My perception is that many of the single issue R donors have targeted Colorado because it was – at least some commentators here seem to believe – a conservative leaning state where their ideas would be enacted into law. If Ritter is looking like a walk over and the Senate and House are called D, does that mean the 527s pack up and move to Idaho or Utah? Does anyone see that as likely for THIS election? Most the big money I know gives to perceived winning sides or, in single issue cases, places where control to pursue the specific agenda is possible. Is some of the dead right commentary in Colorado getting shriller because there is a possibility that sugar daddy may go find a new date?
At the federal level, I don’t see that happening. MM or TT’s seats are just as important as a NY D, so I expect the money to fight those fights will continue. But at the state level, if the Ds are likely to hold serve again AND get Bill Ritter, I see the justification for big money for a minority seat as being a lot different case – especially as there are a LOT more important races (e.g.,Rick Sanotrum) that didn’t require a lot of funding in the past. Will the 527 money that has been the centerpiece of Colorado state level politics become less plentiful this year on the right?
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Federal Republican dollars are certainly going to Rick O’Donnell, who’s received donation dinners by Dick Cheney (twice), Bush, and several Cabinet members already. And the Republican Governor’s Association, which appears to also be headed for a minority this year, has dumped $500,000 into the Trailhead Group to help elect Beauprez.
But it’s my sense that Republican dollars are going to be stretched pretty thin this year. Several states have TABOR initiatives on the ballot – along with some funding scandals that look like II’s secret donor problems times 10. There are, I think, 11 states with anti-gay initiatives this year. And South Dakota’s got an initiative to repeal the all-out abortion ban passed this year. All of these will take funding by GOP donors. The NSCC is pulling a lot of support out of various states and putting that support into Rhode Island to protect moderate Lincoln Chaffee against a wingnut primary opponent who has zero chance in the general; this, too, is wasting money that hasn’t been flowing so well this year.
My guess is, some Republican donors are already looking to regroup for ’08. Some are just depressed at the lack of solid direction by current Republican officeholders. And the rest are so spread out that their effectiveness is going to be dminished this year; they’ll almost have to withdraw to states where they think they can make the biggest difference. Beauprez is not doing much to instill confidence that Colorado is one of those places. Tipton hasn’t been helping much, either.