Miklosi Lays a Fundraising Egg; Haney Lays a Loan

UPDATE: The Miklosi campaign issued a rather silly press release this afternoon. Full release after the jump, but here’s the opening sentence:

In a sign of growing momentum, the Joe Miklosi For Congress campaign announced it has $173,000 cash on hand and more than 1,300 grass roots supporters who have already contributed to the campaign.

It’s a very good idea to point out the number of individual donors that Miklosi received in Q4 — that’s always the best approach when you can’t point to impressive totals. But you shouldn’t point out a weak cash-on-hand number, and it does more harm than good to say something like “In a sign of growing momentum…”  

Remember, a press release is not something sent to the general public — the people who receive press releases are generally folks who have some idea of what is going on in the race, and when you try too hard to spin horrible news in the other direction, you just end up looking silly.

—–

Earlier this month Republican Rep. Mike Coffman announced that his campaign had raised $415,000 in the final quarter of 2011. When Democrat Joe Miklosi never sent out a news release discussing his Q4 fundraising numbers, it was a pretty safe assumption that the figures weren’t going to be good.

Today is the deadline for Congressional candidates to file their end-of-2011 reports, and FEC reports show that Miklosi raised a meager $104,451 in Q4. Miklosi raised just $130,000 in his first fundraising quarter, and we’ve said since then that it was absolutely vital for his campaign to have a much stronger Q4. Altogether Miklosi now has $173,700 in cash on hand, significantly less than Coffman’s warchest of $961,374.

Unfortunately for Miklosi, there’s no positive spin that can help him at this point. In order for him to be a top-tier contender that receives the kind of national help and attention needed to defeat Coffman, Miklosi had to be raising at least $200k per quarter by now (which is what Sal Pace did in Q4, and why Pace is on the top of the DCCC’s takeover list). Numbers this low will almost certainly cripple future fundraising, because nobody wants to write a big check to someone who doesn’t look like they can win; money begets money in politics, and Miklosi doesn’t have the warchest to convince big donors to get on the bandwagon. Miklosi’s poor Q4 will also embolden Senate President Brandon Shaffer to make the jump from running in CD-4, where he would almost certainly lose to incumbent Rep. Cory Gardner. Shaffer didn’t have a great Q4, either, but he has shown that he can be a better fundraiser than Miklosi by bringing in nearly $300,000 — a race that is much less plausible for Democrats to win than CD-6.

There are probably a lot of factors contributing to Miklosi’s weak fundraising numbers overall, but when you do this poorly it usually means you didn’t have the necessary connections to put a big-time campaign in place to begin with. We can’t fault Miklosi for trying, but his campaign is all but over now.

The other Democrat currently running in CD-6, unknown chiropractor Perry Haney, raised just $16,025 in Q4 but loaned his campaign $370,000. According to the FEC, Haney now has $684,215 cash on hand — nearly all of it from his own wallet.

 

MIKLOSI CAMPAIGN BOLSTERED WITH STRONG CASH ON HAND AND 1,300 SUPPORTERS GOING INTO2012 ELECTION

GREENWOOD VILLAGE, COLORADO – JANUARY 31, 2012 — In a sign of growing momentum, the Joe Miklosi For Congress campaign announced it has $173,000 cash on hand and more than 1,300 grass roots supporters who have already contributed to the campaign.

“Grassroots donors have been, and remain, a strong source of support for our campaign,” said Joe Miklosi, candidate for Colorado’s 6th Congressional District. “Our supporters didn’t get involved because of lines on a map or numbers in a poll. We are committed to idea that we can and should be working together to reignite the American Dream and restore job growth.”

The campaign reported raising $104,000 in for the 4th quarter despite the eleventh-hour finalization of the congressional map, for a total of $230,000 since the launch of the campaign with a large majority of donations coming online.

The campaign also announced this week the addition of Joe Livoti as Finance Director. Mr. Livoti, a veteran fundraiser who worked on Congressional and statewide races around the country, was referred to the campaign by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).  

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  1. potaoca says:

    Thoughts on Haney’s monster numbers?

