We are pleased to present a Q&A with Steve Grazier, political reporter for The Cortez Journal. Mr. Grazier will join us LIVE from Noon – 1:00 p.m. to answer your questions.
Mr. Grazier is a Kent State University journalism and mass communications graduate who began his professional career as a public affairs/media specialist in the Air Force (he flew with Army Golden Knights and Air Force Thunderbirds for stories). Grazier moved to the four corners two-and-a-half years ago to work for the Cortez Journal.
You can read our first 11 questions below, and then ask your own in the comments section. As always, we only have one rule: you may disagree, but you may not be disrespectful.
And now, on with the show…
Q&A With Steve Grazier of the Cortez Journal
1. What are you hearing about Referenda C & D in Southwestern Colorado? Does either side appear to be gaining ground?
I’ve heard that a lot more conservative Republicans in the region are not favoring C and D, but it appears most of the Democrats are rallying behind the effort. I think voters are starting to see that some state services are not only legitimate but essential, such as roads and public and higher education. (Locally, passing C and D would ensure $13.2 million for shoulder and intersection improvements along U.S. Highway 491 – the old route 666 and Devil’s Highway – from the New Mexico-Colorado state line to just south of Cortez. This work could help reduce the number of head-on collisions each year, thus the label Devil’s Highway.)
Some groups have recently endorsed the measures, such as the Southwest Regional Transportation Committee, the state League of Women’s Voters, the Cortez (Re-1) School District and the Cortez City Council. Therefore, I see C and D gaining some momentum, but I wouldn’t call it an avalanche of support just yet.
Like I mentioned previously, I’m feeling some push with the “yes” effort, but there are still a few points to make up.
2. If the election were tomorrow, do you think voters in Southwestern Colorado would approve C & D?
My Vegas odds tell me 53 percent “no,” and 47 percent “yes” for the southwestern counties of Montezuma, LaPlata, Dolores and Archuleta. An interesting note may be the contrasting voting results last year in Montezuma and LaPlata counties. In 2004, Republican candidates won every race on the ticket in Montezuma County (Cortez), from president all the way down to county coroner. In LaPlata County (Durango), it was completely the opposite as Democrats swept the day.
3. How do you think the three gubernatorial candidates are coming across in Southwestern Colorado?
I’m not sensing a whole lot of excitement regarding any of the trio. Part of that is due to timing as most voters tend not to pay much attention until after the state party assemblies and/or during the primary season. It’s party activists who are really into this thing at present. I sense that the ongoing mud slinging between Bob Beauprez and Marc Holtzman is a turn off to voters, but I guess you have to keep playing that name recognition game for visibility.
Do any of them seem to be taking an early lead in terms of perception? I hate this answer, but I think it’s a wash at this point and time. No one has come up to me and said Beauprez, Holtzman or Bill Ritter was their guy. Ritter has yet to appear here in Cortez, but he may have made a pit stop in Durango. Therefore, I haven’t had an in-person sit down with him… Bill, if you’re out there, swing by the southwest corner. The Democrats out here want to meet you.
4. From what youve seen and heard thus far, where do each of the three gubernatorial candidates have an advantage and/or disadvantage in Southwestern Colorado?
All three candidates are living in and mostly linked to the Denver-metro region. That doesn’t look so good when many voters of Southwest Colorado already feel ignored and disenfranchised by what happens at the capital, especially when it comes to road improvements and water issues.
I can’t count the number of times I’ve heard from voters, “Most of our water is diverted to the Front Range, and all the transportation money goes to Denver and Colorado Springs anyway. Those cities outnumber us, so why should I care what happens in Denver?” If there is a coming out party of additional gubernatorial candidates after the Nov. 1 (C & D) election, many people here are crossing fingers for a southwestern or Western Slope horse. (Nice segue into question #5 ehh…)
5. What do you think is the likelihood that Scott McInnis will run for governor?
I got about two minutes of governor chat in with McInnis Sept. 24 at a Montezuma County GOP fund-raiser dinner. I think the chances are good (70-30) if, in his own words, “the dynamics change.”
