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Colorado Roundup: 5th District No Longer Safe for GOP
As Election Day nears, CQPolitics.com will periodically provide roundups of the key House races in individual states, highlighting major developments in the contests.
The following is an update of general election contests in Colorado.
• Colorado’s 5th District (Rating change). Several House districts that usually are Republican strongholds are unexpectedly subject to serious Democratic Party challenges this year. Most of these involve a political or personal scandal involving the Republican incumbent.
That, however, is not the GOP’s problem in the contest in Colorado’s 5th District, on which CQPolitics.com has changed its ratings to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.
Rather, it is serious resentment engendered by their nominee, state Sen. Doug Lamborn, during his hard-hitting campaign for the Aug. 8 primary that has made the open-seat race less than a slam dunk for the Republicans in the overwhelmingly conservative 5th — a south-central Colorado district (including Colorado Springs), where President Bush took 66 percent of the vote in 2004.
In the Aug. 8 primary, Lamborn finished first in a six-candidate Republican field, edging out Jeff Crank, a former top aide to retiring 10-term Republican Rep. Joel Hefley. Lamborn went negative on Crank, with backup assistance from the conservative national group the Club for Growth, which endorsed Lamborn.
There would be no unity rally in the wake of the primary. Lamborn’s campaign so angered Hefley that he has refused to endorse the nominee, and was even reported to have briefly considered backing Democratic nominee Jay Fawcett, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who served in the 1990-91 Iraq war.
Though it is rare for a retiring House member to refuse to endorse his own party’s nominee, it likely will take much more than an irreconciled incumbent to thrust the Democrats into a highly competitive position in the 5th. Along with Bush’s landslide numbers in the district, Hefley took 71 percent in 2004, and received at least 66 percent in each of his 10 House general elections. And Lamborn, despite the hostility he is receiving from some Republican quarters, holds views on issues that are not substantially different from those of the conservative Hefley.
Nonetheless, Democrats have a credible candidate in Fawcett, a graduate of the Air Force Academy, located in Colorado Springs. Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. John P. Murtha — an outspoken critic of the Bush administration’s strategy in the current Iraq war and a possible candidate for majority leader if the Democrats win control of the House this year — recently campaigned for Fawcett.
The pre-primary reports filed with the Federal Election Commission showed that Lamborn had outdone Fawcett in total receipts, $411,000 to $196,000, as of July 19. But because Lamborn had to spent much more on his primary campaign — Fawcett was unopposed for his nomination — they were much closer at the time in remaining cash: $70,000 for the Republican to $65,000 for the Democrat. New figures including activity in the year’s third quarter, which ended Saturday, must be filed by Oct. 15.
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for some odds adjustments. Yo.
Fawcett could run a perfect race and still lose
defections/apathy?
HELLO, McFly!!!!!
182,000 Repubs
87,000 – Dems
137,000 – Indeps
Dems & Indeps & Pissed off Repubs = a Fawcett Victory!!!!!
http://www.coloradoc…
Odd that Hotaling would have had Lamborn return any donations from ARMPAC (if they’d been successful in getting them)as “inappopriate” to have accepted but then Hotaling, as Marilyn Musgrave’s former campaign manager, isn’t known to me to have said Marilyn’s acceptance was inappropriate. Is this a double standard?
Or, maybe it’s because they didn’t get any donations that it was then safe for Hotaling to say they’d have returned them if they had.
I looked into the info that was posted on colorado confidential about the gambling donation. Interesting stuff. Lamborn received a $500 donation that he took from out-of-state gambling interests. His stated reason for taking the money; “I cannot control those who send me donations.” He went further when he appeared on a Colorado Springs radio station and was asked to defend the donation. Lamborn stated that the organization was taking a “principled position” and that though he personally disagrees with gambling he accepted the donation because they promised to work to stop the expansion of gambling in Colorado. (BARF! GAG!)
