January 21, 2010 07:00 PM UTC

Is Romanoff Ready for Primetime?

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• by: Middle of the Road

After Tuesday’s press conference that might be better described as the preacher gamely chatting with the choir while the rest of the Democratic world focused on Massachusetts, it’s time to take a good look at why Romanoff’s timing in all things campaign related continues to be a day late and a dollar short. This is an important factor for Democrats to consider, because keeping this seat in Democratic hands has taken on new importance since Tuesday’s special election. Moreover, it’s why we spend so much time talking about viability–things like experience, message, organization, and fundraising ability.

One of the main talking points coming from Andrew and his supporters is that Andrew has won election four times in HD-6, thus proving that he has what it takes to run statewide for office. And yet, ironically, he claims to be a political outsider…

As with most things, a little background sheds some light on whether or not Romanoff has ever been in a truly competitive race–which in the end goes a long towards explaining why a supposedly “experienced” candidate for U.S. Senate has been running such an inexperienced campaign.

Let’s start by examining House District 6. HD6 is the heart of the Democratic Party, both literally and figuratively. It encompasses Arapahoe and Denver Counties, the seat of political action. Is it fair to tout as experience winning a House seat four times in a district that’s practically impossible for a Democrat to lose, particularly when he had no opponent for one of the four elections?

Let’s look at some demographics in the district first. The numbers show a clear trend for Democrats, starting with 38.8% that affiliated themselves with the Democratic Party in November 2000. As of August of 2009, a whopping 45.1% affiliate themselves with Democrats.

The loser here is the Republican Party that started off at a anemic 28.5% and is now down to a paltry 22.4% in the district. Unaffilateds have remained virtually the same, ranging between 32.9% and the current 31.8%. This is all a fancy way of saying “Safe Seat.”

Unconvinced?

Let’s take a look at some election results. As we have been reminded on multiple occasions by both Romanoff and his supporters, he has won election four times. From Romanoff’s speech at the press conference on January 19th:

I ran for office four times –  and got elected four times – by engaging as many voters as possible.  I recognize that the stakes in this race are a little higher.

No one disputes that he served in the House Legislature for 8 years.  No one disputes he was elected–that’s kind of how our political system works. We cast votes. And I do believe that Andrew had great outreach with the voters in his district. However, it cannot be discounted that Romanoff has only run for office in a district that leans overwhelmingly Democratic. It cannot be discounted that he ran in a district that had no opponent in 2002. It cannot be discounted that he ran in a district that ran a sacrificial Republican for 3 of the 4 elections with no hope of winning.  

2000 Election:

District total votes cast:

Romanoff (D) 14,687

Eldon Strong (R) 8,795

Dawn Reader-McCreery (L) 812

2002 Election:

District total votes cast:

Romanoff (D) 18,208

AR-no Republican opponent

2004 Election:

District total votes cast:

Romanoff (D) 23,782

Jeff Taton (L) 821

Gregory Golyansky(R) 9391  

2006 Election:

District total votes cast:

AR (D) 19,640

Jeffrey Hecht (R) 6,308

Usually, in a safe seat like this, the competitive election boils down to the Democratic primary. You could say it would have been the only relevant “campaign” in Andrew’s career. So maybe the August 2000 Democratic primary is the barometer of Andrew’s campaign experience? Nope. He had a clear field in that one too in 2000.

Romanoff’s campaign continues to falter while he struggles to differentiate himself from his opponent. His campaign continues to make the type of errors more common from a rookie running for the local city council than a seasoned House legislator who “was elected to four terms.”

As the Denver Post succinctly puts it:

Multiple analysts have criticized the Romanoff campaign for failing to give Democratic voters a reason to vote against an incumbent senator out of office.

In recent weeks, reports have cast Romanoff – once a leader of his party – as a falling star.

Is the fact that a state politician that ran (four times!) for office in one of the safest districts in Colorado actually an explanation of why Andrew hasn’t quite been able to grasp the Campaign 101 fundamentals of a statewide campaign in a state as competitive as Colorado? When the average voter hears him tout his four-time winning streak for the House, perhaps they are unaware of just how easy a ride Romanoff has had in campaigns…until now. He can’t continue to have it both ways–touting his incredible experience as a candidate and a legislator and then claiming he’s a political outsider. The facts do not bear out his assertions.

Long story short, is Romanoff ready for primetime? The answer is important, because at the end of the day this is about who is the strongest candidate to beat Jane Norton in November.