    • Half Glass FullHalf Glass Full says:

      He was once disciplined for mistreating patients.

      Not surprising he can afford to lend his campaign so much money.

      • RadioFreeDenver says:

        Perry Haney is an M.D., not a chiropractor. Forgive me if I’m mistaken, but it sounds to me like you’re using that label as a pejorative.

        I can’t speak to the details of any past disciplinary actions, but he has treated my daughter for degenerative disc disease for the past few years. She has been quite happy with her care.

        My home is in both the old and new 6th CD. I received a fundraising letter from the Haney campaign. As best I can remember, I haven’t even gotten an email from Miklosi.

        And to be clear, I don’t have a preference right now. I don’t know enough about either candidate to make an informed decision.

  2. Middle of the Road says:

    These numbers do not support what Nancy was claiming in her diary, that’s for sure. In fact, the numbers are going in the wrong direction. No wonder Brandon Shaffer is giving this district a hard look.

    Money may have started trickling in slowly at first (CD6 residents have a version of learned helplessness, I think), but pundits will discover the pace picked up remarkably in the fourth quarter of 2011.

    • nancycronknancycronk says:

      I said I did not know the numbers. When I inquired, they told me, “Not bad”. I agree, this news is not good for Joe. He’s a great guy, and I wish I had done more to help him in ’11.

      I’ll stand behind the Democratic nominee, whoever it is, and will do what I can. We must defeat Coffman.

      • Libertad 2.0 says:

        they didn’t say they were not not bad, meaning bad? Instead of not bad, meaning good?

        • nancycronknancycronk says:

          I took it to mean “not bad”.

          Unfortunately for Joe, he is not a corporate puppet like Coffman, and not independently wealthy like Haney. Instead, he is a great guy, raised by a teacher (Dad) and a waitress (Mom) who sincerely believes in integrity, public service, and transparency in government. In Q4, the nice guy finished last — you guys were right.

          People with money need to step up and help Joe, one of the best public servants in this state. (Unfortunately, that’s not me.) The thought of obstructionist Coffman thinking he can represent minority members and people who truly are in the middle class, makes my blood boil.

          The eggmendment and the marijuana initiative will help with some of the GOTV, but we need checks from everyone who still believes in old-fahioned democracy.  

      • Middle of the Road says:

        I’m quoting YOU, directly from your diary. Maybe you ought to go back and check what you wrote.  

        • nancycronknancycronk says:

          In my comments, I said “not bad”. In the diary, I said the 4th quarter picked up the pace. I was wrong. (When I was told “things are getting better” I should have asked for clarification and specifics.)

          You were right, MOTR.  

      • Half Glass FullHalf Glass Full says:

        I’ve contributed to Miklosi but he needs to do better. We in the 6th CD are starving for a competitive, serious candidate.

  3. Middle of the Road says:

    The motivation for the article yesterday in the Denver Post, where Miklosi and Welchert both claimed Shaffer was too “honorable” to consider moving to a district he doesn’t live in to run for office, suddenly becomes clearer to me now.

    Miklosi’s campaign knew they had dismal 4Q numbers which only serves to motivate the DCCC to find a viable alternative to both him and Haney.  

    And it was a pretty weak effort at reverse psychology considering Miklosi doesn’t live in the district, either.  

  4. Craig says:

    By all accounts is isn’t because he isn’t trying.  He has big endorsements.  It couldn’t be because everyone except Pols knows that Coffman is going to be re-elected and it doesn’t matter what candidate the Dems put up.  This seat is for a later time, when Coffman tries to move on to bigger office or the district gets more Democratic or there’s a Democratic wave year.  Either could happen in the next 2, 4, 6, 8 or 10 years.  But, as I have said, it ain’t happening this year.

    • nancycronknancycronk says:

      CD6 is no longer a safe bet for Coffman. Aurora is a concentrated Dem area. The Obama campaign will be opening two offices there (last time, it was only one). Aurora GOTV will be everything in this race and for the Presidency. Mike Coffman no more represents the best interest of Aurorans than Michael Vick represents the best interests of dogs.

