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January 03, 2008 08:32 PM UTC

Iowa Caucus Open Thread

  • 125 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee win their respective caucuses in Iowa. Democrats Joe Biden and Chris Dodd withdraw from race after getting just a few more votes than you.

There is a separate open thread below – use this thread for your Iowa Caucus discussions.

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125 thoughts on “Iowa Caucus Open Thread”

  1. My main guess is that the results will be uncertain and close at the end of the night and the press won’t wait for a final count but will declare a winner based on the initial results.

    Dems – I think all 3 will be within 2 points of each other. If I had to guess, Obama/Clinton/Edwards. If I got to pick Edwards/Obama/Clinton.

    Repubs – Huckabee over Romney with McCain in a far 3rd place

    1. I said

      Dems – I think all 3 will be within 2 points of each other. If I had to guess, Obama/Clinton/Edwards. If I got to pick Edwards/Obama/Clinton.

      and look, I got the top 3 in the top 3. And for 2/3 of them I had how close they were.

      Wow!

  2. Clinton will pull it out with a better field program (that includes a significant field operation on her behalf by the unions) and Edwards will squeek by Obama with his populism that I believe resonates more strongly than people are willing to admit at this time.  $100 a barrel oil and tough/uncertain economic times will have people very open to Edwards populist message.

      2. to all three top Democratic campaigns for the excellent GOTV efforts. Not only did Obama and Edwards benefitted tonight, but it’s going to benefit the Democratic movement throughout 2008. Keep up the hard work everyone!

        1. and no, I’m not from Iowa, but thanks Miss Ive and CD Smith.  I have been following everything going on there for FAR, FAR too long.

          I remember a quote from that I think was from the Carter campaign.  ” The Iowa caucuses are over, someone turn the lights off”, and thats about how it feels today.

          On to New Hampshire.  Very, very exciting time in US politics.  

  3. has the following probabilities for #1 finishes:

    Obama: 65.4% chance

    Clinton: 22.0% chance

    Edwards: 13.5% chance

    Note: these are probabilities, NOT percentages of the vote.  Also, having the second highest probability of winning doesn’t necessarily mean one is headed for second place.

    Since I’m now volunteering for the Obama campaign, obviously I have my preferences.  But an Edwards win would be nice, too, so long as Obama ends up second.  I like Edwards, and a win here would get his poverty message a little more play.

    2. Obama: 68.8%

      Clinton: 18.6%

      Edwards: 13.3%

      You can tell they set up the market some time ago.  You can vote on Dodd or even Gore, but not Biden!  I think we’ll see Biden in a strong fourth.

  4. I just saw Obama speak about the need for a politics that isn’t about tearing the other guy down, even though Obama is running radio ads attacking Edwards’ health care plan for requiring people to buy health insurance.

    I want to believe in Obama, but thatkind of hollow rhetoric does nothing for me.

    1. The SEIU (endorsing Clinton nationally, Edwards in IA) has been airing ads pitting Obama against Edwards.  Slimy tactic, and Obama has spent considerable time denouncing the ads which aren’t even remotely his…

      1. There have been plenty of negative statements by Obama against both Hillary and Edwards, whether in ads or in person.  I’m not upset by negative campaigning, if it’s fair – but don’t be a hypocrite about it.

        1. I call Bull Shit on this argument. Obama, after being repeatedly attacked for cycnical reasons (a picture, his youth, his religion… or rather a lie about what religion he practices), he began questioning his opponents policy positions, not their family history, their religion or character. He’s always rallied against the politics of cyncism. He hasn’t been a hypocrit. He’s been honest, and authentic.  

          1. I agree that it’s ok to criticize another candidate’s policy positions.  And that’s why I’m not supporting Obama – he favors a tax increase on some middle class families and he doesn’t have a plan for universal health care coverage.

            But yeah, I think it’s hypocritical to say the other guys are part of the attack style of politics, and then go ahead an attack them.

            Don’t use the excuse that Republicans hit Obama unfairly, so it’s ok to hit Clinton and Edwards.

