President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
52%↑
48%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
60%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 27, 2018 12:42 PM UTC
7 Comments
It’s not just you; the 2018 election may actually never end.
But, on average, how many by-elections can we expect between now and mid 2020?
Three a year for the House of Representatives. I looked at the google spreadsheet that DailyKos used for the Special Election Index and hand counted the number of special elections from 2008-2017. It came out evenly to 30 total, so average of three per year.
Obviously, this is just a very rough estimate and I might have miscounted since I was doing this by hand. The high was five and the low was one. There may be a better source of information out there, but this was the first one I found in a search using DuckDuckGo.
We'll have to see… We had a larger-than-normal retirement rate leading up to 2018, so we'll probably not have the same rate from here to 2020. But there might be some straggler Republicans who won't find the minority as such a fun place to be, or maybe a Democrat thinking now's the time to jump to another opportunity.
The average number of Special Elections to the US House of Representatives appears to be somewhat stable and while the resignations may have been higher, the total number of special elections was not without precedent in the last two decades.
In the 107th United States Congress (2001-2002) there were 9
In the 108th United States Congress (2003-2004) there were 5
In the 109th United States Congress (2005-2006) there were 6
In the 110th United States Congress (2007-2008) there were 13
In the 111th United States Congress (2009-2010) there were 11
In the 112th United States Congress (2011-2012) there were 10
In the 113th United States Congress (2013-2014) there were 16
In the 114th United States Congress (2015-2016) there were 7
In the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018) there were 16
My revised prediction using better numbers and excluding the 115th Congress will be for 9 special elections for the 116th Congress, high of 16, low of 5.
Apologies for the errors in my earlier post. I should have assumed that Wikipedia would have a list.
I think you'll need to round up a bit, as Trump doesn't have too many places to recruit staff who can get confirmed EXCEPT for members of the House and Senate.
In a fit of weirdness, the North Carolina State Board Of Elections has delayed certification of NC-09, citing serious irregularities. The vote was unanimous. No word on the specifics, though one board member cited what sound like long-term problems, and the state GOP suspects it's a problem with a specific county.
The Republican, Mark Harris, is up just 905 votes out of 283,000 over challenger Dan McCready. The board could order a whole new election if they find the results to be irreparably compromised.
https://www.wsoctv.com/news/north-carolina/north-carolina-board-delays-finalizing-congressional-result/879399464
And Mark Harris is another Dr. Chaps as far as mental stability goes.