15 thoughts on “Tuesday Open Thread”

1. Is it my imagination (cognitive bias) or is the Dunning-Kruger effect more common in American politics than it used to be?

   I'm not talking about Drew Westen, I'm talking Barnum and Bailey.

   Is there data?

    

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2. *rump is bored and in need of a new distraction — leaving his minions scrambling to keep up as usual.

   President Donald Trump said in a tweet Monday night that U.S. immigration agents are planning to make mass arrests starting “next week”

   U.S. officials with knowledge of the preparations have said in recent days that the operation was not imminent, and ICE officials said late Monday night that they were not aware that the president planned to divulge their enforcement plans on Twitter.

   Executing a large-scale operation of the type under discussion requires hundreds — and perhaps thousands — of U.S. agents and supporting law enforcement personnel, as well as weeks of intelligence gathering and planning to verify addresses and locations of individuals targeted for arrest.

    

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   1. The Center for Immigration Studies, a pro-deportation group, said it cost a bit over $10,000 per deportation in FY 2016.  So, there could be some hard choices between paying for deportations versus paying to confine asylum seekers.

      American Action Forum, a group skeptical of mass deportation, says "$100 billion to $300 billion would be spent on removing the entire current undocumented immigrant population from the United States."  Estimates of the size of the undocumented in the country are 10-12 million.  Trump is talking "deporting millions" — so perhaps "only" $10 billion for the first (and simplest) million people.

      Pulling that many people out of the US workforce and away from their families would have immediate impacts.  In a tight labor market, it may be difficult to replace the worker, and will add costs (at least for recruiting and initial training, if not higher wages).  An estimated 1 in 3 undocumented workers provide substantially for a family that includes US citizen children, so there will be immediate increases in child welfare costs.  Overall estimates vary … but Oxford Economics analysis came up with "assuming the Trump administration boosts deportations by 50 percent above the recent peak … the resultant smaller labor force could reduce real [gross domestic product] by up to 0.2 [percentage points] in the first year."

       

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      1. On the other hand, if *rump follows through with the additional $300 billion in Chinese tariffs, economists predict it will knock another 0.4% off our GDP and boost inflation, thus reducing the need for labor

         So far in 2019, American retailers have announced plans to shut more than 7,000 stores, after announcing nearly 6,000 closings last year, according to Coresight Research. Those numbers include liquidations of chains like Payless ShoeSource and Gymboree and store closings by healthier companies like Gap Inc. and Victoria’s Secret.

         By the end of 2019, announced closings could climb to 12,000 stores, Coresight estimated.

         The tariffs could also hurt the broader economy at a time when recession worries have moved to the forefront. The retail sector has shed 50,000 jobs since January.

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3. Anti-Vaxxers don't have a leg to stand on:

   At a time when the failure to immunize children is driving the biggest measles outbreak in decades, a little-known database offers one way to gauge the safety of vaccines.

   Over roughly the past dozen years in the United States, people have received about 126 million doses of vaccines against measles, a disease that once infected millions of American children and killed 400 to 500 people each year. During that period, 284 people filed claims of harm from those immunizations through a federal program created to compensate people injured by vaccines. Of those claims, about half were dismissed, while 143 were compensated.

   The data comes from the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, a no-fault system begun in 1988 after federal law established it as the place where claims of harm from vaccines must be filed and evaluated. It currently covers claims related to 15 childhood vaccines and the seasonal flu shot.

   The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated that vaccines prevented more than 21 million hospitalizations and 732,000 deaths among children over a 20-year period.

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4. And people say Biden has trouble staying on-message.

   Billionaire GOP donor and Trump supporter says he rejected Joe Biden’s request for fundraising help in 2020

   Biden spoke to Catsimatidis, who has an estimated net worth of $3.1 billion, for about 10 minutes at a fundraiser held at the New York home of short seller Jim Chanos, according to the businessman. When Biden asked for his help, “I just smiled,” Catsimatidis said.

   “An awful lot of people have offered to help — and the people who are usually the biggest donors in the Democratic Party, and I might add some major Republican folks,” Biden said in February, before he launched his campaign. He also repeatedly said he is open to working with Republicans in Congress if he were to become president.

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5. The Orlando Sentinel rains on *rump's parade

   The principal newspaper in Orlando, Fla., where the president is set to kick off his reelection bid Tuesday, has already announced its 2020 White House endorsement: anyone but Donald Trump.

   “We’re here to announce our endorsement for president in 2020, or, at least, who we’re not endorsing: Donald Trump,” the editorial board of the Orlando Sentinel announced Tuesday, hours before Trump is set to appear in the city’s Amway Center to launch his campaign for a second term.

    

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6. The good news for *rump just keeps rolling in :

   A new 2020 poll released hours before Donald Trump formally launches his re-election bid in Florida shows the president trailing Democratic White House hopefuls Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders in the nation’s largest swing state.

   The former vice president leads Trump among Florida voters by 50-41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll published Tuesday ahead of the president’s campaign kickoff rally at Orlando’s Amway Center.

   Trump also trails the Vermont senator by a 48-42 percent margin, while head-to-head match-ups pitting the president against other top-polling Democratic rivals are “too close to call,” according to the survey.

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7. Why won’t the Biden campaign release his medical records? It’s obvious that he has had a TIA/mini stroke. Just look at how his eye droops.

   Mayor Pete needs to press for Biden’s medical records.

   DNC is covering up for Biden.

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   1. Roger, you’re off message. It is:

      LOCK HER UP!  LOCK HER UP!

       

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      1. I think Biden should release his medical records; same for Sanders. And Trump should release actual medical records that haven't been "doctored" by some paid off medical person.

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   2. Hahahahhahhhahahah.

      No one cares

       

      The Central Park 5!!
      There was no collus exoneration — they were doing something bad in that park. Execute them!

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   3. Hey, are you ready to tell us yet about what you will do when the OD decides there should BE no 2020 elections? Or when he refuses to step down?

      Are you ready to join his Space Force and take down the American military?

      I have asked you to tell me if you believe your leader will accept a thrashing at the polls and leave the Whitest House….you have still no response. Why won't you answer me?

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   4. Idk why we should give a shit about Biden's medical records, tbh. Like, fuck Biden, but why should we care about his medical history instead of his policies and rhetoric?

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   5. Pitiful Pear — Why won't *rump release his psych exam?  What's he hiding?

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