Republicans Need Down-Ballot Miracle in Jefferson County

We've talked plenty in this space of the inconceivably ridiculous problems that Jefferson County Republicans have brought upon themselves and the rest of the GOP ticket this fall. Problems began long before the June 24 Primary Election, but things have only gotten worse since Tea Party favorites Tony Sanchez (SD-22) and Laura Waters Woods (SD-19) won their respective Primary races for the GOP nomination.

Jefferson County Republicans have had trouble recruiting strong candidates in the most important electoral county in the state, and they've even had trouble just convening a vacancy committee before the deadlines outlined in state statute. There's little dispute that Jefferson County will decide the outcome of Colorado's statewide races — as goes Jeffco, so goes Colorado — and a continued poor showing by GOP legislative candidates coupled with community anger at the Jeffco School Board could have a lasting effect in November. Fundraising figures don't provide a complete picture of the problems facing Jeffco candidates, but the comparisons are telling. Take a look at the chart below:

There are a handful of legislative races in Jefferson County that we are not including here, primarily because they are not really competitive seats for one Party or the other (HD-22, safe GOP seat; HD-24, safe Dem seat).

Taking into account the theoretically competitive Senate and House races, seven Democrats have raised $871,173 through the most recent — and final — quarterly fundraising period of 2014. Republicans, meanwhile, have raised about $272,406 — or about one-third the amount brought in by Jeffco Democrats.

In both HD-23 and HD-29, Republican candidates were late entrants after the first batch of GOP candidates were scrubbed from the ballot. Replacement candidates Jane Barnes and Susan Kochevar, respectively, have done very little in terms of raising money.

On the Senate side, Republican Primary winners Laura Waters Woods (SD-19) and Tony Sanchez (SD-22) have been less-than-impressive in their own fundraising efforts

While the outcomes of these Jeffco legislative races may not end up changing the makeup of either the State House or State Senate, the margins of defeat could have major repercussions for top-ballot candidates such as Bob Beauprez and Cory Gardner. If the races for Governor and U.S. Senate come down to Jefferson County voters, a weak stable of legislative candidates could spell D-O-O-M.

 

 

8 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Gray in Mountains says:

    looks like JeffCo Rs have been taking things for granted

  2. JeffcoBlue says:

    The hell you say. Victory is certain! The elephant will triumph! Guns! Dunlap! Arrrrr!!!!!!

    • FrankUnderwood says:

      You forgot the zygotes, too.  I just got a mailer the other day re:  Tony Sanchez (the "Defend Freedom" candidate) and his rather freedom-less positions on reproductive rights. 

  3. thomas_m says:

    Here's the catch with reported fundraising numbers: they don't include soft money expenditures by "interest groups".

    For example, in the Jeffco School Board election last year, the mainstream candidates outraised the conservative candidates by a considerable margin. However, thanks to soft money funneled to groups like the far-right Jeffco Students First, the conservative school board slate was able to send out many more mailers, post more yard signs, even create a fake news site (the Jeffco Observer) to promote the conservatives and denigrate the mainstream candidates.

    Even though these numbers look great, don't take them as authoritative indicators of outcomes.

  4. Craig says:

    And you keep ignoring the tight race in the open seat HD 25.  Janet Doyle has raised only $9,000 short of what the Republican has raised, with almost no PAC or Union money.  He's raised a lot of PAC money because of the perception that you keep pushing that Janet can't win.  She's raised enough money and worked hard enough to win in this 47% Democratic District that is trending towards the Democrats. Udall won this seat 6 years ago.   If we don't win in the year when it's an open seat, our chances will be less for the next 8 years.

  5. mamajama55 says:

    Rachel Zensinger and Laura Woods will participate in a forum at the Arvada Chamber of Commerce tomorrow, Wed Sep 10 from 11:30 – 1.

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