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August 02, 2006 01:45 AM UTC

New Poll Shows Perlmutter with Big Lead

  • 66 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

The Rocky Mountain News reports that a new poll to be released soon shows that Democrat Ed Perlmutter has a huge lead over Peggy Lamm and Herb Rubenstein heading into next week’s CD-7 primary.

According to the campaign, the Survey USA poll of likely Democratic voters in the suburban Denver district found the following amount of support for each Democratic candidate:

Perlmutter … 51 percent
Peggy Lamm … 31 percent
Herb Rubenstein … 10 percent
Undecided … 8 percent

Campaign spokesman Scott Chase said the survey asked respondents if they were Democrats and if they were likely to vote in the 7th district primary on Aug. 8. Those who answered “yes” to both questions were asked, “Who are you supporting?”

This is obviously good news for Perlmutter, but it’s hard to believe that any candidate would have a 20-point lead at this point in the race.

Comments

66 thoughts on “New Poll Shows Perlmutter with Big Lead

  1. I was polled last night on this race.  Not sure by whom, but it was obviously a Democratic-push poll.  Questions like “I’m going to tell you some statements that have been made about Rick O’Donnell that some have said are good reasons to vote against him, tell me if you think they are very good reasons, good reasons, not so good reasons”.  I doubt it was this one as the timing is too short.

    1. If the Rocky is releasing this — then it’s solid.  DP Mason-Dixon surveys are heavy on name ID, but Rocky ones are usually pretty representative.  I forget who does them, though. 

        1. I didn’t get any questions at all about O’Donnell, but that might have been because I said I was a Dem who was almost certain to vote in the primary.

          The asked me a bunch of demographic questions, and the head to head question on the Dem primary side.

          They asked the candidates in alphabetical order, not ballot order, and it was a “press 1 for… press 2 for…” type of automated poll.

    2. the poll asked, it confirms that 1.  Colorado Pols and most of the posters on here (barring maybe Phoenix and sometimes Dan Willis) have any idea of what they’re talking about and 2.  Lamm supporters must have sensed the sinking ship early on and up’d the nastiness.  This has been worse than the Miles Salazar primary – much more caustic and hysterical.  Hopefully everyone will get behind Perlmutter and help win the seat.

      1. I want you to promise to never post again. To be that sure that Perlmutter is going to win, and that Peggy needs to just pack it in, I want your gaurantee.

        Are you willing to do that based on a survey usa poll?

        1. Unlike most politicians, I don’t make promises I can’t keep, so no, I can’t promise to never post here again.  I’ll come here and hack it up with the best of ’em.

          I can however guarantee that if Lamm somehow pulls it off, I will support her – volunteer to phone bank, walk, deliver yard signs, whatever she and Jim Merlino need  – to make sure the seat switches hands.  I don’t think most of the Lamm supporters on this site can make the same guarantee about Perlmutter.

          1. sssssjjjeff.

            I have never failed to come back and support the Dem nominee in a hard fought primary contest and that will not change here.  I would even support Herb if he won.

            But I also agree, a good chunk of the Lamm posters to this blog will not.  Not all of them, though, there are some good dems who will even though they supported Peggy.

            As I posted some weeks ago, I am supporting Ed despite the fact that he and I have not always seen eye to eye, and he has been wrong on some issues that I have lobbied, but he was a straight shooter, always told me why he could not support my issue and that was good enough for me.

            Frankly, he has been maligned beyond any semblance of reality.  I have heard the lies from the other camp and know them to be lies first hand because most of the accusations are related to issues I have first-hand knowledge of.  So when I hear the lie, I know it to be a lie, because I was there.

            Too many years around the legislature to not know BS when I hear or see.

            1. If you are so sure, give me names? That is a pretty intense charactor judgement buddy. So are you sure about that? if yes, who? Or was that just a load of BS and you don’t actually know anything about any of them?

  2. Holly Cow. 

    I was really starting to like Peggy Lamm.

    But if this is even close to accurate, she’s toast. 

    In spite of a great hit ad (the black-and-white one) and a perceived strong staff, Ed might just pull this one off.

    And that’s a shame, because I really didn’t like his ads.  That one with the daughters was too much like DeMint and Thune pieces from ’04.  He just seemed to lack any originality at all.

    1. Look towards the poll that shows Lamm as being the most likely to beat Rick O’Donnell.  I know as a Democrat I want to make sure we win this seat and I think the voters understand we need to nominate the most likely candidate to do just that.

      1. Is that like the poll that showed Peggy with a huge lead??  Don’t think so.  O’Donnell is toast anyway what with the Social Security BS.  Doesn’t matter who the Dem candidate is.  Even Herb could beat O’Donnell.

      2. as the “likely Democratic voters” that were just polled in this latest poll?

