Voters “Walk Away” From GOP Nationally, Locally

TFW Republicans realize it’s not getting better.

The Hill reports on new nationwide generic ballot numbers that show Democrats pulling away strongly from Republicans once again on the question to voters of which party should control Congress after the 2020 elections:

Democrats extended their lead over Republicans in a generic 2020 congressional ballot, according to a new poll.

The Economist/YouGov survey of registered voters found that 48 percent of respondents said they would vote Democratic next year, 37 percent would vote Republican and 11 percent were not sure.

The 11 point lead is up from an Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 21-23, when Democrats held a 7 point advantage over Republicans.

In their much-discussed survey of 500 likely voters in Colorado earlier in July (15-17), local Republican pollster Magellan Strategies found a similar wide margin of preference for Democrats to control Congress, in addition to President Donald Trump trailing the generic Democratic candidate by 12 points:

That is, a net 10-point Democratic preference in Colorado, right in line with the new YouGov numbers nationally and from several weeks ago. Historically speaking, these are very favorable numbers for Democrats even early in the election cycle. In June of 2017, national generic polling showed a seven point lead for Democrats, and was broadly interpreted as an early ominous sign for Republicans which proved accurate in the 2018 “Democratic wave.” Generic numbers have also accurately forecast losses for Democrats, both in 2010 and in 2014–years when Colorado Democrats lost their congressional delegation majority and state senate majority respectively.

Given that Republicans in 2018 were confidently predicting a “red wave” up until the historic “blue wave” crashed, don’t expect them to admit it. But if you’re thinking another Democratic landslide in 2020 is in the offing, maybe even bigger than 2018…these numbers back you up.


27 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. RepealAndReplace says:

    The walk away from the GOP is very encouraging but perhaps we should not overplay our good hand….


    • Soiled Blue Dress says:

      Ha! The libs aren't listening.

    • Mike W. says:

      …which is virtually identical to the share of Independents who think the Republican party is "just the right amount of Right." You know, this Republican party…

      I say Democrats shouldn’t listen to Republicans, if they call themselves Republicans or otherwise.

    • mamajama55 says:

      It’s all in how you write the headline, buddy… when you go to the cross tabs of that Hill/HarrisX poll, you find that more than half of Independent women of all ages find the Democratic Party to be “just about right” (44%) or “too far right” (14%)….why that’s….58% of independent women who like Dems as is, or wish they’d steer left a bit more, to 42% of Indy women who think Dems are “too far left”. 

      With men, the difference is even more pronounced- 60 -39% think Dems are about right, or too far right, as opposed to the 39% who think it’s too far left. 

      So the headline could have read “ More than half  of Independents like the Democratic Party, or wish it were more progressive.”

      Oh Gawd – now V will accuse me of “hectoring” you again. Oh well. He’s going to attack whatever I do, so I’ll just do what I like, which is argue and discuss politics. 

      • Voyageur says:

        There you go again, La Pomposa!  Everything, even a stastistical breakout of voters, is all about MJ!

        And hectoring is a great word, isn't it?  It fits you like an Armani suit.

  2. Soiled Blue Dress says:

    A lot can change between now and November of 2020. You'd better hope Rep. Omar's Muslim friends don't pull another 9/11!

  3. Early Worm says:

    The canary in this coal mine will be Republican congressional retirements. As it becomes clear that there is no hope of regaining a congressional majority, there will be a lot of Republicans heading for the exits. No one wants to be in the minority when they can spend more time with their families (or as a lobbyist).  

    • MichaelBowman says:

      Exhibit ‘A’ (for today). If they can’t be the Alpha Male they pick up their toys and go home: 

      Rep. Mike Conaway, who steered the House Agriculture Committee through passage of the 2018 farm bill, won't seek reelection in 2020 after eight terms serving a sprawling west Texas district dominated by oil, ranching and cotton.

  4. Voyageur says:

    Deleting dupe.

Leave a Reply

Comment from your Facebook account

You may comment with your Colorado Pols account above (click here to register), or via Facebook below.