As “The Fix” reports yesterday, Democrats across the country are suffering the fallout from a weak top-of-the-ticket showing:
Rick Snyder may be House Democrats’ biggest nightmare.
The Michigan Republican, a former head of the Gateway computer company, is running way ahead of Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) in the Wolverine State’s gubernatorial race. (A poll released Sunday gave him a 20-point advantage.) Such a wide margin for Snyder creates the potential for a down-ballot sweep that could wash out Democrats’ chances in two hotly contested House districts…
…With Snyder leading Bernero by such a wide margin, there is considerable concern among Democratic strategists that a poor performance at the top of the ticket could make just enough difference to sway the 1st District and 7th District races against them.
The situation in Michigan is the most extreme – but far from the only – example of how Democratic struggles at the top of the ticket could well cost the party a handful of congressional contests on Nov. 2.
“Getting tied to an unpopular ticket hurts with swing voters, but it also makes it even harder to rally your base and get them to turn out,” said one Democratic consultant who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the problem candidly…
…In close races – and there will be lots of them at the House level in 22 days’ time – a few hundred votes can make all the difference. And that’s where a stronger-than-expected (or weaker-than-expected) than expected showing at the top of the ticket will matter – in a major way.
There’s no mention of Colorado in this article, but Republicans stand to face the same problems with the, uh, less-than-venerable Dan Maes as the GOP candidate for governor. We’ve been saying this since even before Maes’s primary victory in August, when it became clear that the Republican Governor’s Association would not be playing in Colorado.
As we’ve also said, this is why ballot-chasing and GOTV efforts will be so critical to many other top races. For example, Cory Gardner’s campaign in CD-4 needs to find those Republican voters — who might have lost interest in casting their ballot after watching Maes flounder around for months — and make sure they still decide to vote for him. But without RGA money in Colorado, there are fewer resources available for exactly those ballot-chase and GOTV efforts that many Republicans candidates rely upon. That’s the dangerous doubly-doozy you get with a disaster of a gubernatorial candidate like Dan Maes.