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November 17, 2006 08:51 PM UTC

Allard's Senate Seat Tops in Country

  • 36 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

The political blog “The Fix” at The Washington Post lists the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by Republican Wayne Allard as the #1 Senate race to watch in 2008. As “The Fix” writes, in a commentary virtually identical to our Big Line:

Colorado — Wayne Allard (R): Allard has yet to make a decision on whether he will run for a third term in 2006. He had previously pledged to serve just two terms, and his meager campaign cash balance — $119,000 — seems to suggest he will keep that oath. Regardless of whether Allard runs, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall is in the race and is the likely frontrunner; he showed more than $1.2 million on hand just prior to this month’s election. Another name mentioned is Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, but after his long — and ultimately unsatisfying — flirtation with the 2006 governor’s race, we aren’t waiting with bated breath. Should Allard step aside, expect former GOP Reps. Scot McInnis and Bob Schaeffer to look seriously at running. Former Gov. Bill Owens’s name will also be mentioned but that seems like a longshot at the moment. Given Democrats’ gains in the last two cycles in Colorado — picking up two House seats, a Senate seat and the governorship — this will be one of the marquee races of the cycle.

Mitch Morrissey

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36 thoughts on “Allard’s Senate Seat Tops in Country”

  1. I’ve not heard anything about Jay Fawcett making a run at it, but, he certainly got a lot of name recognition from his race in the 5th CD, just like Rayburn did.

    2. He pretty much flew under the radar in the CD-5 primary, and got his name recognition up just at the last minute.  So everyone thinks they know who he is, and he has the impression of having battled through a tough primary without a blemish; while really, no one paid any attention to him in the primary, and then by the time he was seen as a contender, the primary was over.  Furthermore, he has the potential to be seen as teh un-Lamborn.

      What I wonder about is whether he is electable in Colorado in a state-wide race.  He’ll be getting the best start imaginable, but if he’s just ideologically in the wrong place, then the race won’t go well for him as a front-runner.

  2. Mark Udall has been lined up for this for a long time and he’s the man for the job – no serious contenders.

    Republicans, meanwhile, will probably have some sort of primary contest.  Hopefully it will mirror the professionality , good taste, and mature conduct we saw in CD-5 this year.

    Unfortuantely I can see the GOP organizing to dump a literal hurricane of cash for their nominee after this year, and it’s a bit harder sell to get two Democrat senators elected, even if one is extremely moderate.  On average, I think states like Colorado tend to have a self-regulating balance with representation, and I doubt there will actualy be much momentum carry-over in 2008.  If anything, backlash is a possiblity if the Dems don’t perform.

    That being said, I really hope Udall does what it takes to pick up the seat.

    1. I am going to have to refresh my numbers, but I believe something like 18-20 Republican senators are up this time around. Cash for an ill-defended seat will be hard to justify.

    2. and that is better for Dems than the off year election (this year notwithstanding).

      One thing that could change Mark’s mind is his position in the Congress.

      With the Majority Mark is in great position to look at a subcommittee chair and down the road a full committee chairmanship.  He can run from the 2nd CD as long as he wants to and get elected.

      Will that change his mind?  Dunno.

      Scott is making money, not sure that at the end of the day he decides to run.  He likes to be courted, but will he give up a lucrative law/lobby income?

      Allard may not want to stay in the Senate in the minority.  I am guessing he doesn’t run. 

      Wadhams is on his way back to Colorado.  Where he lands will say a lot about who might run from the R side.

    3. I’m not privy to anything, but there was probably some understanding that Polis would back Udall with tons of money for a Senate race so Polis can run for Udall’s seat.

      On the Republican side, do indeed be watching out for Bentley Rayburn.  It’s said, for what rumors are worth, that he’s been sucking up to the Lamborn camp, suggesting he’s trying to endear himself to get access to Pat Toomey and the Club for Growth as well as the Christian Coalition for Colorado–all famous for ethical campaigns, right?  The Club for Growth would love nothing more than to pocket another U.S. Senator, if indeed Rayburn is maneuvering, as some suspect, to get such an endorsement.  I think, RubyBlue, you will indeed get your hopes fulfilled for a replay of the 5th CD in the Republican Senatorial Primary–but be watching out for the sequel that follows as it did in the general election against Jay Fawcett. 

      1. Will the same be true for Udall supporting Polis in a primary?

        I don’t think Mark would do that to Joan, who he has worked with, campaigned with, and been in a leadership position with Joan in Colorado are turning this state Blue.

        We may hear a Lew Entz excuse from Polis if he loses the primary to Joan, “It’s because Mark Udall didn’t support me!”  Any takers/

        1. Frankly, I hadn’t thought about that one at all.  I’d speculate that part of the package could be that Udall would have agreed at least to remain neutral in the primary–no endorsement to Jared or Joan.  However, it’s a funny thing about politics and some people really compartmentalize their lives on such things.  Udall might just compartmentalize it all too and say, “It’s politics,” and endorse Polis just the same–in exchange for generous support from 527s Polis funds.  Here again, this is all speculation but within reason. 

