15 thoughts on “Monday Open Thread”

1. As John McCain used to use say, "It's always darkest just before the light go completely out."

   US Stocks Fall Sharply After Market Declines in Asia and Europe: Live Updates – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

   The good news is that with a recession, inflation won't be a problem.

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   1. The over-caffeinated meth-heads on Wall Street and their high speed trading algorithms are putting stocks on sale for us.  While I agree stocks have gotten ahead of themselves, this panic is ridiculous.  The Fed is not going to implement an emergency rate cut based on the job creation numbers.  The main driver of the increase in unemployment is due to more people wanting to enter the job force (a good thing).  I'm not sure the Fed will drop the rates in September more than a quarter point.  Inflation is exactly on track.  Here's Nobel Laureate Economist Paul Krugman's take:

      The Sahm Rule hints at recession. Sahm says don’t panic.

      The thing is, new entrants to the work force, who are still finding their way in the job market, typically have higher unemployment than more established workers. So some of the recent rise in unemployment probably reflects friction rather than a weakening economy.

      But it’s not all a statistical illusion. I like the way Sahm puts it: “The Sahm rule is currently sending the right cautionary message about the labor market cooling, but the volume is too loud.” We probably aren’t in a recession, at least so far, but after many months of high interest rates the labor market is indeed weakening.

      This has clear policy implications, especially for the Federal Reserve. We may not be in a recession yet, but the job market is looking a bit, shall we say, pre-recessionary. To be fair, other indicators are looking stronger. Still, the Fed, as the saying goes, is supposed to skate toward where the puck will be, not where it is right now. We may or may not be about to trigger the Sahm Rule, but there is already a very strong case for cutting interest rates.

      But what about inflation? Glad you asked. On Monday the New York Fed released its latest estimate of underlying inflation, based on an algorithm that’s supposed to separate the signal from the noise. The Fed’s target is 2 percent; the current New York Fed number is 2.06:

      By the way, this is not an outlier. Goldman Sachs has a proprietary measure of core inflation, and it’s also right at the Fed’s target.

      So, back to the Sahm Rule. It looks as if it may be triggered on Friday. Even so, don’t panic; it probably doesn’t mean that we’re in a recession. But the Fed should definitely be cutting rates.

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      1. The Fed absolutely blew it in postponing a cut.  Jobs reports are going to be less rosy the next 9 months.  The ECB had it right in June.  Powell is a pearl-clutching asshat.  A September cut will likely come, but it will be too late.  Of course, it would also help if the US engaged in any real fiscal policy instead of kicking the can to the Fed to handle monetary policy, but here we are.  

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      2. 2% barely qualifies as a correction let alone a recession.

         Unless, of course, you're in the Wall St./Media cabal that would prefer Trump.

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   2. Data is always a pesky distraction for the red hat crowd:

      

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2. Memo to Kamala Harris …..

   Whatever you do, do NOT get in a front of a camera and parrot what John McCain said in October 2008 when he said, "The fundamentals of our economy are still sound."

   Blame it on Jerome Powell – who was first appointed by Trump.

   Blame it on Donald Trump – for first appointing Powell.

   Blame it on the Republican House of Representatives.

   Just as long as you blame it on someone other than Biden. And do it loudly.

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   1. This week, the line for Harris ought to be "my Vice President will be … "

      IF the stock market stays down beyond a few days, a line could well be "Donald Trump claimed the stock market is reacting to his candidacy." 

      If the stock market stays down, then Harris ought to express concern about what the FED will do.  As a bonus position, point out the House of Representatives needs to make certain they act responsibly, get a consensus with the Senate and President Biden, and get the government funded for October 1 so they don't make things worse.

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      1. This sounds smart. I like this. Let's do this.

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3. Kamala Harris is now polling 2 pts over Trump in the national race – 538 Methodology.

   Harris & the Democratic Party has moved 2.3 points up in the past week after Harris swapped in. Scroll down for the polling in several of the interesting closer States:

   • Beating trump in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania & Michigan
   • A little behind in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona & Nevada

   This can move another 5 – 10 points based on Trump's and Vance's negatives. The real key to a blowout will be when women and young people decide to vote… Turnout is the key.

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   1. Awesome!

      2% nationwide is nice but it's also the same margin by which Hillary Clinton beat Trump in the popular vote.

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      1. This is Harris' starting point. She is going to get bumps with her VP pick, the Dem convention and Trump's sentencing. She can still grow that gap

         Trump and Republicans had years to beat up on Clinton and her boat anchor of a husband.

         With Harris, there isn't much time to implement some kind of negative meme that eats away at a person's credibility over time. If they go in too fast then everyone will see the parady that it is. If they pivot to offering solutions rather than personal attacks then everyone will see that they have zero positive policies to offer. Biden put them in a difficult situation and Harris has the talent and momentum to capitalize on it.

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4. She's back …

   Ex-Trump attorney Jenna Ellis to cooperate in Arizona fake electors case

   Ellis has previously pleaded not guilty to fraud, forgery and conspiracy charges in the Arizona case.

   “Her insights are invaluable and will greatly aid the State in proving its case in court,” Attorney General Kris Mayes said in a statement. “As I stated when the initial charges were announced, I will not allow American democracy to be undermined — it is far too important. Today’s announcement is a win for the rule of law.”

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5. Pols, you must weigh in on RFK Jr and thdead Bear Cub in Central Park. <  I just can't even….

   I don’t see how RFK Junior gets any votes after this. I mean, he took freaking Winnie the Pooh and dumped his bleeding body in the Park. I think this is worse than the dead brain worm. If you tell your kid or grandkid this story, they will cry.

   What other critters will crawl out f RFK’s closet?

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   1. Boebert Strategy? Ignore it.

      Brain-worm RFK Jr gets his name in the news cycle for one day.

      The stupidist and funniest part of it is that he's eating a plate of ribs while confessing to Roseanne Barr, who has this incredulous look on her face the entire time. 

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6. Trump is Flailing. He's goin' down. H/T Mahablog.

   I’m seeing a lot of articles like this one by Rex Huppke at USA Today, Has Harris finally broken Trump? He’s flailing, glitching and running scared. “Flailing” is a word that’s following Trump around. See also Edward Luce in the Financial Times, Trump Is Flailing. Google “Trump flail” and you’ll get a lot more. On top of that, he’s only making about one or two personal appearance a week, folks on teevee are saying. And when he does speak in public, it’s the same old, tired nonsense about race and women and immigrants and anybody he doesn’t like. Several reports say that the audience in his recent Georgia rally was thinning out, heading for the exists, even as he was speaking. I’ve read the same thing about other rallies.

   Jim Geraghty at WaPo writes, Does Trump even want to win? This is a commentary on Trump’s Georgia rally, in which he took up a lot of time slamming Gov. Brian Kemp. I am no fan of Kemp, but he’s more popular in Georgia than Trump is, saith the polls.

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