictment of Wall Street. Liberals eat it up.

    I'm a liberal. Warren is a liberal. What is Udall but trying to get re-elected?

  7. SocialisticatProgressicat says:

    I guess the Boopray didn't look as good on once the ladies got it home sad

    • Gilpin Guy says:

      Who knew the Boopray was really designed to be worn by crotchety old men with stained underwear?  Probably a lot of eligible young women are turned off by a Boopray touching their bodies in harmful places..

  8. Gilpin Guy says:

    It's a close horse race going into the final stretch.  Neck and neck just like the media wanted.  Who would have thought it?  This makes the Hunger Games look staged.  Definitely going to be interesting to see what happens with in all mail-in ballot election.  Will more voters vote?  Stay tuned. 

  9. FrankUnderwood says:

    "Pay no attention to the Monmouth poll.  It's a liberal poll." 

    — Thingy #1

  10. DenverMom says:

    Every single race is close.  Betsy has a shot, and so do Joe Neguse, Don Quick.  Hickenlooper is going to win, and so may Udall and Romanoff.  The GOTV is the key.

  11. denverco says:

    achole says trust the polls ok http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-colorado-senate-gardner-vs-udall   Early in the month con man cory had as much as a 4 – 6 point lead. These last polls show him with a 1-3 point lead. Seems like reverse momentum. I'm sure achole will have a nice spin for this, if he isn't too busy taking care of his nasty rash.

  12. DaninDenDaninDen says:

    So, attendance record story is a smear according to Brandon Rittiman in his latest truth test. How? he called Stapleton to ask, & Walker said it was BS. took care of biz when schedule of SoS placed him in Denver. Rittiman then calls out ad about Markey being a smear as well, in that she only voted  with Pelosi 82% of the time, not 94%. Journalism to vie for

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