            And as for Obama’s cocaine use as a youth, Obama has used his time abroad as a youth as an example of his credentials on foreign affairs.  You can’t have it both ways.  Either his decisions and experiences as a youth are out of bounds, or they are fair game.

            1. He has a plan for Universal Health, it’s just not identical to that of Clinton’s; which her plan is identical to Romney’s plan in Mass. that has already failed to provide HC to all.

              While Republicans attacked Obama first, Clinton’s campaign picked the bones and tried to use those very same attacks in third person… “the republicans will say (fill in the blank).” Speaking in 3rd person to smear someone is still smearing someone.

              And, if you’d like to debate experience, Clinton touts her time in the WH as first lady, while she accomplished absolutely nothing in that time. Her pet project was blown out of the water and she wears that terrible time in our country when we were denied universal health care by insurance companies as a badge of honor (and then goes and takes more money from those very people than any person in DC!).

              What experience (outside of failing to pass Universal HC) does Clinton have other than being on on Bill’s arm?  

            2. must be thriving.  When did Shaheen become a republican?  What about Penn?  (Yeah, I know it seems like he’d be more at home there, but last I checked he was officially still a democrat.)  And those republicans who’ve taken over the maintenance of Clinton’s campaign web site are really something.

              1. I’ve never understood why so many unions are endorsing Clinton over Edwards and Obama, especially looking at what Bill did with NAFTA, who she has hired and who she worked for in Arkansas (WALMART!).

                But I digress. As much as we debate policy, influence of money in politics, and the impacts of those positions on the country, I must admit that our field hasn’t punched below the belt like the republicans have

    2. Since when did a vigorous debate about specific policy fall out of bounds?

      Let’s get real here, nothing the Dems are airing comes close to the sort of personal smear campaigns any of them will face once the GOP gets organized behind a candidate.

      But an ad that disagrees with another candidate’s health care plan — isn’t that precisely the point of a campaign? Sheesh.

      1. Zogby’s numbers before the caucus tonight:

        When I redistribute the second choices among supporters of probable unviable candidates, here is what I get: Obama 37.5%, Edwards 33.7%, Clinton 28.8%

        and one particularly interesting note as to why Clinton lost:

        A final word on Iowa: The issue is change, and Clinton decided to run as an incumbent. When it became clear that voters in Iowa were looking for change, Clinton became the candidate who kept changing — not the one who symbolized change in Washington…

        Perhaps the biggest problem that Clinton and her team never anticipated is that they, essentially, ended up running against both Jack Kennedy and Bobby Kennedy. Edwards (the Bobby) tapped into an anger that our polls measured in big numbers. His message is powerful for Democrats and I believe he will move on to New Hampshire. Obama has connected with young people and Iowans looking for hope and opportunity with an energetic message reminiscent of Jack Kennedy. Tomorrow this will still be a three-way race.

        So what happens next? Will Clinton keep “changing” her message, imagine, strategy and more? Or has the torch been passed back to the big-tent Democrats?

  5. Obama appears to be collecting the support of the lesser candidates for 2nd votes.  Kucinich and now Richardson have both instructed their partisans to cast their second vote for Obama should they fail to reach the 15% threshold.

    2. I saw posts saying that Richardson among others (not Kucinich, he’s a definite for  Obama as second choice) has denied saying that he will urge his supporters to go to Obama and that this is another political trick out of the Obama camp.  Have not been able to confirm the truth through googling so far. I would be very disappointed if these second tier candidates are all shilling for Obama but I also don’t think Iowans will take orders as far as their second choices are concerned and Edwards polls best in that role.  

        2. on CNN (just after 4PM).   Blitzer asked him if he, like Kucinich , was asking his supporters to go to Obama if he didn’t make the 15% and he said NO.  He feels he’s gaining steam and is completely  focused on his own campaign and is  not recommending ANY alternative.  

          1. but right, there are few wholesale agreements of the form: if I’m not viable, vote for him.

