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October 02, 2022 11:00 PM UTC

Monday Open Thread

  • 26 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“We did not choose to be the guardians of the gate, but there is no one else.”

–Lyndon B. Johnson

Comments

26 thoughts on “Monday Open Thread

  1. R.I.P.  One of the great environmentalists of our time, Dave Foreman, passed away on Sept. 19 at age 75, at his home in Albuquerque.

    1. I saw Foreman at a couple of New Mexico events when I was in college at UNM & he was representing the Wilderness Society.  I remember thinking it odd to have a eco-organization represented by someone conservative.  Obviously, that was before his Earth First!! and monkey-wrenching days. Back when it was okay for a conservative to actually want to conserve the environment.

  2. MEMO TO CHARLIE CRIST

    Why not pose the question to your opponent: If Governor DeSantis had spent less time going to war with Disney and making travel arrangements for immigrants in Texas to go to Martha's Vineyard, might he have had more time and money to address the structural and environmental problems which his state faces?

  3. How do you all think the election is going to go? The polls are not only all over the map, but many of the experts are worried the polls are undercounting Trump/MAGA voters again.

    Which side will get more of their voters to get off their ass and vote? Will enough independent and moderate Republican voters prioritize retaining our Democracy and a woman’s right to choose over inflation, immigration, crime, etc.?

    My hope is. Strong defeat of the MAGA candidates across the country as that would be read as a strong vote in support of Democracy. My fear is enough of a MAGA win that our Democracy is truly imperiled.

     

    1. Read the article you seem to be referencing, and yes, the fact they're polling disproportionate numbers of college-educated voters is concerning.  That said, it's anybody's guess how women under 35 would skew the non-college educated vote. I've been impressed by the activism around Dobbs so far, and remain optimistic that it will be enough.

    2. I’ve been following Generic Ballot polling reported on Real Clear Politics, splitting those in the field BEFORE and AFTER the Dobbs decision; and surveys of “LIKELY” and “REGISTERED” voters. 

      The differences are stark.

      Looking at the “Likely Voter” polls, before Dobbs, none of the 18 polls showed an advantage for Democrats; after Dobbs, only 3 of 31 polls.

      But among “Registered Voters,” before Dobbs the number of polls were about even, with Democrats ahead in 38 and Republicans ahead in 41; after Dobbs, there is a sizeable Democratic advantage, with Democrats favored in 33 and Republicans favored in 9.

      Looking only at surveys of Registered Voters after Dobbs, Democrats lead by 3.0%

  4. Ukraine looks like they are in the midst of another giant advance. Apparently they’ve told the news media no reporting from their front lines right now, apparently because the Russian army has no idea what’s going on and they want to keep them confused.

    Historically when an army “breaks” it happens slowly in places, and then suddenly it all falls apart. Could be about to happen now. At a minimum Ukraine is rolling up additional gains.

    An army can only keep an advance like this up for 5 or so days before having to rest. Figure we’re 2 days in so by the end of the week the press blackout should be lifted as the Ukrainians need to rest and consolidate again.

    At that time I expect to see once again major advances.

    And giant kudos to Biden, his administration, and all in Congress that have supported all this. That’s a giant part of this success.

    1. It appears the Ukraine forces are making some headway in the Kherson area.

      I read some months ago that some of the most anti-Putin people in Kherson are Russian speakers who don't want to be a part of "Putin's Paradise."

    2. Every time I watch an interview with a Ukranian soldier I am so impressed with their resolve and confidence. They have no doubt in their minds about winning this war. I don't know if that comes from the leadership down or if that is just the way they are, but it is amazing to see. They deserve all the support they are getting.

      I really fear what happens if the Putin loving treasonous bastards in Congress take over. There is nothing they can't fuck up, strong support for Ukraine included.

      1. Ukraine's military has been remade since 2014, when some of the Ukrainian forces passively or actively supported Russia and the "Little Green Men" took Crimea and a couple of other oblasts with virtually no fighting. 

        With the invasion, there was immediate and substantial opposition, a burst of patriotic fervor, and a substantial increase in military training among reserves and newly enlisted.  They are quite impressive.

