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December 18, 2007 11:43 PM UTC

Damn that Arveschoug-Bird!

  • 3 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

We have no idea what that means, but it has something to do with a new report on Colorado’s fiscal future and Referendum C. The report comes courtesy of The Bell Policy Center, The Colorado Children’s Campaign and the Colorado Fiscal Policy Institute.

We didn’t actually read the report, because it’s long and we’re lazy. But here’s the rundown from a press release:

The Looking Forward report makes four key observations:

   * Colorado state services have only partially recovered from the economic downturn. Referendum C has allowed the state to retain more than $1 billion in revenues each year. Even so, most major state programs have not returned to the levels of service attained immediately prior to the 2001-03 downturn.

   * Nevertheless, 2007 is probably as good as it gets. There will be no further recovery of service levels under Referendum C. In fact, it will be a challenge for the state to maintain 2007 levels of service into the future, and we project there will not be enough left over to maintain the state’s roads, bridges and buildings in their current conditions.

   * It is the Arveschoug-Bird formula that will mostly determine how revenues are allocated in the future. This formula largely dictates how General Funds are allocated between the state’s operating budgets and capital budgets, and it will continue to do so throughout the study period.

   * Budgets for the major areas of state government are interrelated. Because all General Fund revenues are fully allocated, any further increases in state services can come only through new revenues or at the expense of service cuts elsewhere. That means none of these critical issues can be addressed in isolation. The state needs to act only from a comprehensive understanding of how all these pieces fit together.

These key observations are the result of seven findings:

  1. Colorado’s schools, colleges and universities, health care safety net, human service programs, prisons, transportation system, and building maintenance all depend on General Fund revenues for much of their funding.

  1. General Fund appropriations will need to grow by a compound average rate of 6.3 percent annually to maintain 2007 levels of service through 2013.

  1. The 6 percent Arveschoug-Bird General Fund growth formula could force some cuts in the projected appropriations needed to maintain 2007 levels of service through the six-year study period. It will certainly not allow any further increase in services.

  1. Assuming continued economic growth, state General Fund revenues are projected to grow by a compound average annual rate of 5.2 percent through 2013.

  1. Projected revenues will not be sufficient, even with the increased dependence on General Fund revenues, to maintaining the state’s buildings, roads and bridges in their current condition.

  1. The new state revenue limit imposed by Referendum C, which takes effect in FY 2010-11, is not likely to limit spending during the study period.

  1. Projected revenues will not be sufficient to accommodate new or expanded services.

Comments

3 thoughts on “Damn that Arveschoug-Bird!

  1. AB was a law passed by the Leg that limited spending growth (as opposed to limiting revenue growth like TABOR).

    However, AB became constitutionalized by TABOR.

    The difference between TABOR and AB essentially our capital construction budget.

    Why do I know this?  Because Tom Russell, who is running for Romanoff’s seat, is on a personal mission to fix the mess created by TABOR and its ilk.  

    As you would expect from a stanford educated law professor, he loves explaining the details because he wants other people to understand them as much as he does.   Less espected from a law professor, he prefers Hawaiian shirts to suits–who knew.  I don’t understand this as well as I should, legal history is a bit weak for me, don’t ask to see my transcripts.

    TABOR and the other conflicting measures create a straightjacket of “good ideas”.  I’m sick of “good ideas” with bad implementation; implementation that lacks a robust understanding of the interaction of disparate laws.

  2. In the corporate world I came from, the budget wonks spoke in a language that resembled English.  The same appears to be true for government budgeteers.

    Here are the budget requests (year-over-year percentage increases) by major department for FY 2008-09 (requested amounts) where the budget requests are allegedly subject to the 6% A-B limit.  The info comes from the Governor’s web site for those of you who will invariably accuse me of making this up.  Here’s the link:

    http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Sat

    Don’t ask me why or how the requested amounts in each individual department can be greater than 6%’ cause I don’t know.

    For simplicity, I excluded any department with a budget less than $10 million.

    Department

    Corrections +6%

    Education +5.2%

    Health Care Policy +7.2%

    Higher Education +8%

    Human Services +4.2%

    Judicial +6.5%

    Legislature +6%

    Natural Resources +6.1%

    Personnel +10.2%

    Public Health +10.2%

    Public Safety +10%

    Revenue +4.9%

    How this adds up to satisfy the 6% spending limit I cannot even begin to speculate.

    Note that no department in the entire state ever requests (or appears to ever suffer) a decrease in budget.

    In the corporate world, if a department requests a 10% increase in its budget, it has to justify that request by proving that it will deliver results that are worth the increase.  In the world of government budgeting, however, I suspect such processes and reviews are absent.  Government appears to assume that whatever an agency did last year, it will keep on doing that next year with an adjustment for inflation.

    Will Higher Education outcomes (as measured by some metric) be 8% higher if the department’s budget increases by 10%?  Will crime (you pick the metric) drop by 10% if Public Safety gets 10% more money?

    Absent some sort of accountability, I fear that this budget process is a giant black hole.  Maybe the legislature needs a dose of Doug Bruce.

    1. AB only governs general fund appropriations.  Capital construction expenditures are not covered by AB.

      I am surprised that any of the departments request lower than 6% (they can’t make up needs in the future–and the compounding impact can hurt them down the road), but remember these are requests.

      I am not the right person to explain how this all works.

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