            A time-honored (if ugly) tradition of the Iowa caucuses is to make microdeals, where for example is candidate A has a few extra supporters that won’t make up a whole delegate, but candidate B is close to another delegate, then a couple of A’s supporters will move to B.  This kind of math is done in the individual precinct caucuses, and the requests come from local influential characters (mayors, city council members, etc.) who have endorsed individual candidates.

            So I’m sure something like this was discussed, got leaked by someone or sometwo who overheard, and then massaged into a “Richardson throwing support to Obama” story.

          2. there has been talk of both Biden and  Dodd pointing supporters to Obama.  Don’t know about Biden but Dodd said yesterday in an interview on MSNBC that he is NOT telling his supporters who to  vote for if he doesn’t make the 15% cut.  Looks like a disinformation campaign from Obama camp to undermine second choice support for Edwards.

            So far, all the Dem disinformation campaigns seem to be coming from the Clinton and Obama camps.  Not from Edward’s camp.  Seems like a real time demonstration of who does and doesn’t represent business as usual to me!

            1. Can you prove this is coming from the Obama campaign? And as for your claim about Edward’s, as much as I like him as a candidate, his campaign was caught in an email coordinating with an SEIU 527 on… here’s a shocker… on a negative flyer.

  6. Huckabee wins in Iowa, but, in traditional Iowa fashion, loses in the Republican primary and does not get his party’s nomination.  Romney wins the Republican nomination.

    Likewise, Obama wins in Iowa, but loses in the Democratic primary.  Clinton wins the Democratic nomination.

        1. I think he can win with any of the top three candidates, but I honestly believe his chances become a lot more difficult with HRC. Unlike Edwards and Obama who can sway the Independents and swing some moderate Republicans, bolstering a larger turnout in favor of downticket candidates, Clinton pushes away those very same voters.  

      3. I was living in the NY area when Clinton and Giuliani ran for Senate.  The Clinton “machine” — which is fundamentally a negative campaigning machine from what I saw — was very effective against Giuliani.

        I believe she has yet to engage that “machine”, but when she does, it will effectively trash Obama.

        I suspect that lots more Dems owe allegance or favors to the Clintons than owe Obama.

        1. Running a Rove-like campaign is something we should reward? I think it gives me, a liberal democrat, a reason to not vote for Clinton. Does anyone else get the feeling Clinton has only pushed voters away rather than engaged them as an inclusive big-tent Democrat should?  

          1. I don’t think Rove-like negative campaigns are good things — but they are effective.  In a negative campaign, the knives come out close to the election date when it’s impossible to respond or deflect the attack.  Iowa’s caucuses are too early (and too small) to get nasty.

            It’s all about winning and the Clintons understand that.

            1. that as an insult towards you, but rather a question. I completely agree with your assesment that it’s effective at leaving the voters questioning the character of the candidate (who like Kerry doesn’t respond in time), and leaves them bleeding votes. The Dems, to this point, haven’t gone that far.

              However, it’s all about winning for the Clinton’s and they will pull out the knives after losing Iowa.

              Another indicator of the Clinton’s campaign style is who they being supported by financially, which is why they are willing to take cash from any and all special interest PAC’s & Lobbyist.

              Other the hand, we have Obama and Edwards who are only accepting money from individual donors. And today, Obama’s campaign announced they have recieved donations from over 500,000 donors, more than any other campaign in US at this point. That’s incredible.

    2. I just finished dinner at the Chophouse for my girlfriend’s B-Day.  I told her we had to go so early so I could watch the caucus results starting…well…right about now.  “Indignant” describes her feelings as well.  “Oh well” just abous sums up how I feel too…  😛

        1. Apparently “we” have decided that it would be “tons of fun” to spend tomorrow at the Denver Art Museum followed by B-Day dinner round 2 at The Palm…

          Oh well, it was still worth it.  😉

          1. I have 3 daughters (and no sons). So I’m always wrong and it’s always my fault.

            What’s really funny is once they start dating it changes from “Dad, why do you always say and do these stupid things” to “Dad why do guys always say and do these stupid things?” Gotta love it.

