President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
July 31, 2007 10:53 PM UTC
41 Comments
1. Mitt’s apparent disregard for the south. Do you think his 4th place running in SC is because of lack of name recognition, or is the south just against his values?
2. Obama’s shortcomings in Iowa. From what I’ve heard, he isn’t doing much of anything there, and has decided to focus on New Hampshire and SC instead. Apparently this is working (or working against him).
And way to pull 2% in SC Bill Richardson. Well played.
Obama has seen these short term blips before and hasn’t been able to sustain the trackion. It will be interesting to see if he can hold his ground.
Iowa is a different animal.
Since it is a caucus state, organzation absolutely trumps everything else; money, message, charisma.
On the D side Edwards has been building an organization in Iowa for 6 years. That explains his results exceeding is performance in national poles. Hillary obviously is well organized plus she has Vilsac, which strengthens her operation considerably.
I think Obama has decided not to use too many resources since 1) it looks like Edwards will keep Hillary from achiving an overwhelming victory 2) he doesn’t have enough time to create an operation to rival hillary or edwards.
The election is wide open and IMO polls at this point are almost meaningless.
28 offices (more then any other campaign) and two rounds of TV buys not really playing fine. For a state with less then 2 million people, about 100,000 caucus goers Obama is giving it everything he’s got.
Edwards has been there since 2002–obama maybe late 2006
that’s not enough time to make up the gap.
Hillary has the clinton machine which you so often praise combined with vilsac–I’m surprised that edwards is in a dead tie even with his time in country.
IA is Obama’s neighborhing state with the eastern half picking up the IL media market so they have seen Obama’s senate ads. Obama has had a big head start in IA. The fact is the people their do know him they just don’t like him, which is a bad sign for how he would do in a lot of the country.
Edwards not leading in Iowa, in fact for you Richardson fans, pay attention to this more accurate poll…
http://www.cnn.com/2…
WASHINGTON (CNN) — The polls in Iowa are showing something very different from the national polls.
Former Sen. John Edwards is running third in national polls, but he leads in Iowa.
1 of 2 The front-runners in the national polls are Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York among Democrats, and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani among the Republicans. But there isn’t any national primary. The race starts in Iowa, and national trends don’t mean much in Iowa, where caucus-goers are famous for not being trendy.
Remember what happened in 2004 to national front-runner Howard Dean? He ended up losing Iowa. And screaming.
A new poll of Iowa caucus-goers by Research 2000 for KCCI-TV in Des Moines shows former Sen. John Edwards in the lead for the Democratic nomination with 27 percent. Sen. Hillary Clinton comes in second with 22 percent, and Sen. Barack Obama is third with 16 percent.
Clinton and Obama have both dropped 6 points since the last Iowa poll in May. What happened? Here’s one theory from Edwards. “We’ve had two good people, Democratic candidates for president, who spent their time attacking each other instead of attacking the problems that this country’s faced,” Edwards said.
If Clinton and Obama are down in Iowa, who’s up? Undecided is up the most (6 percentage points). New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is up 4 percentage points. Richardson’s dogged campaign may be beginning to pay off.
from the Edwards campaign saying the Des Moine Register has Edwards up by 29 points in their latest Iowa poll. There certainly seems to be a VERY wide disparity among various polls.
Wasn’t that precisely John McCain’s strategy in 2000?
but that was Wes Clark’s strategy in 2004, and he was basically forgotten by the time NH rolled around. The fact is, if Hillary wins IA, NV, and NH, the race is over before it started. Obama is taking a big chance by not playing in IA, as the press from IA can dramatically shift the numbers in every other states, as it did in 2006.
If edwards beats hillary, I don’t think that’s the way it plays out.
Also though Hillary is polling well in NV, I thnk attitudes haven’t formed yet. NV isn’t used to being an early state, so the electorate isn’t trained to think about politis early.