        Seems they have picked who they think can beat O’Donnell and it ain’t Peggy.

    2. I’m sure that’s exactly what the average primary voter is thinking:

      “hmm, I like Perlmutter but his ads seem to lack originality”

      WHAT!?!?!

      Nobody knows that the copies are similair to other out of state candidates except dorks who blog at one in the morning. . .

  3. They do regular polling of all 50 states; if they show such a huge lead, it’s probably trouble for Peggy Lamm.

    OTOH, EMILY’s List just released a poll showing Peggy with a slim lead and 21% undecided voters.  Their numbers still trended towards Ed, though due to name recognition differences.

    1. I think they held it to try to generate a he-said she-said on this, but if you look at the dates on the EMILY poll, it was taken over a month ago.

      Also, a poll by an non-polling org that has an endorsement in the race is not as convincing to me as an independent poll.

      The real question is if Ed’s lead will suppress Get Out The Vote efforts. If I was Peggy, I would know that the fundraising portion of the race was done, and now is he chance to try to manage expectations. If she makes it sound like Ed is Goliath then any result for her might make her look like David.

      It is about who shows up now, and Peggy needs to find a way to catch Ed sleeping.

  4. This is obviously not an accurate poll.  Everyone knows that Survey USA’s polls are historically inaccurate.  The last poll brought out by 9-News was disputed heavily by the Perlmutter camp for inaccuracy.  I’m sure the numbers here are nowhere near to what we’ll see on election day.  And Herb with 10 percent?  Get real…

    1. Actually, SurveyUSA has been shown based upon past polling to be one of the most accurate polls.  The dispute with the last poll was that they didn’t only ask Democrats and they didn’t ask how likely the voter was to vote in the August 8 primary.  This poll asked both those things.

      Ultimately, the only poll that matters is on August 8 and we’re about to see that one.  But, I’ll be in the backwoods of Maryland so won’t see it so have fun.

      1. On this very site not too long ago:

        “Ed Perlmutter’s campaign for CD-7 is long past sounding ridiculous over their incessant cries about polling, but now they are entering more dangerous territory: They’re starting to look silly and feeble. Perlmutter’s camp is actively disputing the validity of the 9News/Survey USA poll released last week that showed fellow Democrat Peggy Lamm with better name ID than Perlmutter. This comes after months of complaints about a Ridder/Braden poll (which we didn’t believe, either) and a Celinda Lake poll that may or may not have existed (both of which also showed Lamm ahead).”

      2. Survey USA’s polling on primaries has been highly suspect. 

        Good example is the Mayor’s race in San Jose earlier this summer. 

        They did a poll that was released 4 days before the primary showing the following:  Chavez 25% — Cortese 18% — Pandori 17% — Reed 14% — Mulcahy 12% — other/undecided 14%

        What actually happened four days after the poll was released?

        Reed, who the poll showed at 14 percent, took 29 percent and won the primary.

        1. I don’t know anything about SurveyUSA or 9News’ track record. So I retract the endorsement. I thought it was the Rocky’s survey.

  5. Rubenstein told 9NEWS, “We believe we have strong support from both Dems and Independents who will be voting in the election and the independents were under represented in the poll.”

    (from 9News.com)

    Someone needs to inform Herb that only registered Democrats are allowed to vote in the primary.  Not sure where he’s getting this bit about Independents…

    1. Unaffiliated voters (as they are called in Colorado) can indeed vote in the Dem primary. They can affiliate with the Dem party (or the GOP if they choose) on election day and then vote in that party’s primary.

      1. If an Independent registers as a Dem in order to vote in the primary (and I agree with you it’s allowed, I wasn’t questioning that) then how does Ed knows who and how many are Indies?  In the primary, they’re ALL Democrats.

        1. If he is running his campaign right he is targeting those current U’s and watching for them to turn up at the polls. His poll watchers will be able to determine if they have “gone Dem” or not. There is also a process to monitor absentee and early voters this way.

          1. Given the recent turnout expectations of 15% (plus/minus ?) I seriously doubt if any primary candidate is going to glean much useful information from the few Indies that might actually switch their affiliations in this primary.

            1. like Rubenstiein’s, I would be targeting the U’s and getting them to the polls. That of course would be in addition to the more traditional GOTV targeting of the Dems.

              And the 15% was a statewide average and based on the fact there is not much going on this primary unless you live in certain districts, like CD7. It would not surprise me to see turn out as high as 40% on the Dem side in CD7 and the same amount on the GOP side in CD5.

              1. … but for the fact that Herb is a (distant, IMO) dark horse in the race, which has me wondering if he’s got the resources to determine all this. 