      Unless Gessler cheats and gets away with it, Coffman is retiring, regardless of who his opponent is in the end.

    • Half Glass FullHalf Glass Full says:

      But – as Colorado Pols pointed out – if the low contributions to Miklosi are based on the feeling that Coffman will likely keep the seat, how does Brandon Shaffer collect $300K for what is almost surely a losing cause in CD4?

      • nancycronknancycronk says:

        Imagine having a long series of Republicans in the Presidency (G-d forbid). Eventually, when you tell people, “It really is possible this time to oust the Bush dynasty (or insert your favorite monarch here)”, they would need some kind of proof. CD6 has suffered under Coffman and Tancredo etc., for a long, long time. Not so in CD4. They saw what was possible with a Markey win, and they know it is possible to do it again.

        Learned helplessness is a very real psychological phenomenon and it effects not only voter participation, but donor levels. My guess is Shaffer and Haney wouldn’t have done any better than Miklosi raising money in CD6.

        • BlueCat says:

          It’s correctly understanding the way things are. Coffman will not be defeated in 2012 because it’s really hard to beat an incumbent most consider OK with a no name non-targeted opponent. That goes triple when the no name is a name like “Miklosi”.  

          And don’t bring up “Obama”.  Presidentials aren’t low info races. Congressionals are. As of a week before the election day in 2008 and 2010, the most common answer when asking targeted Ds and Us in CD6 via phone bank whether they had  heard much about  Winter and Eng, respectively, was either never heard a thing, think I’ve heard the name but that’s about it or haven’t looked into it yet.

          I also know of a suburban City Council race ( ultimate low info and officially non-partisan to boot) in a predominantly GOP district where a D signed up with no intention of having time or money to spend campaigning  but did it for the hell of it since no one else was running.  Shortly after an R signed. pretty much all most knew was the R had an Asian name and the D had a common vanilla name.  Without really lifting a finger, vanilla won 3 to 1.

          People will have no clue what kind of name Miklosi is. With little awareness or info, When in doubt….  

      • RedGreenRedGreen says:

        was better before the final maps were known. If the 4th hadn’t been turned into a very Republican district — it was, after all, won by a Democrat the last time Obama was on the ballot — then Shaffer could have been a contender there. But sometimes it comes down to the candidate, not just the raw numbers of the district, and no one’s suggesting Miklosi’s a better fundraiser than Shaffer.

      • caroman says:

        I received several personal fundraising phone calls from Senator Shaffer and I live in CD 6.  Not a peep from Miklosi.  I finally gave a token amount to Miklosi to be part of the 13,000 donors.  But, I am very open to supporting a stronger candidate.

    • Jones Smith says:

      Pace outraises Miklosi 2:1 thus far, and both are basically young state reps., are ambitious, have been around a lot of campaigns, and are hard workers.

      That pretty much says all there needs to be said.

      Kudos for Miklosi for rolling the dice and putting together 6 figures in the 3rd Quarter when he didn’t even have a district. It was gutsy and he deserves props for that. But it’s pretty clear major donors don’t see him as a credible candidate.  

      • nancycronknancycronk says:

        Donors large and small are not confident of the strategy to win. Granted, that is the candidate and his manager’s responsibility to communicate to the voting public, but the lack of funding historically in CD6 is what has fueled the hesitation. All CD6 needs is for the state and national party to believe in our candidate.

        We already do.

  5. OrangeFreeOrangeFree says:

    Average Joe needs a poll that either has him up by a few points or down by a few points, like, right now if he has any hope of salvaging this thing.

    So long DCCC support. How many calls do you think got placed to Rhonda Fields or Morgan Carroll in the last hour?

  6. Libertad 2.0 says:

    Unless… can we combine Haney’s money and residency with Miklosi’s endorsements and legislative experience?

    No? Ok, we’re fucked.

    • Well, you know what happens when you assume, right?

      I can’t believe he is going to try and win and doesn’t live here.

      One interesting note is that I received a mailing from Haney but have heard nada from Miklosi.

