Rasmussen Gubernatorial Poll Shows Demoralized Partisans, Hick on Top

GOP-leaning pollster Rasmussen Reports’ poll of the Colorado gubernatorial race today:

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters finds Democrat John Hickenlooper, the mayor of Denver, with 36% support. Republican Dan Maes captures 24% of the vote while Tom Tancredo trails with 14%. Support for both Hickenlooper and Maes is down seven percentage points from two weeks ago while Tancredo’s support is down four points.

Six percent (6%) of Colorado voters prefer some other candidate and twenty percent (20%) are undecided. The undecideds are up fifteen points from earlier in the month.  Twenty-four percent (24%) of Republicans are undecided along with 14% of Democrats and 21% of unaffiliated voters.

The prevalent feeling on this poll in most media is that “all three candidates” have “lost support,” and surficially that’s the case–Rasmussen’s poll two weeks ago had John Hickenlooper at 43%, Dan Maes at 31%, and Tom Tancredo at 18%, a consistent decline obviously more attributable to greater indecision among surveyed voters than it is any one candidate peeling support from another. Maes would really prefer to see those Tancredo supporters moving into his column instead of ‘undecided,’ but it’s reasonable to assume that few of those voters would ever support Hickenlooper. Hick, in turn, could be seeing signs of apathy from his own base in these poll results, as he arguably hasn’t done much to motivate core Democratic voters.

In both cases, you can spot dynamics at work pointing to undermotivated partisans: Hickenlooper’s base Democrats unenthusiastic about his centrist message, and Republicans with very little chance of a successful outcome regardless of who they choose–and who don’t know which way to turn.

But there is one big difference between the three candidates as polled here that you can’t miss or downplay. We’ve come back to it again and again, both in terms of gleaning useful information from early polls, and why Democrats aren’t worried about Hickenlooper in general: apathetic base or no.

Hickenlooper is viewed Very Favorably by 29% of voters in the state and Very Unfavorably by 18%.

For Maes, Very Favorables are 7% and Very Unfavorables are 17%.

Ten percent (10%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Tancredo, but 35% view him Very Unfavorably.

Hickenlooper’s durable likability is what most observers believe will carry him when few other factors are seemingly in his favor: despite furious attempts to link Hickenlooper to the slate of issues Republicans believe are lethal to Democrats, it’s just not sticking–and not merely because Hickenlooper is depriving them ammunition by running to the center. People resiliently like the guy, and as that affable image contrasts against the raging Tancredo and clueless Maes in the coming weeks, this race moves closer to what remains its basically inevitable conclusion.  

56 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Interlocken Loop says:

    The same GOP pollster who had Ryan Frazier with a one point lead has Hick in a landslide.


  2. koop says:

    But Caplis says that Hick is a radical leftist.  I’m so confused.

  3. dlof says:

    And the answer to “are you likely to vote in November” is coming back more often as a “yes,” from people who really haven’t been paying close attention.

    Given the polarized debate for the past year or so, this seems right to me.  A lot of people who have been intentionally tuning it out are starting to pay attention.

  4. TalkingCat says:

    It’s not likely that 3 weeks ago 5% of voters were undecided and now 20% are undecided. This looks more like a change in question wording than anything else, but Rasmussen won’t show us the actual question wording on their head to heads. It’s easy to claim that Rasmussen is Republican leaning, but this is really just another example of questionable polling methodology.  

  5. MADCO says:

    there will be an exodus that sets Colorado back a generation or two.

    I guess the same could be said for 60 & 61.

    R’s: where can we move with lower taxes and better run gov’t?

    D’s: where can we move with more jobs, better funded schools a similar cost of living, climate and recreational friendly?

  6. bjwilson83 says:

    However, the high unfavorables on Tancredo will either convince him to drop out, or else no one will vote for him. And the conclusion is far from inevitable; a large number of voters are undecided (even if they have a nominal preference at this point) and a lot of it will come down to the debates. Maes will probably do at least as well as the Looper in them – he’s a likeable guy. That, combined with the prevailing anti-incumbent wave could still put Maes over the top.

  7. Half Glass Full says:

    I love it. Yet Tancredo has the gall to say he’s more electable. And his shill Peter Boyles is doing everything he can to destroy both Hickenlooper and Maes – apparently to little effect.

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