March 23, 2010 07:45 PM UTC

Warning for GOP: Today is Not Tomorrow

•  
• by: Colorado Pols

As the health care reform debate moves on to the Senate after today’s signing of the House bill by President Obama, Republicans are boldly claiming that passage of reform legislation will play a major role in the 2010 elections. Efforts are already underway, including here in Colorado, to legally challenge the legislation on a state by state basis. Republicans are trying to tap into the anger of their base in hopes that it will propel them to election success in November.

To which we say: Hold on there, Tiger.

This warning may sound overly simple, but the fact remains that “today is not tomorrow.” Let us explain, as we think back to a post last week from The Washington Post blog “The Fix“:

All sides agree that the overall bill is not particularly popular at the moment [Pols emphasis]. Republicans ascribe that unpopularity to the fact that people know what’s in the bill and don’t like or want it. Democrats see the current poll numbers as evidence that they have lost the message war in the run-up to passage but once the bill moves through Congress and people become more educated about the legislation, the more they will like it.

“The Fix” goes on to discuss some key findings from a poll done in 92 Democratic districts (“a mix of top Republican targets, moderate/conservative Blue Dogs and rural seats”), which shows:

Nearly six in ten (59 percent) of voters in these districts support the idea of reforming the health care system and roughly that same number believe that the changes need to be made now.

While 42 percent of voters in these districts initially support the health care bill that number jumps to 51 percent “after hearing about some of the benefits of the plan.”

As “The Fix” wrote last week, The White House has long believed that passage of health care reform legislation will fundamentally alter public opinion. We tend to agree with that sentiment, because all of the polling done to this point has taken the pulse of an electorate that was so confused about what might or might not be in the bill that there was no way they could respond accurately. Furthermore, a recent CNN poll showed that 13% of Americans disliked the bill because they didn’t think it was liberal enough.

Our point is this: What do you suppose the polling is going to say in two months when pollsters can ask straight-up questions like, “How do you feel about the health care reform bill that a) stops insurance companies from barring people with pre-existing conditions, b) extends coverage to 32 million Americans, and c) significantly reduces the federal deficit?” We don’t think we’re going out on a limb by saying that the results of that poll are going to be pretty positive.

Of course, a lot can change between now and November, but Republicans should be careful about banking on an anger over health care legislation that for months was just a neverending mishmash of rumors and scary talking points. Now that the bill is done — now that Republicans can’t excite people about what might be in a reform bill, but instead can only talk about what is in the bill — the task of using health care reform as a way to victory in November is decidedly different. Voters may find pieces of the legislation that they are unhappy with, but by and large most of them aren’t going to dislike the idea, for example, of ending restrictions on pre-existing conditions.

The Republican strategy on health care reform was always about saying “NO” to everything and trying to get the whole thing killed so that they could simultaneously attack Democrats for bad legislation and an inability to get things done. That strategy doesn’t work now, not in the same way at least, and there’s a good chance that the majority of voters will actually be happy about the reform bill by the time September rolls around.