Let’s face it. Anyone who hasn’t yet made up their mind about Hillary Clinton, Nevada or elsewhere, is not going to. They’ve had 15 years; nothing’s going to change in the next few months.
most of her support is soft support. she makes many d’s uncomfortable particularly off the coasts. I haven’t made my mind up about her yet. she hasn’t stuck her neck out on anything since her failed (but noble) attempt at healthcare reform. I can’t make my mind up about her because I don’t know what her convictions are. Its not that she is a flip flopper, its that she avoids taking a stand.
a Hillary fan. Don’t see her taking any strong stands on things I care about. Still, if it has to be Hillary I like her better than any R. But talking about soft support, we keep hearing that her greatest strength is among less educated single women. Well guess what? That’s a demographic with a VERY low voting rate. She is unpopular among men, indies and not so popular among better educated and married women. How much of her support comes from women who will answer pollsters on the phone but who rarely vote, much less in primaries? This is also the first time I’ve seen Obama ahead in S.C. And it’s also still a long way until those primaries.
and most of the early states uneducated woman make up a majority of the democratic primary/ caucus voters.
Don’t know who’s talking to you, but it ain’t Iowans. Obama has 28 county offices already open in Iowa. His organization in IA is underestimated at his opponents’ risk.
but IA just isn’t buying his hype. Obama is spending more in IA then any other candidate with his ads and 28 offices. If Obama finishes 3rd in IA he’s done. Not surprising that 3rd is the same spot Dean got because they are basically running the same campaign.
that should answer mitt’s biggest problems. He will lose all the neo-con strongholds in spite of what dobby says.
Giuliani has only the narrowest of leads (1%) in all 3 states. Those leads are not statistically significant.
And Hillary only leads in 1 of 3 states, is tied in one and trails in the other (I assume that the 2nd “New Hampshire” under Dems is actually SC).
Romney has much better numbers in Iowa/NH than across the country. If he can’t win there he’s not going to win elsewhere and people will start bailing.
McCain is done.
Thompson I think has peaked. Maybe he can turn it around but I don’t think so. And he is going to have to work his ass off to have a prayer – which he seems incapable of doing.
He’s counting on winning in CA, NY (obviously) and FL, as well as some of the other large, traditionally blue states in the northeast and midwest.
You’re correct in that if he pulls a first place win in either of these two states, he’ll be hard to stop.
Although I was looking at it from the other direction – Romney, McCain, Thompson, etc have put everything into Iowa/NH/NC and so if they fail there they have nothing.
Your point is correct too. So they are doubly dead if they blow it there.
He is definitely getting some traction. Pleasantly surprising.
I can’t help but doubt ARG’s numbers. For one, they polled in Coloado twice asking about Presidential Primary voters, even though this is a caucus state. Second, they have almost the only polls showing Clinton leading in Iowa. If you look at Pollster.com, they show polls from several firms, and most have had Edwards up, not down 9 points.
(That’s all I have to say about that.)
I seriously hope Giuliani wins the GOP nomination, because it would mean the end of the Republican party and a fracturing of the Republican base. Will the socially conservative party really support someone who has favored public funding for abortion?
I seriously doubt it but I’m fascinated at the possible prospect of seeing how they respond to him as the nominee.
Then Sam Brownback will run for President as the Reform Party candidate and siphon away most of the evangelicals from the GOP. If James Dobson has to choose between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani for President…..he might move to Canada.
John McCain showing confirms his falling standing. Thompson and Romney both have room to improve as they aren’t as well known as Giuliani.
Richardson’s fourth place all along, but this, for him, at least confirms that he’s risen above the also rans, as he is coming from behind.
These numbers don’t make a strong case for Clinton as a front runner, either.
Also, there are two sets of Dem numbers for New Hampshire and I assume that the second is really South Carolina. If so, Obama’s showing is particularly impressive, as Obama has no political history in the South, while both Clinton and Edwards do.
But out of curiosity, I took a look at the ARG numbers in California where McCain has actually gone up 6% (from 18% to 24%), and is nearly in a statistical tie w/ Rudy.
Is California once again defying the laws of political gravity?
Jesus would lose the primary hands down.
He’s far too liberal: wants the rich to give everything to the poor; thinks we should forgive our enemies and turn the other cheek when they ‘trespass against us,’ bestowed the blessings of God on peacemakers, the meek, the poor in spirit, eschewed the self righteous and judgmental, and forgave prostitutes.
No way Dobson would endorse Christ for anything, if He were to really show up and throw his crown in the ring.
The GOP only forgives the prominent men among their rank who visit prostitutes, and I am not sure that counts.
…and after the crucifiction, he was probably against capital punishment, too.
…were at first a Jewish sect and they were very communistic. “All for one and one for all” could have been their motto.