                Further, I agree with you about the strategy of getting the INDIES (not the Undecideds) to the polls… if he knows who among the Indies have changed their affiliation.  My point is based on my doubts that many of them have.  Sure, it’s highly likely that the turnout will be much higher in hotly contested campaigns, but let’s remember that this is a primary.  I just don’t see it very likely that:

                1) there are that many folks paying attention; 
                2) there are that many Indies changing affiliation to DEM;

                Those two coupled provide enough to make much of a difference to Herb.

              2. … but for the fact that Herb is a (distant, IMO) dark horse in the race, which has me wondering if he’s got the resources to determine all this. 

                Further, I agree with you about the strategy of getting the INDIES (not the Undecideds) to the polls… if he knows who among the Indies have changed their affiliation.  My point is based on my doubts that many of them have.  Sure, it’s highly likely that the turnout will be much higher in hotly contested campaigns, but let’s remember that this is a primary.  I just don’t see it very likely that:

                1) there are that many folks paying attention; 
                2) there are that many Indies changing affiliation to DEM;

                Those two coupled provide enough to make much of a difference to Herb.  As I see this race, Herb increasing his vote total is only going to hurt Lamm;  or at least Herb will hurt Lamm more than Herb will hurt Ed.

      2. While unaffiliated voters may elect to join a party on primary day and vote in that party’s primary, very, very few actually do so.  I hope that none of the three contestants in C.D. 7 is counting on unaffiliateds carrying him or her across the finish line cause it aint gonna happen.

  6. … to a “How could Perlmutter have won?  Everyone I know voted for Lamm!” moment in this primary. 

    (anyone old enough to remember Nixon’s landslide vs. McGovern in ’72 will know what that syndrome’s all about)

  7. Every piece of polling information that has been released to date or even 2nd-handedly talked about, puts Lamm ahead in a very close race. It would not have concerned me so much if this poll had Perlmutter ahead and the margin was small, but the extreme difference causes me to question this one.

    1. … ALL of the prior (and some fabled?) polls questioned the respondents as to “favorability” and “name recognition”.

      TakeBack has already pointed out that EMILY’s List poll is about as biased as it gets, given that they have a horse in the race.

      This particular poll gets right to the heart of it:  “Who do you support in the primary?”  And note, too, that with just a week to go to primary day, that there are only 8% undecided.  I don’t see that as being suspicious. 

  8. Has a date been released as to when the 9News/SUSA poll was taken? 9News states that the poll asked “…who [CD7 residents] would vote for if the Democratic primary was held Tuesday,” which makes me assume the poll was taken within the last few days.

    I wonder if Peggy knew that this was coming and waited a whole month before releasing her Emily’s List poll to keep things looking like they are close…

      1. IF you look at Square State, there is a link to the poll itself which shows that the poll was taken July 29-31.  Is that recent enough for you guys?

  9. and waiting until a poll that specifically asks Likely Democratic Primary Voters who they intend to cast their ballots for.  Not polling name ID and not favorability from a general sample of all CO-7 residents – but people who are actually going to be voting in this election. 

    Nobody from Perlmutter’s team ever questioned the accuracy of the previous polls themselves.  They simply said that broad name ID and favorability polling across the entire district from both parties was not a very accurate indicator of which candidate was stronger with likely voters.

    Peggy and Merlino took a desperate shot with the last commercial.  Okay guys, yep, you got it right, Ed is a huge fan of rapists and sex offenders – busted!  Do you really think the small percentage of undecided voters will really buy that garbage?  Ed’s got three daughters and a record of serious anti-crime and victim’s rights legislation, get real.  That’s  good ol’ fashioned GOP-style swift-boating right there.  Democrats shouldn’t do that to each other. 

    So . . . A reputable poll shows that Ed is very strong with likely voters, his friend Mark Udall has come out to support him, as well as Sarah Brady and the Brady Campaign (largest and most successful sensible gun law group around), and Peggy is pumping out the most negative and misleading media of this entire primary.  Things are looking pretty good.

    Whatever happened to that DoubleDigits pro-Lamm poster?  That guy loved to talk about polls . . .

    1. Perlmutter’s campaign manager questioned a Survey USA/9News poll that showed Lamm leading. This is from The Hill:

      “Although primary voters may pay little attention until July, candidates believe, poll standing is crucial to attracting money for when the campaign hits high gear next month. Danielle Radovich Piper, Perlmutter’s campaign manager, complained when The Hill reported during a Perlmutter fundraising trip to Washington that Lamm was considered the front-runner on the basis of two polls Perlmutter disputed…

      … Perlmutter’s campaign disputes Survey USA’s methodology, contending that the pollster did not identify Republican and Democratic affiliations or limit the survey to likely voters

      .”