Between both of the Hotalings’ and Lamborn’s principled positions, should we trust that if ARMPAC had made a donation to Lamborn, “over which Lamborn had no control”, that the donation would have been returned? Maybe some believe Lamborn would have but I have my strong doubts.
you’d think someone of Lambron’s and Hotaling’s self-proclaimed “morals” would say something.
You’d think…..and you’d be wrong. When their own party screws up, they stay awfully quiet.
“Lamborn stated that the organization was taking a “principled position” and that though he personally disagrees with gambling he accepted the donation because they promised to work to stop the expansion of gambling in Colorado.”
If true, it just means that they’re keeping out new competition. So Lamborn gets to work for that end and claim he’s controlling gambling while he gets to be on their payroll.
Unlike Bob, Doug knows how to really have it both ways (but again, if all this is true).
CA-11 is also rated “likely Republican”, and in that race, Democrat John McNerney leads Republican Richard Pombo in multiple polls by about 2 percent.
So a move to “likely Republican” or “Republican favored” is big news. The pollsters realize the incredible advantage to Republicans in these districts from registration numbers alone, but there are so many races in the competitive categories that even the “likely Republican” races are truly up for grabs this year.
Go, Jay! Too bad Doug Lamborn can’t face up to debating you!
So the “Stuttering Gas Bag” refuses to debate Col. Fawcett?
http://www.nytimes.c…
The Story is popping up allll over the place
. . for republicans given the way the national party seems intent on self-destructing. But Fawcett’s got a budget crunch. He can’t even keep his radio ads up on air. Insider buzz doesn’t win elections, voters do, he’s still going uphill.
Word is Jay is about to hit the TV
When I see it, not when you tell me.
will it be a week long run, just for show? Or will he actually stay on air?
Time’s web site has an article about the GOP’s hidden weapon, which is the 72-hour final ground battle for voters.
And my recent reading about the war in Iraq found several references to the power of religious warriors over ideological ones.
My question is, how well-organized is the CD-5 GOP for the 72-hour effort, and how intensive has that effort been in the last couple of elections?
What do the Dems have to offset that effort?
How much religious fervor is behind each of the candidates, and how much ideological ambition?
Which candidate will do and is doing a better job of rallying his troops?
Your comment about the fanatism of the “religious warriors” is well taken. And I grant you that there are major similarities between the Taliban and the Christian Coalition.
But the much trumpetted GOP GOTV effort in the last 72 hrs. of the campaign is the brain child of Karl Rove. In case anyone missed it, Karl Rove may be facing legal problems again. It seems he may have been the recipient of some of Jack Abramoff’s gifts.
This latest Rove scandal has, of course, been eclipsed by the Foley scandal. But it may serve as a distraction for the man “Shrub” referred to as the “Boy Genius” (when he’s happy with Rove) or “Turd Blossom” (when he isn’t).
Also, keep in mind that by Nov. 4th, close to half of the votes will have already been cast and postmarked in Colorado. Ask Jeff Crank how far Election Day turnout alone will get you.
I have no doubt that the national GOP has an “Oct. surprise” planned for the nation. But in Colo., they actually need three: one to go off next week when the absentee ballots go out, then one to go off when the early voting starts, and finally one to go off on Nov. 6th.
not a big deal, but please do not give karl rove more credit than he is due! bob dole actually started the republican push for votes with his 96 hour campaign (he pledged to be awake for 96 straight hours prior to the election, pretty impressive).
I’ve read about the 72-hour thing . . . sounds a little sensationalistic.
It’s easy for me to get excited about this race, but then I have to remember that they’re grappling for votes in Colorado Springs. Any Democrats there are fighting a losing battle, much as I hate to say it. If Fawcett picks this seat up, I think it will be as good as evidence as any that the general voting public is completely disenfranchised with the GOP.
IN previous years the buzz out of the springs has been limited to to the bees.
But this year I keep getting all kinds of positive (for Dems) feedback from down there, and not just about the congressional race. I have been hearing we very well might pick up 1 to 3 more legislative seats there.