What would make him jump in, and what would keep him out? I think it would be a sure bet for McInnis to get in if Beauprez bolts on or before the so-called drop-dead date of Nov. 15. McInnis’ voice still carries weight here in the southwest. I do believe he might be waiting for an outcry from supporters who want to drag him into the race feet first.
As he thinks this over, I do think waiting a few more weeks doesn’t hurt. Let Holtzman and Beauprez duke it out, then let an untarnished McInnis slide in late as the closer. (The only negative I see right now with McInnis is that he may have to answer specific questions on keeping his wife on the payroll when he wasn’t running for re-election to Congress in 2004. A legal maneuver, but one that’s not justified to many on the left.)
6. Aside from water, what one or two issues do you think will dominate the political discussion in 2006?
In my mind alternative fuels and the economy will continue as big issues. Southwest Colorado isn’t privy to a major airport, nor do we have a railway system. The only way to transport goods or products to and from here is by freight. The cost of gas her per gallon in this area has been at $2.97 for a couple-three weeks now, so I think there will be a lot of talk on the topic of biodiesel. Whoever campaigns down here will have to cite the alternative-fuel issue and should have an idea for a potential solution.
On a related topic, keep an eye on the home heating costs this winter. If bills reach $1,000 or more per month it could spell bad news for President Bush and incumbent Republicans.
7. How would you handicap the race in CD-3 between John Salazar and Scott Tipton?
Salazar obviously has an advantage by being the incumbent. He has D.C. avenues to raise money, and I’ve never met anyone who’s better one-on-one than the congressman. Salazar seems to be defining himself rather well as a moderate too. He’s joined the blue-dog coalition, and said he supports President Bush in pushing forward meaningful, long-term immigration reform. Salazar did side with 41 other Democrats in voting for the REAL ID Act, which aims to devise binding identification requirements meant to prevent illegal immigrants from receiving driver’s licenses, restrict asylum policies and call for repairing holes in fencing along the Mexican border.
Other GOP-related issues Salazar has supported include the elimination of the estate tax, changes to bankruptcy laws and class-action lawsuits and tightening parental notification laws on abortion.
I feel as though electors of Southwest Colorado are rooting for a Salazar vs. Tipton race. It would help put the focus on issues important to the area, such as alternative fuels and multiple use. Water will be debated no matter what.
Tipton has put thousands of miles on his car getting out to GOP lunches and meetings from Trinidad all the way to Rifle. He’s really hitting the pavement to attend functions that have less than 10 people and as many as a couple-three hundred. If he remains the lone, active Republican in the race, he will be a serious contender against Salazar. Republican voters outnumber Democrats by about 16,000 in the 3rd District, so if Tipton can rally the base you can probably throw a percentage point his way just for that. (Salazar won the election last time by about 14,000 votes.)
Tipton has already met with White House officials in D.C. and more recently in Denver, and he has plenty of friends in the state with influence and deep pockets. I’m not sure what issues he will choose to be the core of his campaign, but I’m pretty sure the topics he will discuss first are to include immigration, water and job creation.
Its a sure bet that D.C. Democrats and Republicans will be throwing a lot of dollars into this race. Dont be surprised if this election is the second-most watched sprint in the state, not far behind the governor’s race.
8. If John Salazar were to run for governor, as some rumors have suggested, who would you anticipate to take his place as the Democratic candidate?
The name that first pops into my head would be that of Jim Spehar, former mayor of Grand Junction and a current city councilman. Spehar challenged Salazar during the 2004 Democratic caucus and finished with 27.4 percent of the vote, or 2.6 points shy of getting his name on the primary ballot. He would seem to be a logical fit and someone who the Democrats would trust and at least look at. (Though I believe Salazar quenched that rumor with a firm denial late last week.)