            Anyways, have fun at the Denver Art Museum. Better you than me.

            1. Me, too.  Overall, it’s been a great journey.  My family could always use the great shorthand of “The girls.”

              They are really tight with one another, which is probably hard to do with a male child thrown in.  That’s the lot of my grandson, who has three sisters!  (Blended family.)

              When they were little, they often had their friend Blaine from across the street stay overnight.  Well, they’ve stayed in touch and now Blaine jokes, “Yeah, I’ve slept with all of the Verizzo girls.”

                1. Boys, as you and I both know, have the need to cut the umbilical cord.  One reason that my ex and I moved from FL to CO so many years ago.  Hadda do it.

                  I think my girls, did too, in a balanced sort of way.  Still close to Mom, but very much their own lives.

                  It will be interesting for my daughter and myself as her son matures and becomes a teenager.  Not sure I will know what to do!

                  2. No daughers, but my son just turned 1 a few days ago.  My Dad called to wish a happy birthday and told me to just wait till he starts smoking pot and calling me an asshole !

                    OK, my father has a bit of a twisted sense of humor but I was rolling on the floor laughing.

                    1. Oh so so true. And with daughters it’s worse, I remember what I was like as a teenage boy and I have to let my daughters go out with testerone filled twerps like that!!!

                      Boy does it come full circle then.

  8. If Edwards comes in 3rd place, he’s done. He’s been on the ground in Iowa since 2004.

    His message doesn’t sell as well in New Hampshire so going into that primary in 3rd place gives him no momentum. He has to finish in first or second place tonight if he wants to remain a viable option in his bid for the presidency.

    As they say in Vegas, he’s all in and if he can’t do better than 3rd, his campaign is over.  

    2. First, he may hold out until South Carolina is over, even if he comes in 3rd.  He might even hold out until February 5th – most of the candidates have the cash to hang on that long.

      But you’ve got the basic idea of it; Edwards has had an active campaign in IA for a long, long time – though his actual on-the-ground time in the state isn’t much more than the other major candidates.  If he can’t at least pull a strong second, the media will jump all over the meme that you articulated and Edwards will be pretty much done.

  9. ABC says their entry polling shows Obama/Clinton tied for first, Edwards trailing.

    However, that can change a lot in the actual meeting. Cross your fingers (Repubs too since you all insist Edwards is the most beatable).

    – dave

  11. Live results at Iowa Dem website (real cool, it refreshes every 30 seconds). Edwards is still ahead but it’s getting closer – 23% reporting:

    Senator John Edwards : 33.06%

    Senator Barack Obama : 32.20%

    Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.14%

    Governor Bill Richardson : 1.78%

    Senator Joe Biden : 0.70%

    Senator Chris Dodd : 0.08%

    Uncommitted : 0.04%

    Precincts Reporting: 433 of 1781

    2. Thanks for the link–it’s clearly what NPR is using for their data since I heard them update stats in the seconds right after a refresh.

      Does anyone know if our state party is planning to do something similar? (Or if they’ve done it in the past?)

      —Louella

  13. Obama/Edwards/Clinton, especially if they are all within 1%, leaves it a 3 person race…

    Senator Barack Obama : 32.79%

    Senator John Edwards : 32.35%

    Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.02%

    Governor Bill Richardson : 1.73%

    Senator Joe Biden : 0.97%

    Senator Chris Dodd : 0.09%

    Uncommitted : 0.06%

    Precincts Reporting: 554 of 1781

  14. The Republican caucus system is faster (and more sane) and so their results will come out faster (although their website is still unresponsive, like their politics).

    This is amazing – 2 months ago Huckabee was living in his mom’s basement, had maybe 1%, and was in the “forget it” category.

    And now he’s in first place and if he wins NH, which he could, then he’s the clear front-runner.

    I think more than anything else it speaks to how unhappy the Repubs are with all their candidates.

