Jason Crow Beat Mike Coffman By 11 Points

Earlier this week we wrote about the updated numbers in Colorado’s gubernatorial race, which show Democrat Jared Polis defeating Republican Walker Stapleton by a double-digit margin. If you thought those numbers were surprising, then this is really going to bake your noodle: Democrat Jason Crow beat Republican Mike Coffman in CO-6 by more than 11 points!

Take a look at how the margins in CO-6 have changed since the district boundaries were redrawn prior to the 2012 election cycle:

 

In the 2016 Presidential race, Democrat Hillary Clinton carried CO-6 by 9 points over Republican Donald Trump. Clinton’s margin was hard to square with Coffman’s 8-point win over Democrat Morgan Carroll in the same election…so how do you explain 2018?

Many Democrats have long assumed that holding CO-6 would be a tougher challenge than taking it from Coffman in the first place, but Crow’s 2018 margin may flip that thinking. Trump obviously hurt Coffman in 2018, and he wasn’t even on the ballot like he will be in 2020. What these numbers indicate is that Colorado’s 6th Congressional District may actually be out of reach for Republicans until at least 2022.

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  1. Mike W. says:

    Well, technically it'll be out of reach PERMANENTLY, as we get a redraw in 2022 (one which, I'll continue to insist, will likely create a safe R district anchored in Douglas County, which I imagine Coffman will run in unless his future lobbying job will be THAT cushy). 

    As much as I wish it had been Carroll, I always knew in the back of my mind that we'd need a veteran to overcome that last little bit Miklosi needed to win it. 

    • DENependent says:

      Why do you think the redistricting commission will decide that Douglas County should do anything but anchor CD-4 like it does now? It about half the population that CD-4 needs to be a district at 335,299 of the ~700,000 that dividing the current population by eight gives if Highlands Ranch is no longer split off to be part of CD-6.

      • Gilpin Guy says:

        Nice analysis that isn't 'from the gut'.  There is no incentive for the new redistricting commission to bow before Republicans.  They aren't in the majority or have a dominant voice in the coming discussions.

      • Mike W. says:

        The commission will prioritize keeping political subdivisions whole, keeping together communities of interest (defined as ethnic, racial, or religious minorities), keeping districts compact, and only then will it seek to make as many competitive districts as possible. 

        In order for Weld and Douglas to be in the same district, they'd need Washington, Lincoln, and Elbert at least, and then either Morgan or Logan and Sedgwick, at which point they'd reach their max pop. Its either this (and then having Phillips et al be linked up to another district anchored in Pueblo) or to go through Adams and Arapahoe and leave more of the plains intact, but still separate from Weld County. Alternatively, Weld stays with all the plains counties, and picks up Pueblo instead of Douglas. Weld is closer in ethnic makeup and income levels to Pueblo than it is to Douglas, even if it is further away. 

        Keep going, and this eventually leaves only three counties that need to be split: JeffCo, Adams, and Arapahoe (plus Denver if you want cleaner lines). This would naturally suggest that the south of Arapahoe goes to Douglas's district along with the JeffCo south of Lakewood, Aurora gets linked up with Commerce City and Thornton around or through DIA (which takes from Perlmutter's district), and Denver loses Columbine, and possibly Englewood if you keep DIA in with the rest of the city.

  2. unnamed says:

    But but but, Coffman's going to run for his old seat in 2020 and take it back.  Moddy Meltdown told me so.

  3. davebarnesdavebarnes says:

    Mike would have won if he embraced The Dumpster®. At least that is what some orange buffoon tweeted/said.

  4. unnamed says:

    Coffman's take on his loss

    “Donald Trump is about Donald Trump, and what Donald Trump is, is he wants to be the center of attention every single day,” Coffman said, reflecting on Republicans’ newfound position in the House minority. “He wants to dominate the news cycle every single day, and good luck trying to get a message out of that.”

     

    In some ways, Coffman knew what was coming. The National Republican Congressional Committee — the official campaign arm for House Republicans — told him on Day 1 that if his race became part of the national referendum on the president, he was toast.

    “I tried, and I couldn’t do it,” he said, about localizing his race. Coffman’s district, the suburbs outside of Denver, Colorado, looks like a lot of the districts Democrats were able to pick off this midterm cycle. It’s always been held by a Republican, but voters there really doesn’t like Trump. Hillary Clinton won the district by nearly 9 points in 2016.

  5. Gray in Mountains says:

    We'll likely have an eighth CD in 2022.

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