Do not write off Planet Springs yet folks, this could be getting good!
what you think it means. Perhaps you meant “disenchanted” instead of “disenfranchised”?
The latter is what happens when GOP Secretaries of State redistribute your polling machines away from your precinct if it tends to vote Democratic.
The former is the rabid Dominionists over at Focus on the Family and New Life waking up to the shock that GOP leadership has been covering for a sexual predator who liked to have hot, steamy Internet sex with high school boys during important votes on military funding. And that said leadership just gave your candidate a Very Important Endorsement – a real one…
You’re right, total misuse. I always use that word interchangably with disenchanted/disgruntled, etc, knowing that it’s not really similar – but normally it’s not on a blog where people can bust me for it . . . Great post though.
http://www.thehill.c…
Thanks to the Dems and the infamous Motor Voter registrations, people have registered where they have no intention of voting. Sure there may be 137,000 unaffiliated registered voters in CD-5. But how many actually show up to the dance?
Only 30-40% of all registrants actually show up to the overall election. Numbers are higher for parties individually with higher numbers for Repubs, Dems, then Unaffiliates.
The bigger question is whether enough Unaffilaited voters will actually show. First we need to eliminate about 20-30% of those bogus registrations. They mean little. People have either moved, changed affiliation, or died and they appear on the roles. Thanks to Motor Voter folks!!!
Ask anyone who has walked a precinct and dropped literature only to find the folks aren’t there. Massive waste of campiagn funds and volunteer energy.
The true test (in this case) is past performance based on voter turnout. Not registration. Based upon voter turnout in CD-5 Lamborn wins and Fawcett loses. Not enough disenfranchised Repubs to give Fawcett the edge. Just more wishful thinking from the Colonel. Hey Colonel, just because you say so, doesn’t make it so.
Now days, civilians, when told to jump by a retired colonel, simply flips them off. We don’t ask how high. Even if we are veterans ourselves.
NOTE: I asked the Fawcett People to post numbers for a media buy. They didn’t. You folks know that candidates are limited to a degree and that if the purchase is made, and the adds begin, you are not revealing anything that any campaign can request from the stations. What do we have???
NO MEDIA>>>NO MEDIA>>>NO MEDIA. So wheres this big media buy again? Not seeing it.
Put a fork in this bird because this turkey is done.
Mr Handy Man,
I think it’s time you go and take a riddlin. You act like all staff just troll this thing all day long. I am sure most staff are way to busy to reply to your rants.
Fawcett was on the radio first
Fawcett did the most indepth poll of CD5 ever
Fawcett is getting massive media coverage in CO and on the national scale
Lamborn is still not willing to debate Fawcett
Oh and last night a friend of mine who is a repub in the Springs was at a massive Republicans for Fawcett fundraiser… Jay has this and go take a riddlin
-You mean Jay’s $8000 radio buy? The one that lasted 7 days?
-Most in depth poll EVER! You mean the push pull that was supposed to get national love, but didn’t.
-Massive blog coverage. With the exception of two letters to the editor this morning, I haven’t seen Fawcett on the Gazette in weeks. Campaigns aren’t won on dailyKos (ask Howard Dean).
-Why would he? It’s not Lamborn’s job to give Fawcett credibility, it’s Fawcett’s job to earn it.
As for your “R’s for F” site, I’ve noticed there haven’t ever been any new additions since it first went up. Did Fawcett run out of friends he could call in a favor for? Seems like a fundraiser with them would raise maybe 5-6 hundred, tops.
but the big issue on those registration numbers in the Dprings is voter turnover. Having walked a number of precincts in Colorado Springs this year I would say there is going to be a 5-6% turnover in voters since the 2004 election. If the turnover is distributed evenly, then 2 1/2 – 3% of that turnover is Republican. That could be close to 6-10% of the voting base if it breaks that way. That would be a huge swing. I think he combination of the events of the last several months, the large turnover here and the lack of any up ticket draw for Republicans could make this a VERY interesting year for all the races in Colorado Springs.