September 04, 2019 03:16 PM UTC

New Poll Numbers Underscore Johnston Senate Exit

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• by: Colorado Pols

As Ernest Luning reports for the publication formerly known as the Colorado Statesman, former Gov. John Hickenlooper remains the overwhelming favorite to capture the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in 2020:

John Hickenlooper would run away with the Democratic primary for Colorado’s U.S. Senate seat, with more than six times the support of other candidates, says a poll commissioned by a group that supports the former two-term governor.

The Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday found that Hickenlooper had the support of 60% of Democratic voters, followed by former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, with 9% support. None of the other candidates in the poll — including former state Sen. Mike Johnston, who exited the primary Tuesday — scored above 3% support, and 16% of respondents said they were undecided.

Yes, this PPP poll was conducted on behalf of a group that supports Hickenlooper for Senate.  Yes, you can probably argue about various aspects of how the poll was conducted and to what degree it is an accurate representation of Democratic voters in Colorado. But at some point, any naysayer must admit that the numbers for Hickenlooper are consistently very positive no matter the question, and no matter whether you measure his candidacy against other Democrats or against incumbent Republican Sen. Cory Gardner.

In this most recent poll, for example, 60% of respondents say they would support Hickenlooper’s candidacy and 65% say that Hick represents the Democrats’ best chance of defeating Gardner in 2020. Literally no other Democratic candidate makes it into double digits on either question. 

As Luning continues, the perception of Hickenlooper among different groups of Democratic voters is not as stark as opponents would like you to believe:

While Hickenlooper has been attacked by other Democrats for being insufficiently progressive — including by Romanoff and other primary competitors — the survey found his favorability is virtually identical among Democrats who consider themselves more moderate and those who consider themselves more progressive.

The poll shows that 71% of the moderates view Hickenlooper favorably, as do 72% of the progressives, with 16% in both groups holding an unfavorable opinion and 12% unsure.

In addition, 67% of Democrats surveyed said they think Hickenlooper has been “a progressive leader,” while 18% thought otherwise and 16% were unsure.

To nobody’s surprise, a majority of Democratic voters surveyed didn’t have enough familiarity with most of the other Democratic candidates in the Senate race. Only Andrew Romanoff (35% favorable/17% unfavorable/48% unsure) and Mike Johnston (26/10/65) were recognized enough for either to end up with a positive net favorability rating.

These numbers validate Johnston’s message from his announcement on Tuesday that he was departing the race for Senate. Hickenlooper is so well-known and so well-liked among average Democratic voters in Colorado that it would take a significant amount of money and negative messaging to move the needle enough to even be competitive in a June Primary.

It is what it is. No amount of consternation about Hickenlooper’s entry into the Senate race changes the basic math at play here.