        What I do NOT get at all … Ukraine has a long history of manufacturing and rail transport, agricultural exports and ship building, and a recent history of high tech production and research — and they were somehow among the poorest nations in Europe. 

         

  5. Meanwhile in Iran videos are leaking out. The demonstrations continue and the government is murdering its citizens. And the government’s supportive base believes the religious fundamentalism the government enforces. So they’re good with killing the protestors.

    I think this is going to end badly with the theocrats still in power and tens of thousands murdered. I hope not. I hope the army will refuse to mass murder their fellow citizens. But the theocracy there is very good at holding power at the point of a gun.

    1. Iran revolted in 1979 to replace secular authoritarianism with religious authoritarianism. Maybe this time they'll try Democracy? If they do, MBS should be shaking in his sandals.

      1. You realize that they moved a great deal closer to a nuclear breakout AFTER Trump pulled the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), right?

        Nobody is "giving" Iran anything.  Trump & his Sad!-ministration just made it easier Iran to get to highly enriched fuel and keep the outsiders from knowing precised what is being done with it.

        1. The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) reported that Iran had been in compliance with the agreement. Trump, as usual, listened to the wrong people and pulled the US out.

          Trump also apparently had a "thing" about endorsing anything enacted by the "black guy."

    1. I wonder if discovery will include the CISA report….David I wonder if looking at these vulnerabilities your expertise would allow you to say its not intentional? Code don't write itself. Perhaps a "Code War" might clear it up?

      1. Paragraph two of your link, Negev:

        Exploitation of these vulnerabilities would require physical access to individual ImageCast X devices, access to the Election Management System (EMS), or the ability to modify files before they are uploaded to ImageCast X devices. Jurisdictions can prevent and/or detect the exploitation of these vulnerabilities by diligently applying the mitigations recommended in this advisory, including technical, physical, and operational controls that limit unauthorized access or manipulation of voting systems. Many of these mitigations are already typically standard practice in jurisdictions where these devices are in use and can be enhanced to further guard against exploitation of these vulnerabilities.

        And thus far, EVERY jurisdiction being charged with "physical access to …devices" is run by a Republican.

        1. Thus far, and probably forever. However, based on the report an attacker could:

          1. Gain direct access to the operating system

          2. Escalate privileges and perform privileged actions

          3. Expose cryptographic secrets used to protect election information

          4 .Install/spread malicious code to other Imagecast devices

          5. Print ballots without authorization

          6. Disguise malicious applications

          7. Prevent ability to detect tampering

          Any one of these vulnerabilities should raise and eyebrow, however combined appears suspicious.  Clearly inherent in the design and would be considered a “cheat code” in most programs.

          The fact that this even exists at very least opens the door to skepticism and  answers the question on whether it is physically possible to manipulate voting machines to sway an election. The answer is yes. 

          Who would have the expertise and motive to do such a thing is up for debate; it is a relatively shallow pool, but the possibility or potential for it to happen is no longer disputable. 

           

           

  6. "Federalist Society Love Monkeys" – An Out-of-Control Supreme Court.. Via Mahablog.

    Really good/scary article.

    According to Mark Joseph Stern at Slate, law school professors are having apoplexy over the Supreme Court’s recent decisions:

    "At law schools across the country, thousands of professors of constitutional law are currently facing a court that, in their view, has let the mask of neutrality fall off completely. Six conservative justices are steering the court head-oninto the most controversialdebates of the dayand consistently sidingwith the Republican Party. Increasingly, the conservative majority does not even botherto provide any reasoning for its decisions, exploiting the shadow docket to overhaul the law without a word of explanation. The crisis reached its zenith between September 2021 and June 2022, when the Supreme Court let Texas impose its vigilante abortion ban through the shadow docket, then abolished a 50-year-old right to bodily autonomy by overruling Roe v. Wade. Now law professors are faced with a quandary: How—and why—should you teach law to students while the Supreme Court openly changes the meaning of the Constitution to align with the GOP?"

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