Why New Coffman® on Immigration, You Ask?

endangeredcoffman

Politico's James Arkin supplies the answer:

Voters in seven GOP-held congressional districts would be less likely to vote for their current representative if he doesn’t support immigration reform, according to the poll from Public Policy Polling. The number of voters who would be less likely to support their current congressman ranged from 40 to 47 percent, while the number of voters who would be more likely ranged from 19 to 31 percent.

Voters also said they were less likely to support Republican candidates in general next year if the GOP House members block the current immigration reform proposal.

The Hill's Cameron Joseph:

The districts surveyed include five with high numbers of Hispanic voters, represented by Republican Reps. Jeff Denham (Calif.), Gary Miller (Calif.), David Valadao (Calif.), Mike Coffman (Colo.) [Pols emphasis] and Joe Heck (Nev.).

And from Public Policy Polling's memo:

The reason voters would hold it against their officials if immigration reform does not pass is that there’s overwhelming support for it in each of these highly competitive districts. Anywhere from 61 to 69% support the proposal the Senate passed last month. There’s also a sense of urgency on the issue with 75 to 78% of voters in each district saying they think it’s important the US fix its immigration system this year.

The poll confirms something our readers already understand, which is that Rep. Mike Coffman is one of the most endangered incumbent Republicans in America–primarily due to redistricting that transformed his former Republican stronghold into a diverse battleground. The problem for Coffman is, his new moderate view on the issue of immigration has not made the jump from rhetoric to votes–and based on Coffman's recent weasely vote against DREAMer students, there's little confidence that New Coffman® can suppress Old Coffman long enough to actually vote in favor of comprehensive immigration reform. We'd say the odds are at least even that he won't.

Well folks, here's a poll saying that could mean the end of Coffman's political career.

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16 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Duke CoxDuke Cox says:

    the end of Coffman's political career.

    wouldn't it be loverly?

  2. Urban Snowshoer says:

    ColoradoPols wrote: “[R]edistricting[…]transformed his former Republican stronghold into a diverse battleground.”

     

    Could the Congressman face a primary challenge if he votes for legislation that includes a pathway to citizenship?

     

    I don’t the answer, I’m just wondering—more than one Colorado Republican candidate has tied themselves in knots trying to appease both the base and general election voters.

    • If I were looking at this rationally, I'd say Coffman should be safe from a serious primary challenge if he does that. But the Republican Party isn't rational, and this district's Republicans have a history of being less rational than some, especially on this issue.

      ArapaGOP is probably more tied in to the current thinking in the district party than most – what say you? If Coffman were to vote in favor of a path to citizenship and it were to pass, how upset would district Republicans be?

      • ArapaGOPArapaGOP says:

        We trust Rep. Coffman to vote his conscience. We know that he won't support amnesty without enforcement.

        Sorry to disappoint you.

        • Gray in Mountains says:

          no De would support anesty without enforcement. But, Dems know the border is more secure than it ever has been

          • MADCO says:

            But what Arap is talking about is some mythical 60 foot high steel nd wire wall from California to the Gulf stream waters.

            It's not about Canada. It's not about containers moving through the various ports. It's Ioddly) not even about punishing employers. 

        • DavieDavie says:

          In other words, the CO GOP is willing to give Mikey a pass on this issue because even you guys realize he's dead meat otherwise.

          • Curmudgeon says:

            Except that kind of "say I have one position when I've clearly shown another" only works with low info voters like Guppy and his pals.  The people he thinks he's going to fool aren't as willing to believe lies. 

        • ElliotFladenElliotFladen says:

          Legalization with conditions is not, as a matter of definition, amnesty.  And as a fellow conservative, you should be mindful of this section of Atlas Shrugged ArapaGOP:

          There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws. Who wants a nation of law-abiding citizens? What's there in that for anyone? But just pass the kinds of laws that can neither be observed nor enforced nor objectively interpreted – and you create a nation of lawbreakers – and then you cash in on guilt. Now that's the system, Mr. Rearden, that's the game, and once you understand it, you'll be much easier to deal with."

          -Floyd Ferris

          Its a sad day when a fellow conservative forgets the lesson of that passage as applied to the immigration debate. 

  3. exlurker19 says:

    As a resident of CD-6, I can only say, NOT ONE MINUTE TOO SOON!!!  Woo-Hoo!!!!

  4. gertie97 says:

    No tears for Mikey. He has his lovely state pension and will have a very nice congressional pension. All that and a hard-working wife! What more does a GOTP critter need?

  5. DavieDavie says:

    Even if Coffman somehow manages to sound like a socialist (um, I mean moderate) in favor of AMNESTY, uh pardon me, I get a little carried away….

    Anyway, if he survives the Nov. 2014 election by appearing to be sane, I can promise the day after he'll revert to Old Coffman to court his teabagger base as a mea culpa.

  6. Littletonian says:

    I still think Coffman was a better target in 2012 than he will be in 2014. If only we'd run someone with a more coherent campaign strategy than Joe Miklosi's…

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