        • nancycronknancycronk says:

          I opened mine because the race is on my radar, but the other three never did. I suspect most people are like them. It’s way too early for the average voter to care. Consider that mailing a waste.

        • But phone calls are cheap. 😉

          So are volunteers to make phone calls. Look, I’m not trying to knock Joe (or lift Haney up) I’m just stating what has happened. Until the mailer I never heard of Haney because, to be frank, I’ve been occupied with other things.

          But he could’ve sent me an email. I get them from everybody else and I know he has my email. If my email bounces, make a call (or have a volunteer do it).

          When I saw that Haney letter I realized right away that Joe’s infrastructure is lacking. I’m nobody important, believe me, but it’s telling when there is no communication by phone or email to ask to volunteer or support.

          Haney probably can’t win either, and I doubt he even knows the players in CD 6 – (that feels weird to say as CD 7 was always great to say) but at least Haney did something. Maybe it’s not fair to call a mass mailing “something,” but I value that outreach and thus far, I have received nothing from somebody who has my digits, and I have received something from someone that bought the voter list.

          If Joe wants to win (or anybody for that matter) they have to mobilize and get people excited and so far, the only thing I am excited for the Super Bowl!

          Go Broncos…oh, wait. Nevermind.

          • nancycronknancycronk says:

            Joe has been working like a dog making calls. No doubt his manager will read this, and demand more phone calls from their skeleton staff.

            I’ve observed some learned helplessness in CD6. We need to get the word out this race really is within our grasp this time — it’s not all a pipe dream like it was with Hank Eng and John Flerlage. What would really help CD6 Dems believe it is doable, is if national players would show they will help.  

            • And right now, Joe is not, to quote Charlie Sheen “Winning.” He is barely surviving.

              Nancy, I like what you do. I love your passion and I wish we all were as committed as you are so I don’t want to come off as argumentative.

              But the national players made up their mind when they saw those fundraising numbers. We know they are telling him no – or to be charitable – they are probably telling him that they will be involved when he shows he can win. (That’s what they told him last year, too).

              That’s what happens in politics. You know this better than I could.

              From the national players all the way down to state house chairs, none of them get involved until a candidate can show they are viable.

              Joe, unfortunately, has not shown that he can raise money.

              And if his skeleton staff can’t find time to make a call to someone who likes to take long walks that sometime involve knocking on doors (i.e., me) then it is even scarier to think that that staff will do when it comes time to take down Coffman.

              Can he turn it around? Sure, anything is possible.

              But with bad fundraising numbers like Joe’s, the national players are looking at other districts to pour money into.

              Joe has been running for Congress ever since before he worked at Progressive Majority. He has been building connections to donors and volunteers.

              If he can’t show he can win by now, it’s probably too late.

              I suppose it is ironic that the man who taught candidate’s how to run campaigns is doing so poorly in his own congressional campaign.

              Anyway, Nancy, keep on keeping on.  

              • nancycronknancycronk says:

                but he never mentions Progressive Majority in this race. The word “progressive” does not play well in Barney purple districts.

                Here’s the situation: big donors live in old CD6. They don’t understand how the numbers have changed, and they continue to be tight-fisted when it comes to CD6. Aurora, the new area to be in CD6, is a goldmine of inconsistently voting Dems, many with minority status, and few can afford to donate much. The task here is to get the wealthy folks in Greenwood Village and Centennial to understand Aurora is our golden ticket to getting rid of Coffman. With OFA opening two offices in Aurora, in addition to the eggmendment and marijuana initiative, our potential for GOTV makes CD6 very winnable.

                But how do we get that message out there? Joe’s manager should be asking every other member of Congress to be helping get the word out to big donors and hosting fundraisers for CD6.

                For Coffman– he’s just doing more of the same, taking handouts from corporate interests.

                • RedGreenRedGreen says:

                  Really? Have you read his FEC report? Compare the number of donors from regular folks in Aurora with Miklosi’s report. Nancy, your loyalty is impressive, but you’ve got tunnel vision here.

                  • nancycronknancycronk says:

                     but that doesn’t mean they’re “regular folks”, or that they’re all impressed with his ability. The only thing regular about Coffman is his residency in Washington. Many of Coffman’s base are corporate execs who live in Greenwood Village and Highlands Ranch.