        1. …it’s a question like “how likely are you to vote in the primary next week?”  If it’s very or likely, you’re a LV.  Some polls go to the expense of asking only RVs first if they are LVs, which also cuts down on the error.

        2. Some polls ask:
          *Did you vote in 2004 general election?
          *Did you vote in the primary in 2004?
          *Did you vote in 2002?

          Or something like that.  If you keep saying yes, you’re an LV.  (They can also get that data from the SoS, so they don’t have to ask the question – if they know which member of the household they’re talking to, that is…)

      1. The Perlmutter campaign complained about the methodology of the previous poll because it didn’t separate out Democratic voters and it didn’t separate out most likely voters.  Logical and right.  Of course, Perlmutter likes this poll because it shows him ahead, but also note that this poll did separate out Democratic voters and did separate out most likely to vote.  See the methodology as shown in the poll itself which can be found on the link to the Survey USA poll and cross-tabs on the Square State site.

  10. Where’s the fair haired, blue smoke and mirrors, advance man when you need his spin.  Wait, maybe Peggy will fire him tomorrow morning and get another bump in the polls.  Oh, well 20 points down, six days to go and more then 40% plus of the vote already in, she’s toast! See ya Jimmy boy!

    1. Lamm’s campaign was a sinking ship before Merlino came on board.  The fundraising has skyrocketed under Merlino and their message has been strong.  I still think Peggy can win this race and it’s more because of what Merlino’s done than anyone before him…

  11. Voters are tired of polls; they all seem to start out with an agenda. If the pollsters were out talking to the average voter like I am, they would know that Herb is the only real candidate in the CD7 primary.  He has solid position papers on the key issues, doesn’t duck questions, and is running a positive campaign, unlike the other two.  Let’s see what people really think about the candidates in this race, and not listen to the political pundits who try to spin things the way that they want it to be.  We already have way too much of that in Washington.

  12. The crosstabs are up here, and FWIW, here’s my take on them:

    In the poll, the demographic breakdown of voters was:
      -Split 50/50 male/female

      -Age split:
      18-34: 27%
      35-49: 30%
      50-64: 28%
      65+: 16%

      -Income:
      Under 40K: 22%
      $40K-79K:43%
      $80K+: 29%

    I haven’t done the research myself, but I’ve heard that primary voters are 58% female and 66% over age 55.

    So the poll is a little off on the target voters.

    And my guess is that CD7 isn’t 30% wealthy, so I’m guessing the richer parts of Jeffco (ie Ed’s old Senate district) are a little over-represented.  But that’s just a guess.

    So after more thought my analysis is the same as my knee-jerk reaction:

    This race is neck-and-neck.  Polls are certainly interesting, but this race is close.

    1. A reputable poll is a joke.

      Why believe the last minute polling that doesn’t even screen for likely voters when there have been SEVERAL polls that say Lamm’s ahead?

      Perlmutter’s in a tailspin–that’s why he’s pulling out all the stops: getting Udall to endorse, and sputtering while trying to defend his record on rape.

      Sure, he has three daughters. Nobody can dispute that. But can he be trusted to vote the right way when our backs are turned?  Apparently not.

      1. Thanks for showing up Lamm apologist.  It’s about time.  You sound as much like a Republican as your boss.  When the facts say otherwise, just ignore the facts.  Really, I guess you’ve been learning at the feet of your hero Governor Owens.

        1. But explain the rape vote? One of THREE!

          I’m just being practical–polling all along has shown that Ed can’t beat Ricky in the general. Peggy’s the only feasible option.

    2. Looking at this data causes me to the question this poll. It shows females preferring Perlmutter over Lamm by large numbers in every age group. This simply does not ring true to me.

      It also shows younger people preferring Ed over Peggy which also rings hollow.

      It will be very interesting to compare these numbers to the vote result next week. I expect it will be a lot closer than this poll shows.

    3. 27% 18-34 is seriously laughable.  When has there been 27% “youth” turnout in any election, let alone a primary?  And 16% 65+ is absurd.  Who here honestly believes that on 8/8 when the numbers are tallied (both on a percentage and raw number basis) that more people 18-34 will have voted in the primary than people 65 and over?  No one can accept this poll with a straight face.  I thought SUSA was a reputable polling outfit, but this thing is just not credible.  Finally, 29% of those polled maky $80k or more a year!?  That’s hardly representative of the district’s socio-economic breakdown. 

      Like others have said, if this poll had Ed up by 2 or 3 points, everyone would be saying “oohh close race, Ed’s ads must have been effective.”  But this poll is wholly dismissable.  It might as well have been conducted by a bunch of high school freshman as a show of hands of those whose parents are voting for Ed, Peggy, or Herb.

      Hopefully the spinmeisters on this site will fess up that reality and this poll cannot co-exist.

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