          The above said, when Polis spent a cool million running for a volunteer position on the State Board of Education–a minor seat in the scheme of things, you know he’s going to unload a ton of money for his Congressional race.  Will Joan have any backers with “527 money” that can match Polis’ private financing of his own campaign?  I just hope that they can stay above the fray instead of getting down in the dirt like Lamborn did in the 5th CD.

          1. I’m trying to think of any winning candidates (higher profile than Polis’ BOE race) who’ve opened the coffers into office.

            Beauprez, Holtzman, Coors, Bridges, Heath, Benson, Schuck … don’t the self-financed gazilliionaires wind up that way for a reason? This isn’t New Jersey.

          3. It would simply be shocking if he did.  Polis and Fitz-Gerald are the clear front-runners, but there will be others who jump in. 

            You don’t think a safe seat is attractive?

            Hell, I’ll bet people move to CD-2 to jump in this damn thing.

            Given the ammount of candidates that are sure to jump in, how can Udall possibly endorse?

            He and his advisors are too politicaly saavy for that.

            In case you’re wondering, names in the rumor mill would include Tom Plant, Jim(?) Rettew [ran against Claire Levy for Plant’s old seat], I’d bet Primaverra will give it at least some consideration.  Also watch out for no-name candidates to come out of the woodworks on this, possibly a real upstart youth candidate.  The rationale for the last point will be especially true if the field does get packed.  Somebody will think, “if I can get all these students to vote for me. . . ” now, it won’t work, but they got good stuff up there in Boulder, man!

    4. Udall might get the nomination, but in my view he’s not a particularly strong candidate.

      Udall does a great job representing his district, but as you mentioned, voters are likely to be slightly biased against any Democrat for ticket-splitting reasons, and say what you want about him, Udall is not a Ken Salazar or Bill Ritter type of Democrat.

      The fact is, I simply don’t believe that Colorado is really “trending blue.”  What’s really going on is that Republicans in the state are trending more toward the hard right (i.e., Tancredo, Lamborn, etc) while Democrats are trending toward the center (Ritter, Salazar, etc).  Hence, a lot of independents like me have become Democrats.

      That being said, if the Republicans put up a hard-right extremist for Senate like Tancredo or Lamborn, Udall would likely win.  However, against a more pragmatic conservative Republican, I would think a win would be very difficult indeed.

      The Democrats need to find a better candidate and leave Udall to represent his district.

  3.   Wadhams is a very talented pol.  He almost managed to turn chicken shit into chicken salad in the U.S. Senate race in Virginia this year.  And he has a track of record making our Colorado home-grown Potted Plant look senatorial, in large part by trashing Allard’s opponent:  millionairelawyerlobbyist Tom Strickland.  (Wadhams could practically pronounce that as one syllable!)
      I don’t know if that will work on Mark Udall.  What’s the worst Wadhams could say about Udall?  Call him a tree hugger?  A Boulder liberal?
      Ruby raises a good point….this state traditionally has elected one Dem and one Repug at any one time (i.e., Haskell and Dominick, Hart and Armstrong, Armstrong and Wirth). 
      In the mid 90’s, Nighthorse Campbell upset that balance and we had two Repugs for a full decade.  Maybe with Colorado trending blue these days, it’s time even things up with two Dems for the next decade.
      I don’t think Hick will challenge Udall for the nomination.  Some of the Hick-mania wore off last week as people were waiting in lines at the voting centers.  I expect Gallagher to challenge Hick next year, be unsuccessful in the challenge but in the process, take some of the luster off Hizzoner. 

    1. I almost hope Gallagher does it, just for the pleasure of finally seeing him lose a race.  Do you really think it likely, though?  Hick may have lost a little luster, but he’s hardly a vulnerable incumbent.

  4. My thinking behind the strong Republican cash flow would be that they’re not going to want Colorado to be a more or less entirely blue state after 2008.

    Plus, if they can’t get somebody in the senate, they’re left with Lamborn, Musgrave, and Tancredo as their image in Colorado.  Those kinds of people aren’t what I believe GOP strategists are looking towards as the future of the party. 

    If the Democratic nominee is even slightly vulnerable I believe that there will be really strong backing for the race.

    1. I don’t think Allard is going to shoot for the third term; he’s not the only Senate target in ’08, and he’s almost certainly not going to be the only GOP Senator to lose.  ’08 is *very* Dem-friendly for Senate races.  No – Allard will sit it out, I think.

      There will be beaucoup cash flowing into Colorado in ’08.  Assuming we officially get the Democratic National Convention, it’s going to be a blizzard of cash on both sides.