  15. From DailyKOS (Iowa GOP site finally came up – saying results will be there – sad).

    Bad guys:

    269 of 1,781 districts reporting

    Huckabee      36

    Romney        23

    Thompson      14

    McCain        12

    Paul          11

    Giuliani       3

    I was hoping to see Paul come in a strong 3rd – talk about the Republican party getting really confused…

  16. Ok, we’re at 55% reporting. So figure all the small and most of the medium sized caucuses have reported. But we don’t have any of the big ones yet. The small ones clearly went Edwards – and that is the small towns and rural.

    The medium ones went Obama and that will tend to be the suburbs. So that moved him up a couple of points and pushed Edwards down toward Hillary.

    Now we get the big meetings (and the ones where people talked foreaver). And that tends to be the center of the cities. I have no idea how that demographic leans but we could see shifts again.

    But Edwards does seem to be staying 0.4% ahead of Hillary…

    Senator Barack Obama : 34.52%

    Senator John Edwards : 31.61%

    Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.13%

    Governor Bill Richardson : 1.69%

    Senator Joe Biden : 0.98%

    Senator Chris Dodd : 0.04%

    Uncommitted : 0.03%

    Precincts Reporting: 1000 of 1781

  17. Ok, here it is from CNN with 40% reporting so this is close to final:

    Huckabee 14,045 31%  

    Romney 10,084 23%  

    Thompson 5,950 13%

    McCain 5,194 12%

    Giuliani 4,901 11%

    Paul 4,379 10%  

    Hunter 168 0%  

    Here’s the problem for them – Huckabee scares the Repub leadership, possibly more than any Repub since Teddy Roosevelt. So the leadership and those in charge are going to be fighting with a large part of their base. That’s devastating for a party.

    And then there are 4 candidates in 10 – 13% basically tied for 3rd place. For all of them they have a good reason to stay in the fight and go for 3rd to be left over after Huckabee & Romney wipe each other out. SO this means they remain with a 6-way race.

    This leaves every substantial interest group in the party with their candidate and 5 others they hate. The party’s going to be in shreds. I love it…

  18. Take that CNN/ABC/MSM… with your entrance polls saying Clinton had Edwards beat. Ok, with 76% reporting we have:

    Senator Barack Obama : 35.78%

    Senator John Edwards : 30.69%

    Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.52%

    Governor Bill Richardson : 1.89%

    Senator Joe Biden : 0.98%

    Uncommitted : 0.10%

    Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%

    Precincts Reporting: 1347 of 1781

    We have Edwards 0.17% of Hillary. I think that is enough for him to stay in second, although I have visions of this one old grandma at the last causus wavering abck and forth, back and forth, and her vote decides the winner – by 0.000001%.

    With Obama winning by 5 – 6%, which is gigantic, this race is now wide open. At a minimum it is even between Obama & Clinton. And depending on how the press plays Edward’s finish, he remains a serious contender.

    We’ve got 3 strong candidates, all of them liked by most of us, and with different approaches to how to govern. I think we’ll have a really good primary, one that helps us figure out where we want to take the country, and how.

    It’s a good time to be a Dem.

    1. The only reason Fox even lists Thompson is he’s their choice. If it had been Ron Paul in 3rd with Thompson’s numbers they would have said Huck, Romney.

      The Republican primary is going to be bloody…

      1. Thompson actually got third, McCain fourth, and Paul fifth.

        They reported what happened, what’s your beef other than the fact that I watched fox?

        1. Edwards & Clinton were so close that it is legit to report all 3.

          But on the Repub side with the way the numbers were I think it should have been just Huckabee/Romney or report all of the top 5. Definitely McCain too as he was what, 0.0001% off of Thompson.

          I just want fair & balanced reporting…

          1. They included the top four finishers on both sides.  On the Dems, it was Obama way up in front, Edwards and Clinton neck and neck, then Richardson with his lame 2%.

            The Rep side has already been outlined.

            I don’t understand what’s unfair about that.

  20. Back when I worked at Microsoft someone wrote a little program that put an icon on the screen with the Microsoft stock price displayed. And ever 15 minutes it would update. (This was back in the days of Windows 3.1.)

