Morning Consult: Biden Up By 13, Hick Up By 6

Sen. Cory Gardner and John Hickenlooper.

As the Denver Post’s Justin Wingerter reports:

The latest poll in Colorado’s U.S. Senate contest shows a tightening race, with Democratic candidate John Hickenlooper ahead of Republican Sen. Cory Gardner by six percentage points.

The Morning Consult survey of more than 600 likely Colorado voters shows less of a contest in the presidential race. Democrat Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 13 percentage points, 52% to 39%, in the Centennial State.

Polls dating back to last year have consistently shown Hickenlooper, a former governor, with a double-digit lead over Gardner. Tuesday’s poll shows a much narrower contest between the two political heavyweights with 98 days to go. Hickenlooper received 48% of support to Gardner’s 42% in the poll…

Although this poll does indicate a somewhat closer race that most other polls of Colorado’s U.S. Senate race up to now, it’s not really accurate to claim that Morning Consult or any other individual pollster shows a “tightening race” until a second poll with consistent methodology establishes that trend. Tightening observed in other polls with prior results to compare to would bolster the argument, but that hasn’t happened yet. Otherwise you could just as easily say that Gardner is losing ground from a poll in 2015 that showed him doing well…but that would be silly.

Until then, what we have is another poll showing the Republican incumbent down by a substantial margin, with less than 100 days before the election. In the absence of corroboration this poll is an outlier in Cory Gardner’s favor, and he’s still losing.

The poll also has plenty of good news for Hickenlooper. Not only does he lead the incumbent Gardner as July comes to a close, but unaffiliated voters who were polled favor Hickenlooper over Gardner by 13 percentage points, 48% to 35%.

In the very difficult situation Gardner is in today, anything that can be even remotely construed as good news is going to be hyped relentlessly by the GOP as evidence of shifting momentum. But the dynamics of this race have not changed: an incumbent running in a state that has “walked away” from Gardner’s party and political agenda in every election since Gardner narrowly won, holding on tightly to the coattails of a President loathed by the voters Gardner somehow must persuade to split their vote.

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  1. Early WormEarly Worm says:

    The good news in this poll for Gardner – there appears to be some daylight between him and Trump. There may be voters that will split their ballots, Biden/Gardner. The bad news for Gardner – he can expect 98 days of messaging from the Dems wrapping Trump around his neck like the leaden anchor that Trump truly is.

    • JohnInDenverJohnInDenver says:

      If I remember correctly, Gardner won in 2014 by 2%, Trump lost in 2016 by 5%.  That "distance" in results continues to this poll.

      My amateur guess?  If Trump were not so personally repellent, he could be right there with Cory.  if only he could avoid

       * being mean & attacking people;

       * making loud announcements of divisive positions where he's on the minority side;

       * being absolutely (and loudly) useless in finding some sort of deal to be made; and

       * revealing a personal history with 3 wives, numerous mistresses, paid liaisons, assaults on numerous women, creepiness of invading teen beauty pageant dressing rooms. and talking about dating one of his daughters.

      Resembling the worst boyfriend or husband or boss in a woman's life is NOT the way to their hearts or onto their ballots.

  2. 2Jung2Die2Jung2Die says:

    At this point, I'd say Gardner's team, including NRSC, has been more effective in TV advertising and that might be part of the reason his polling gap is narrower than Biden's. Not saying what they're doing is ethical or that I like what they're saying, just that they're landing punches and branding Gardner as some sort of savior of the economy, when Hick oughta be winning this battle in particular for his role in Colorado's post-2010 economic recovery. Health care's a gigantic issue but it won't keep you from getting evicted and you can't eat it.

    • Conserv. Head Banger says:

      "….Gardner's team…..has been more effective in TV advertising…."

      I'll agree. Have seen Cory's smiling face in two outdoors oriented ads thus far; for the Great American Outdoors Act and one for "saving" the Land & Water Conservation Fund. I'll give Cory credit for his work on LWCF. But he also claims that Congress" stole the money for years." Wonder how many times, in the House or Senate, Cory voted for that "stealing."

      For now, Hick seems behind in the TV ads game. Wonder if Hick has some of the same "brilliant geniuses" who ran Mark Udall's campaign in 2014?

      • JohnInDenverJohnInDenver says:

        Being ahead in the polls but behind in the cash on hand, my guess is Hick is a bit slow on going up with advertising, especially television ads. 

        • 2Jung2Die2Jung2Die says:

          I suspect you're right, but they ought not to dilly nor dally much longer.

        • Gilpin Guy says:

          This seems like a sequel to "Romanoff is gaining on Hickenlooper.  He has a real chance to beat him".

          Gardner still has Trump as an anvil around his nuts and has done nothing along with his fellow Republican senators to address the most basic needs (shelter, food & a job) of 30 million people.  At some point Gardner is going to have to declare his loyalty to Trump and the rich or else the Trumpers (formerly known as Republicans) will go ballistic.  He might be gaining with mud but the guy won't own a clean shirt by election day.  Trump is going to continue to do stupid shit that Gardner will have to defend.  Not an easy path for someone who is already behind.

  3. RepealAndReplace says:

    I would say that those TV commercials about Hick being busted by the so-called independent ethics commission are having their planned effect. Expect the RNSC to double down on them.

     

  4. Meiner49erMeiner49er says:

    It's insider baseball now until mid-August when voters start to wake up. When they do, I suspect Hick will use his big cash advantage to hit those leaning toward Cory but not yet committed with a cold shower and a big Cup a Joe. The daylight will get a lot wider.

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