Would another Republican then enter the race as well? If Salazar were to bolt Congress, you might see Greg Walcher, who filed candidacy papers in January, take a more serious look. He is not actively campaigning, but with some dollars still in the bank he might be able to hit the ground running more so than anyone else. However, I believe there are too many obstacles to overcome for Walcher to give the 3rd District another go.
9. What legislative race will be the most heated in Southwestern Colorado?
This question rocks and is pretty much a no-brainer. JIM ISGAR vs. MARK LARSON, if we get it. Im not so sure how “heated” this race will be, but more so its my take that many people will be watching it in the southwest and around the state. Southwest Colorado has been lucky the past few years to have two legislators who work so well together. I know most voters of both parties will be sad to see one of them go.
Larson is a four-term representative here and the only elected official I have seen go to a Democratic function and receive an applause for his presentation. He is more in touch on the issues than anyone I know and will be a tough and skillful campaigner. Larson doesn’t seem to let partisan politics determine how he legislates. Larson has bucked the GOP once or twice. His public endorsement of Ken Salazar last year over Pete Coors had some local Republicans fuming. But that has cooled since, and the GOP Central Committee here is enthusiastically backing him 100 percent.
Isgar’s record on water and agriculture is solid, plus he’s the incumbent and holds the post of assistant Senate majority leader. However, I’ve heard from a credible source that the Joan Fitz-Gerald -Jim Isgar ticket is a go if she decides after Nov. 1 to run for governor. Isgar, who acknowledged having gubernatorial discussions with Fitz-Gerald in the past, would be tapped as her running mate and the choice for lieutenant governor.
An Isgar-Larson race would not be dirty or disrespectful. And if he decides to run again, Isgar will be as tough to beat as any incumbent in the state. Similar to the 3rd CD, Senate District 6 has more Republicans than Democrats. In 2002, Isgar was the victor over then-state Rep. Kay Alexander, R-Montrose, by a few thousand votes.
10. What is your read on the illegal immigration issue and how it might play out in your part of the state? Are there particularly strong feelings for either side?
Since Colorado isn’t a border state, my take is that the present feeling isn’t too strong on illegal immigration here among the voters, but candidates will be touting the issue. It will be talked about in the 3rd District race, and most likely it will be something that electors will be watching later on.
11. What is the strangest thing you’ve seen in your time covering politics?
My experience in the political arena is somewhat shorter than your other journalism guests, but the one thing that stands out in my mind is the 2004 GOP primary debate in Durango between 3rd District hopefuls Walcher, Matt Smith, Gregg Rippy, Matt Aljanich and Dan Corsentino.
I swear, these guys never made eye contact more than once, and you could feel the division and frustration between them all. It was like cocktail hour at Southfork during a “Dallas” episode. The message on each of their faces appeared to be, “just get me out of here.”
If you have a question for Mr. Grazier, ask away in the comments section below. He will answer your questions LIVE between Noon and 1:30 p.m.
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Thanks for answering our questions. What about Bernie Buesher in Grand Junction? Do you think he will keep his seat or run for something else?
With national Republicans getting the party in trouble, do you think voters will be inclined to turn out just for the sake of the party, esp in the Salazar-Tipton race?
Do you see any other Democratic candidates emerging to challenge Bill Ritter? If so who might they be?
Thank you
Salazar had strong support from two traditionally Republican bases – vets and rural folk – because served in the Army and is an active rancher. What’s your sense of party loyalty in the Southwest leading into 06?
How much you think the oil and gas industry impacts politics on the West Slope? Whether it’s legislation or contributions to pro-gas development candidates, can this industry play a part on tipping the balance between D’s and R’s?
Hi Beth,
To be honest, BB is one Western Slope legislator I’m not too familiar with. I know he and Holtzman duked it out a couple weeks ago, but I’m not sure if he’ll follow Josh Penry and shoot for a higher office or not.
I do believe John Salazar will not bolt the 3rd CD prior to 2006. My bet is on him to run a tough race starting this spring.
hey boomer,
If anything, bad news can keep some pissed off voters at home for sure. There is still more than a year til’ election day, and we’ll have to see if the GOP can change the tide. To combat bad news – if it’s the case – it’s my guess that if Tipton talks more on 3rd CD issues than national ones he won’t feel too much of an impact.