      I agree, I don’t think many Republicans want the Tancredo/Musgrave/Lamborn stamp placed on the state party.  But it remains to be seen just which camp of the GOP wins out here.  Do they go back towards the center and away from the whacky wingers, or do the losses of the past two years – headed up by Bob Martinez and backed by the Benson/Owens business coalition – cause a backlash at the local party level ejecting the remaining moderates?  False logic though it is, it’s what the “base” will be looking towards.

      Udall may be many things, but I don’t see him as being particularly vulnerable.  They couldn’t find anyone this year to take him down a peg, after all…

      1. I think Owens had his eyes on an ambassadorship or some other bauble from the Bush administration after the 2004 presidential election but I understood that rumors over a possible affair with a staffer put the kabosh on that so he rode out his full term as governor.  That’s one negative that’s big and the social conservatives won’t embrace him once the dirty campaigning starts.  Then, with his position on “C”, the Club for Growth would murder him.  The question is who it is that the Club for Growth would endorse in the primaries.  If Bentley Rayburn is setting his eyes on high office and trying to cuddle up to Lamborn as an aid to his getting the CFG’s endorsement, he may have a fight on his hands for it if Bob Schaeffer wants it.  When Mike Pence visited Colorado this year, there was a picture posted on the internet that showed Bob Schaeffer greeting him along with other Republicans.  They apparently know each other well enough for Schaeffer to be at a meet and greet for Pence, which makes me think Schaeffer could be the CFG’s guy in a Republican primary–if Schaeffer wants to run. 

          1. As much as I think Pat Toomey is the Prince of Darkness, it would be poetic justice in Schaeffer’s case if the CFG endorsed Schaeffer and Owens was in the primary against him.  Owens threw Schaeffer up against the wall, bent him over, and yanked Schaffer’s pants down to his knees and shafted him in the most vile manner possible.  It was pure evil that Owens had endorsed Schaffer then withdrew it to give it to whom?  Pete Coors?  What a low life Bill Owens is.  And in his particular case, if Pat Toomey screwed Owens, that’s one screw job that would be delivered to someone who deserves it.

        2. This is completely tangential – but I’ve heard various rumors stating that Owens had a kid as a result of the affair.

          No evidence to substantiate this whatsoever . . .

  5. Wow. Bentley Rayburn for Senate. You gotta love a guy who has a full-blown graphic of the border fence on his Web site, complete with coiled barbed wire. Looks kinda like the Korean DMZ. Is this guy a real Coloradan or what? “Get Bent for the Senate!”
    http://rayburnforcon…

  6. The Republican party doesn’t give a rip how awful our three Rep congress-bigots are. All they care about is how safe their seats are.

    So Tancredo they will keep as he has a lock. But MM and Lamborn, if they have credible primary opponents (and Lamborn definitely will), will see a lot of party support go to their primary opponent.

    They were happy to have MM as long as she had a safe seat. Now that it’s clear she’s beatable, they want someone else.

    Allerd will use his promise of 2 terms to not run again since it sucks to be in the minority and he would probably lose anyways.

    1. That’s a good point – they’re probably looking for numbers and safety at this point.

      Musgrave has been on campaign welfare for the last couple cycles and Lamborn seems destined for failure.

      Tancredo, on the other hand, I fear has become part of the natural geology in CD6.

    2.   That describes the Colorado GOP Congressional delegation post 11/7/06. 
        Ordinarily, those running in safe districts help raise money for those running in marginal districts such as R.O.D. and if this had been a better year, Scott Tipton.
        Instead, we saw the spectacle of the national party having to pump lots of $$$ into C.D. 4 and 5 where the candidates should have been self-sufficient as far as money went. 
        Although I don’t recall anything like this ever happening before, but I’m about to say something complementary about Tom Tancredo. 
        Say what we will (and we will), at least the Great Xenophobe held his own and didn’t sponge any resources from the national party, unlike Stillborn and Musgrat. 

          1. While Tancredo may have campaigned for Sali in the general election, Tancredo didn’t endorse Sali in the primary, but Robert Vasquez.  Like Colorado’s 5th CD, a 6 man primary was involved in Idaho. And, like in Colorado, the Club for Growth conducted a sleazy campaign for a candidate who was not highly regarded–and thereby divided the Repubs as a result.  And, as a further result, the Repubs had a hard time holding on to the seats, with significant resources having to be devoted to protect those seats. The Club for Growth cost the Repubs loss of majority control in the Senate (due to its campaign against Chafee) and contributed to the loss of house seats but not so much as to say the loss of majority House control fell foursquare on its shoulders as it is rightly said it does in the Senate.  Nevertheless, when the Repubs had to take money to protect Lamborn, Sali, and other seats that the Club for Growth put in play as a result of its tactics, it drained support for candidates in other races where the extra funds could have been the difference for Repubs to be elected.  With friends like that, who needs enemies, eh?

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