New Q-Poll: Beauprez 50%, Hickenlooper 40%

UPDATE #2: The Denver Post quotes other pollsters openly questioning Quinnipiac's numbers:

Jay Leve, editor of SurveyUSA, who oversaw a Denver Post poll released last week that had drastically different findings, questioned the Quinnipiac poll's results.

"We at SurveyUSA have a great deal of respect for Quinnipiac, but we don't see the race this way," he said. "This (poll) stands out as different than a collective of polls from across the country."

Leve cited the USA Today poll that had the same results as the SurveyUSA poll as proof of the Quinnipiac poll's inconsistency.

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UPDATE: Politico's James Hohmann throws cold water on today's Q-poll:

No one in the game really believes that Beauprez is ahead by double digits a month-and-a-half out from the election. [Pols emphasis] A Denver Post/SurveyUSA poll last week had Hickenlooper up 2 points, 45-43, among likely voters. The NBC/Marist Poll in the field Sept. 2-4, showed Hickenlooper up 4 points, 43-39.

A Quinnipiac survey of registered voters from July put Beauprez up 1, 44 percent to 43 percent.

Quinnipiac, which also overestimated Mitt Romney’s standing in Colorado in [2012], didn’t release Senate numbers today. But the Senate ballot is likely to be better for GOP Rep. Cory Gardner than other public surveys when it comes out later in the week.

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Bob Beauprez.

You say you want a revolution, well you know…

Just one day after 9NEWS reported that the Republican Governors Association's media buys in support of GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob Beauprez have run out with no new buys on the horizon, a poll from Quinnipiac University today–outlier or not–challenges conventional wisdom about this race yet again. As FOX 31's Chuck Hikey reports:

In a stunning reversal from previous polling, a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday morning shows Republican gubernatorial challenger Bob Beauprez with a 10-point lead over Gov. John Hickenlooper less than two months from Election Day.

The poll from Connecticut-based Quinnipiac has Beauprez leading Hickenlooper 50 percent to 40 percent among likely voters.

In July, Quinnipiac had the race tied.

While 77 percent of likely voters say their mind is made up, 22 percent said they could change their mind in the next seven weeks.

The Colorado Springs Gazette's Megan Schrader:

The poll also asked voters whether they would say "John Hickenlooper is honest and trustworthy or not." According to the poll, 44 percent said no, while when asked the same question about Beauprez, 28 percent said no.

And while Beauprez has the support of 54 percent of the men polled and Hickenlooper has 34 percent, the two were essentially tied among women – a key demographic in the elections this year.

Hickenlooper is also behind with the support of independent voters, who in Colorado hold serious sway over election results, making up nearly a third of all registered voters.

And from Quinnipiac's memo:

"Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper is behind the challenger on the key qualities voters want in a leader: honesty, caring and leadership," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll. 

"Pundits were predicting that Gov. Hickenlooper faced a close race for reelection. Instead, he's got a mad dash to make up a double-digit deficit. The Democrat does not get the traditional strong support from women to offset Bob Beauprez's army of support from men."

First of all, and it can be said without sounding at all defensive–this poll is most certainly an outlier unless corroborated by other polls. Only one other poll has shown a lead for Beauprez in this race, when conservative-leaning Rasmussen pegged Beauprez with a statistically insignificant 1-point lead earlier this month. Every other read of this race we have seen shows it to be too close to call, with Hickenlooper technically up by a point or two. As we said yesterday, we've heard rumors about internal polling that shows a bleaker picture for Republicans in both the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races. Up until this poll, though, all publicly available polling has been locked in a tight range.

Bottom line: even if this poll is quickly shown by other polling to be off as we suspect will happen, it gives a big boost to Beauprez's campaign in the short term. Conversely, Gov. John Hickenlooper's campaign can flog this poll with their donor base to instill a sense of urgency–perhaps less of an advantage given Hickenlooper's already massive leading in fundraising, but it will still be useful. Outlier or not, there's nothing about this poll that should make Hickenlooper's supporters complacent. With polling in the U.S. Senate race showing Mark Udall opening a small but persistent lead, problems unique to Hickenlooper (and fairly recent) are his own to remedy.

The only thing we can add is that there is still a very large gap between voter perception of Beauprez as evidenced in this poll, and the words that have come out of Beauprez's mouth into the permanent record. Aside from a couple of isolated exposures, the "WTF Gang"-worthy Bob Beauprez our readers know has never really been introduced to the public. Even worse, he's been misleadingly cast in the local press as a "mainstream moderate," a description that frankly baffles us given what we have reported in this space. How can that term be accurately used on a civil war-fantasizing birther who thinks climate change is a "complete hoax" and sees Sharia law lurking around every corner?

We've heard that information, properly presented, really changes the poll numbers. The problem is that the large majority voters only know what they are told, and they haven't been told much about Beauprez. In the next six weeks, whether Hickenlooper takes the gloves off or third party groups unleash the video clips we all know are out there, the other shoe will drop after Hickenlooper's undeniably tough political summer. In the end, we just don't think Hickenlooper can fall fast enough, or Beauprez rise high enough, to change the outcome.

It had better go down that way, because most people who know the full story are legitimately horrified by the prospect of Bob Beauprez actually being elected governor of Colorado.

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46 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. nota33 says:

    OUTLIER. I'm sure the right wingers are all giddy. Hick leads in just about every other poll.

  2. Diogenesdemar says:

    If you ask me, "trustworthy" is highly overrated . . . 

     

    Gessler 2014 (and beyond)!!!

  3. ModeratusModeratus says:

    Wow, Hickenlooper is much weaker than anybody thought. I wonder what Quinnipiac will say about Udall?