Hi Steve,
Thanks for taking questions. Can you please explain in general or in logic why the Western Slope is admantly against selling water to the Eastern Slope? Why not let the market work?
Have a pleasant day.
-Kevin
Ritter Is It,
I think it’s too early to take Joan Fitz-Gerald and Andy Romo off the potential list just yet.
I know a few folks down here in the southwest are rooting for Jim Isgar to jump in, but that is very, very unlikely.
Plus, he’s pretty much tapped to be JFG’s Lt. Gov. if she decides after Nov. 1 to give the governorship a go.
Good day Troi,
It’s my take that party loyalty will be out in full force for both parties in 2006. Bickering seems to be at an all-time high of late in D.C. and even here in Colo. with Beauprez and Holtzman. But here’s hoping that Salazar and Tipton can keep things professional as gentlemen.
“Kaplah” and “live long and prosper” Troi…
Hi Steve. What have you heard about future economic issues for the Western Slope, and how do you think they could play into upcoming elections? I’m referring specifically to the Demographer’s Office forecast of huge growth by 2030. What kind of futures issues do the Front Rangers need to understand?
RP Dem,
Oil and gas are huge in this part of the state. When that resource finally goes away, you can bet our county property taxes will inflate big time.
As far as contributions go, I’m sure oil and gas companies play a political role and give dollars to candidates who are pro development
Multiple use is an issue I expect to be big in the 3rd CD race and the District 6 Senate race. I plan to ask questions to candidates on this when the campaign season hits full swing.
Steve,
What’s the future of 4-corners politics? It really seems like La Plata is moving further and further left. Montezuma doesn’t seem to be changing a whole lot – Dem’s like Isgar, Chavez, and Wilson will occasionally win, but are the exception. But, with La Plata’s growth, do you think Dems will be the majority in districts like the 59th in the future?
Also, what do you make of the HD 59 race? Will Colgan and Roberts get out of their primaries, and then who’ll win that race?
Kevin,
I think there’s a seed of mistrust among some farmers and ranchers out here toward the city folk. The ongoing drought hits more, in percentage, of people in the west b/c of the economics in farming, ranching, agriculture and tourism.
Because of drought conditions, the current market isn’t working for some people.
What have you heard about future economic issues for the Western Slope, and how do you think they could play into upcoming elections? I’m referring specifically to the Demographer’s Office forecast of huge growth by 2030. What kind of futures issues do the Front Rangers need to understand?
Ian,
We are experiencing a high amount of growth here in the southwest, typically b/c of the outdoor opportunities here on public lands and being close to Mesa Verde and Telluride. A lot of people find it affordable to move here from Calif. Sell a home there for $900,000 and buy the same kind here for $250,000 – not a bad plan.
Front Rangers may want to understand that b/c of the growth, we’ll need more of our water and need some additional funding for wider and better paved roads, thus hopefully stimulating other business to start up.
The upcoming C and D election does have some money targeted for these issues. Maybe it will help as a band-aid if it passes.
with La Plata’s growth, do you think Dems will be the majority in districts like the 59th in the future?
Also, what do you make of the HD 59 race? Will Colgan and Roberts get out of their primaries, and then who’ll win that race?
4-corners,
Montezuma and LaPlata counties are quite different. A lot of it stems from MC being more agriculural and rural, and in LPC you have Ft. Lewis College, bigger hotels and business and of course more population.
Too early to tell who will be in the majority after the 2006 election. The 59th and Dist. 6 swing back and forth and whoever wins is generally a candidate with appeals from both Dems. and GOP voeters.
Sorry, I can’t really give my take at this point on individual candidates such as Colgan and Roberts. I do think it will be an interesting primary for both sides though.
Please join us in thanking Steve Grazier for taking the time to answer your questions, and check him out online at The Cortez Journal.
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