    A good friend of mine there used a network sniffer to see the packets sent to the program. On April fools day he had a program of his start sending packets so everyone saw the price go up $2.00, then down $4.00, all over the place, getting wilder and wilder for an hour or so.

    People were screaming in their offices until they realized something was wrong and the number were BS.

    Sitting here watching the final numbers come in with Edwards & Clinton so close… it’s wild.

    What is really off I think is that Edwards & Clinton tied for second (and Obama kicked ass). But it won’t be reported as tied for second, the one who beats the other, even if by one vote, will be second. That’s how we count it in America

    Well with 89% in Edwards is 0.28% ahead. I think he’s got it.

    Senator Barack Obama : 36.94%

    Senator John Edwards : 30.09%

    Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.79%

    Governor Bill Richardson : 2.13%

    Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%

    Uncommitted : 0.10%

    Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%

    Precincts Reporting: 1588 of 1781

    1. From several posts above …

      My Predictions

      Huckabee wins in Iowa, but, in traditional Iowa fashion, loses in the Republican primary and does not get his party’s nomination.  Romney wins the Republican nomination.

      Likewise, Obama wins in Iowa, but loses in the Democratic primary.  Clinton wins the Democratic nomination.

      My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government.  Thomas Jefferson

      by: bpilgram @ Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 14:34:38 PM MST

      [ Reply ]

      Now I guess we’ll see if I’m right about the primaries …

      I’m off to buy a lottery ticket (grin)

  21. You need to click here and make a donation to John Edwards. I don’t care if it’s $5.00 – it’s showing support to keep running.

    Dems – having John as part of the conversation as the election continues will help whoever becomes president focus a bit more on the issues he raises.

    Repubs – you all say he’s the easiest to beat – so you want to encourage him.

    Why are you still reading this – click & donate.

    You’re still reading???

    1. So did Obama, but I fear that Edwards 2nd place will get washed out in the media b/c of the surprise about Obama and the huge failure of HRC.  The unfortunate thing is that this could end up like 4 years ago.  All the news was about Kerry’s comeback and the Dean Scream…and that Edwards guy finished second or something was an afterthought.

      The fact that JRE came back from a reasonably solid 3rd to (assumedly) beat HRC is impressive.  Hopefully that will be part of the story in the next 5 days before NH…

      1. And it’s not a little win, it’s a very clear victory 7+% is major. So that will be the big story.

        But Edwards should be able to get mileage because he beat Hillary. If it was Clinton/Edwards/Obama then he would have a rough time as Obama has a lot more money and momentum. But he can ride the “beat Hillary” story.

        It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out over the next couple of days. On to NH.

        1. Maybe it was just me, but it was painfully unfocused.  The beginning and end were OK…but the middle left me wondering WTF he was talking about.  And he thankfully avoided what could have been a “Dean Scream” moment when he started talking about moving on to NH and SC and NV…but he stopped there…

    2. I’m still supporting Hillary, so the longer Edwards stays in and drains votes from Obama, the better off Hillary is.

      The absolute worst thing that could happen to Hillary following today’s results is for Edwards to drop out and support Obama.

  22. 95% reporting and we have:

    Senator Barack Obama : 37.26%

    Senator John Edwards : 29.97%

    Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.53%

    Governor Bill Richardson : 2.15%

    Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%

    Uncommitted : 0.12%

    Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%

    Precincts Reporting: 1680 of 1781

    Blow out win for Obama and that is the big story. I don’t think anyone saw this big a victory – we truly have a contested primary now.

    Edwards 0.45% ahead of Clinton. It’s small but it is a clear win giving him second. He’s still in the race. But he needs to beat Obama in NH or SC because he does not have the money to do anything other than third on Feb 5.