  4. Duke CoxDuke Cox says:

    The ignorant chest thumping by our assembled imbeciles notwithstanding, Hick will face a possible upset if he doesn’t do something to win back the environmental community…
    Hick intends to limit the conversation had by the Blue Ribbon Panel…not a good move. He has demonstrated his willingness to play “toady” for Oil and Gas, inc.

    • SocialisticatProgressicat says:

      Hick isn't a leader.  Don't expect him to lead.

      Beauprez will lose this election, just like Tanc and Maes did last time.

      For me, Hick's election is less a cause for celebration and more one for relief.

    • Sunmusing says:

      Yep, there are a bunch of us "envirnmentalist/tree huggers" not happy with the good Gov…Toady is not the term we use locally tho…umm…the Blue Ribbon Panel was always seen as a gimmick to silence us ordinary "peoples who would never be appointed to a captured blue ribbon panel"…cynism aside, we need to support Kerry Donovan in her bid to replace term limited Gail Schwartz…The State House and Senate must remain in our hands, period…regardless of who is governor…

      • Duke CoxDuke Cox says:

        The State House and Senate must remain in our hands, period…regardless of who is governor…

        I could not agree more. It does intensely matter though, who sits in the governors' chair. There are still plenty of doors open to Democrats with Hick in the office. Otherwise, the first floor becomes Republican turf…it is nigh impossible to get anything done in that circumstance. If the front range environmental leaders are guilty of one thing, it is their failure to take the pulse of the population and , subsequently, a tepid approach to conflict. Remember, in politics, the only thing that rivals money is access.

        We need Hick back on the first floor…without him, our chances diminish. Beauprez isn't just a toady…he is a cheeleader. Hickenlooper will take any little self-interested morsel the industry will give him and trumpet it, pathetically. as some sort of environmental bona fides….Beauprez will pick up a banner and lead the charge for the "drill, baby, drill" movement. Environmentalists be damned…

        at least we might be able to a guilt trip in Hick…if there is one.

        All that aside… the "fracking" dialogue is about to change dramatically on the heels of a new study, done back east in Pennsylvania…I'll find the link…

         

        • gertie97 says:

          Duke, my worries about the blue ribbon panel were greatly diminished when Hick appointed Russ George and Bernie Buescher. For once the Western Slope will be well-represented.

          • Duke CoxDuke Cox says:

            You may have missed my earlier comments on the subject, but I agree with you that Bernie and Russell will serve honorably and honestly. My worry is, because of manyof their historical relationships,  they will not be inclined to fight vigorously to keep the industry from moving the goal posts, as you know they will try to do. Time will tell.

            We also have the advantage of having matt Sura on the panel. Matts' wife is a GJ native, I believe, and Matt spent many years here. He is one of us….I also know that Gwen Lachelt will serve justly and admirably…she is from Durango…one of the "Ancient Warriors"…

        • Duke CoxDuke Cox says:

          able to exploit a guilt trip ….  couldn't let that one go….

  5. JeffcoDemoJeffcoDemo says:

    As we discussed this a few nights ago around the extended family dinner table, "this one we need to plug our noses and pick the least offensive."  When the opposition is this crazy, it makes it a little easier, but still painful.

  6. MichaelBowmanMichaelBowman says:

    The real test as to whether this is real or not is whether Chris Christie decides to "put it back in". I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for him to summon a fluffier.

  7. exlurker19 says:

    I got called by Quinnipiac for this poll.  I guess my voice was obviously feminine because they wanted to speak to another member of my household.  And they were willing to call at a different time (to get someone of a different gender?–just sayin') to speak to someone else.  Then I told them they were calling my office and if they really wanted a "random" poll, they needed to upgrade their calling lists.  But I told them if they wanted to listen, I was willing to trash talk Republicans, but, sadly, they hung up.

    • horseshit GOP front grouphorseshit GOP front group says:

      Wow.  Sounds quite unbiased and professional exlurker !

    • DavieDavie says:

      Maybe Quinnipiac is desperate for publicity, even bad publicity, just to get their name out there.

      I just answered a local robopoll on the Aurora Pit Bull ban repeal.  Once I told them I was a firm No, I want to keep the ban, and was 100% a likely voter, it took me through several attempts to see if I would change my vote in favor of repealing the ban.  Never gave me the option to say, I'm not changing my vote — it only asked "will this information make you more or less likely to vote Yes?"

      Really speaks badly for the trustworthiness of polling, which might actually be part of the GOTP agenda.  FUD is their stock in trade.

      • BlueCatBlueCat says:

        But would you be more or less likely to vote for the ban if I told you a sweet little old lady would be thrown out of her home and dumped out of her wheel chair every time someone votes "yes"? Huh? Would you? Come on. I'm waiting for your answer.

  8. BlueCatBlueCat says:

    Just one note. Rasmussen isn't the same as it has been in the past. Nobody's polls give Obama lower disapproval and/or closer approval/disapproval than Rasmussen has consistently for months.They'll often have Obama at minus 1 or 2 or 3 when the next nearest is minus 10 or 12. Then, the very next day, they too will have it down to minus 9 or 10 and back to minus 3 the day after. In other races they are outliers on the right on some, on the left on others. Seriously, have you been following them in RCP? They're all over the map.

    Instead of left leaning I would now characterize them as just very shaky and probably using poor models that send them off the deep end in different ways in different races.  It no longer works to automatically assume that Rassies are always a few points less favorable to Dems. They no longer make enough sense to draw any particular conclusions either way.  Don't know WTF is going on there. Best to draw no conclusions.

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