                    A  base of “regular folks” in Aurora? Hahahahahaha,…. LMAO RG.

                • Colorado PolsColorado Pols says:

                  No Democrat is going to get big money from big donors that live IN the district, because those people are largely Republicans. Big donors for Joe have to come nationally.

                  • nancycronknancycronk says:

                    There are some big donors there. Maybe not many, but a few.

                    I think as highly of Brandon Shaffer as I do of Joe Miklosi. I just want the national party folks to be careful before they bring in a carpet-bagger, no matter who he/she is (even if it were Morgan Carroll — you know I am one of her biggest cheerleaders, too). I am not confident the problem is Joe. I think the problem is everyone is waiting for someone else to start putting money into this race. No one wants to be the first one.

                    Joe just got his first financial director last week. He probably should have hired him first. I would like to give him a chance.

  7. TheDeminator says:

    A break down on Joe M’s Numbers

    79451.20 from individuals this quarter

    25000.00 from Pacs this quarter

    162490.77 from individuals Overall

    71500.00 from PAC’s overall

    Overall he has raised 30.55% of his money from PACS.  He needed to do way better to even come close to attract national donor’s interest in the campaign.

    http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b

  8. TheDeminator says:

    Does Joe bow out and run for the state house again?  He cannot beat Coffman with those fundraising numbers.  

    • RedGreenRedGreen says:

      If he hasn’t, there’s still time to try to keep his old seat.  

      • nancycronknancycronk says:

        We’ve got a great candidate for CD6. All he needs is big donors to believe in him. Big donors refuse to believe in him until he raises big money.

        No wonder people lost their faith in politics and politicians.

        • BlueCat says:

          In a situation like this, a candidate like Miklosi is a no-hoper.  Sorry. We need a genuine superstar, super well liked and high name rec candidate, and/or a dead girl or live boy scout to show up in Coffman’s bed or at least a freezer full of ill gotten gains to show up in his basement.  In the absence of any of the above, no wonder big donors are taking a pass. There will now, due to redistricting , be better ops coming but not this time. Been there.  Done that.

  9. Automaticftp says:

    to run.  Then again, maybe Joe just wants to take one for the team this year?

  10. … but Mike Coffman looks pretty good in the 6th CD, whether Brandon Shaffer gets into the race or not.

    Coffman still has the strong GOP base along the C-470 corridor, has lived in Aurora for the last 46 years, and won the new 6th CD — while running for SoS — when he was bucking the Democratic sweep in 2006.  He picks up a lot of military and ex-military voters in the new 6th CD.  He is definitely a well known and well liked commodity in Arapahoe County.  

    Frankly, the two candidates that folks in the new 6th CD have already formed their opinions about are Barack Obama and Mike Coffman.  I don’t know about the president, but it’s a safe bet that most people like Coffman.  Relinquishing political power twice to answer his country’s call to arms is a pretty compelling story anywhere.  

    Coffman is also a tenacious campaigner.  Supporters from South Jeffco, Douglas, and Elbert counties are willing to donate time, effort, and money, since they figure their respective CD races to be foregone conclusions.  I doubt any of the three Democratic hopefuls inspire that kind of loyalty.

    (I must admit that I’ve come to truly respect Nancy Cronk though.  She is passionate about her candidate and her party.  I admire that.)

    Big money Dems are more concerned with funding Obama’s Colorado effort, Sal Pace in the 3rd CD, and… unexpectedly… Ed Perlmutter in the 7th CD.  Perlmutter is going to need help against a self-funded candidate with a high profile name.  Voting against the Balanced Budget Amendment could come back to haunt Perlmutter now.

    Miklosi can’t raise the necessary funds.  Haney is expected to fund his own campaign, and it remains to be seen how much of his own money he is willing to spend.  Shaffer, being from Longmont, is a true carpetbagger.  He will be a tough sell to non-political junkies in the new 6th CD.  

    None of this adds up to a Democratic victory in the 6th CD this November.

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