  24. This is exciting. “Inevitability” took a back seat to a new direction, at least for tonight. While my candidate (Sen. Dodd) is most certainly out, the prospect of former Senator Edwards and Sen. Obama looking so strong going into N.H. really gives me a shot in the arm. (By the way, Sen. Clinton just finished her “concession speech”. She was as always, professional, classy, and upbeat. The speech was well delivered. She’s going to the wire, and if she should win the nomination, I’ll vote for her over any republican candidate.) BUT…..my first choice is now Sen. Edwards, with absolutely no problem with Sen. Obama should he garner the nomination. Dave said it first…It’s a good time to be a Dem.    

    3. We have someone like Dodd who as you say, is now out, and most of us are regretful at losing him. He may not be the first choice for a lot of us, but we still regret his dropping out.

      Think about it, we all can point at virtually every Dem candidate and talk about why we support them. And support them strongly enough that we don’t like to see them drop out.

      Happy, happy times. And yes, Dodd is a class act.

  25. From TalkingPointsMemo

    Beyond who won on each side, there’s a very big partisan message out of tonight. Just under 220,000 Democrats caucused tonight. About 115,000 Republicans did. That is a very big vote in itself.

    The Republican’s had every bit as close a race with an even clearer choice between candidates – and that motivated half as many people?

    I think that comes back to more go when they are choosing who is best than when they are choosing who is least worst.

  26. are bringing up a lonely rear.  For the sake of argument (not that we do that here!)where would those voters put them in the top three?  In other words, how many would go to BO, JE, and HC?  

    Of course I’m prejudiced as hell, but I think that a lot would go for Edwards, a few for BO, and the least for HC.  

    That could give JE two more percent which put him within six percentage points of BO (I love typing that.)  

    And where would the HC delegates go if she folds?  

  28. According to all the news organizations, Paul was suppose to get next to nothing (like 3%), and that was the reason why they were not letting him debate. Now he shows up with 10% (after being screwed over in the debates), ahead of guliani, and close to thompson and mcCann (13%). I wonder how faux news and CNN will keep guliani on, and Paul off now? I am guessing that faux will come up suggesting that anybody with a high education can not debate. What will CNN do?

      1. it was a bad night for the establishment esp. the neo-cons. I see hope for the pubs.

        I am not wild about Huckabee (he wants the baptists to take back the gov???? they are the ones that have caused the damage under reagan and W), but at least he is honest and I believe sincere.

        I suspect that ppl are realizing that the majority of the pubs that are running are just as corrupt as W. As I have said for months, I believe that Romney is going to lose because he has associated himself with the neo-cons, and not due to his faith (though it will hurt).

  29. CNN says Biden will drop out too. I’ll miss him also.

    If Gravel & Kucinich won’t drop out the media and debates should ignore them. Richardson did well enough that he still deserves attention for the next couple of elections, but we’re down to 3½ now.

    And Dodd & Biden both exit as class acts. Not perfect but candidates that we can all be proud of.

  30. If you condense the votes tonight into just the top three, the Democratic caucuses don’t change – Obama, then Edwards and Clinton.

    But if you condense the GOP vote, the big winner tonight is… Other.  That’s right – despite Huckabee’s very respectable showing, Other is the Republicans’ top choice in their straw poll.

    More specifically, you can probably break it down into the different Republican sub-groups.  34% voted for the religious guy.  25% (29% if you lump in Giuliani) voted for whatever it is that Romney is – electable, perhaps, or business interests.  And 37% voted for traditional fiscal conservatism (McCain, Thompson, and Paul).

    The remainder of the GOP primary season will be bloody.  Huckabee will soon be feeling the heat from the Republican establishment that doesn’t like him at all, and Romney’s going to get pummeled all the way to next Tuesday in NH as McCain and Paul try to eke out a claim to the post.  Thompson pretty much needs to wait until SC or FL for any strong showing, I think; he’s still technically in the race with tonight’s surprisingly strong finish, but NH and NV won’t be kind to him.

      1. …I come up with Ronald Reagan and Hitler. Double ugh! FDR close.

        (See, I didn’t even have to let the dialogue devolve to Hitler, I got him up there up front!)

        Clinton is a great public speaker, but I wouldn’t call him an orator.

        Bush didn’t make the cut for 8th grade debate club.  

          1. ..I hesitated to add Kennedy because of lack of extensive record, but definitely in the Very Likely camp.

            I was thinking of the last and current century.  We know Lincoln was great with the words, but how about delivery?  Any clues there?  I just don’t know.

            Bryan seemed great in his day but when you look at his accomplishments re presidential races, the Scopes trial, he was always an also ran.  

      2. Agreed Danny – love it, love it, love it. The ball is out of the park.  If that speech dosen’t inspire you then nothing will.  I am praying that he goes all the way.

    2. with what we’ve suffered and endured over the last 7 years! How did this country let the W reign occur? How can so many respect and defend him??

  32. I see, as of 8:30 AM EST that the R’s are still at 96% in, Dems 100%.  The Dem’s passed 96% a couple of hours after the caucuses ended.

    David mentioned the great results via the IA Dem website and dissed the R’s.  Apparently it is not just the web site, but the machine.

    Welcome to R govnernance!  Snark, snark. Couldn’t help myself.  “Help me before I snark again!”)

    2. The R’s are still at 95%.

      The Dems hit that well before I went to bed last night.  I think they hit 96% by 10:30 EST.

      Looking for hanging chads, I presume.

  33. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01…

    The only thing I would take exception to is his thought that Edwards is finished.  I say that if anything, Edwards will do even better at this point.  It’s not like BO beat him 2:1.

    Also, BO needs Edwards’ working on the general theme of change, that you/we are getting screwed.  BO benefited from that even as he avoided specifics.  

  34. The big winner in yesterday’s Iowa caucus didn’t receive a single vote – Michael Bloomberg.

    I’m doubtful that Huckabee will be the GOP nominee when all is said and done, but if he is, Bloomberg runs for Prez as an independent.  

    1. Just a note on McCain, who yesterday said:

      McCain, “excitedly declaring that U.S. troops could be in Iraq for ‘a thousand years’ or ‘a million years,’ as far as he was concerned.”

      The “liberal” MSM loves McCain, but with comments like that, he’s no conservative. Also, don’t you agree that sidling up next to Bush and the neo-cons is just nuts?

  35. “In 2000, the last time there was a caucus in both parties, Republicans turned out 87,000 voters, while Democrats produced 59,000.  There are around 600,000 registered Democrats in Iowa, and about 550,000 Republicans, but when you consider that on caucus nights, Republicans just need to show up and point to a name, while Democrats are committing to two hours of public wrangling, it’s not a surprise that more Republicans show up to be “first in the nation.”

    Except for yesterday.

    When the Des Moines Register poll was predicated on a turnout of 200,000, I was scornful.  And they were wrong — but only because they were too conservative.

    Last night, the Republicans produced around 115,000 voters — an impressive 30% increase.

    But the Democrats turned out 236,000.  That’s an increase of roughly one whole helluva lot.

    And it’s a huge indicator of both how energized Democrats are this year, and how ready independents are to put their chips on the D line.”

    h/t kos

    1. That’s a scientific quantity, right?  🙂

      I think the turnout bodes well for America and democracy (Hope Foggy isn’t listening at my “inaccurate” description.)  Especially at all the young voters in the Dem camp.  

      People turn out when they are pissed off. That’s the success of Huckabee and a solid factor with Obama’s success.  He represented change far more than Clinton II.

      “It’s morning in America.”  Sorry Ronnie, not your kind of morning.  

      1. http://www.bbspot.com/News/200…

        I wish it were morning in America! Thank God there’s a Democratically controlled House…..we need Lieberman to show some backbone in the senate….and there needs to be less obstructionism by Republicans there as well!

        Hopefully the next 382 days won’t be too disasterous. Morning can’t come too soon.

  36. Big time Colorado Republicans were for Romney…lock stock and barrel….big egg on the face.  I expect them to roll out the cliche that Huckabee is just recycled jimmy carter….

    Speaking of egg….went out to breakfast this morning….regular franchise…..wait people and kids in the kitchen were talking….about the Iowa results!!…the name I kept hearing was Obama….

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