PPP: Polis 46%, Stapleton 38%

Jared Polis (L) and Walker Stapleton

A press release from Colorado Democrats announces the results of a new poll from Democratic-aligned but reliable Public Policy Polling, showing Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jared Polis opening an eight-point lead over Republican Walker Stapleton:

This morning, PPP released a poll commissioned by the Colorado Democratic Party showing Jared Polis with a 46%-38% lead over Walker Stapleton among likely general election voters, and a 43%-31% lead over Stapleton with unaffiliated voters.

The poll also shows that Walker Stapleton’s statewide favorability rating is 15 points underwater — worse numbers than Trump’s job approval — with a favorable rating of 27% and an unfavorable rating of 42%. Meanwhile, Polis starts the general election campaign in positive territory.

“Jared is in a very strong position heading into the general election as Democrats and unaffiliated voters unite around his bold vision for Colorado,” said Colorado Democratic Party Chair Morgan Carroll. “By contrast, Stapleton’s allegiance to Trump and the special interests that bankroll his campaign has turned off Colorado voters.”

Here’s the details on the poll. There’s very little here in terms of good news for Colorado Republicans, with Stapleton behind outside the poll’s margin of error even though President Donald Trump’s favorability among the same voters is steady at 44%. Folding in leaners shaves very little off Polis’ lead, and the gender gap between the candidates shows that Polis’ lead among women voters is several points greater than Stapleton’s lead among men. Those are all boxes you can check under “good for Democrats.”

Other than the usual carping about the pollster, the only thing Republicans can really say about these numbers is that they could be worse. And, well, we suppose that’s right.

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9 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. unnamed says:

    Cue our resident fascist goose stepper to tell us this poll is bullshit because it doesn't show the Republican Cynthia Coffman, er, I mean Wayne Stumbleton ahead.  

  2. Pseudonymous says:

    Pols, what's the MoE for the poll?  If it's 4%, that's a tie.

    • Voyageur says:

      Not really, Sudafed.  Yes, in theory, you could add 4 points to Staplegun and deduct 4 fromPolis.  But at the 95 percent confidence level, there is only a one in 400 chance that the result is accurate.  each would be one in 20, but for both, it's one in 20 times 1 in 20.

    • Mike W. says:

      Or he's up 50-32 by that logic…

      • Pseudonymous says:

        Yep.

        I simplified of course, because it’s way more likely that Jared’s ahead than not. And, to be honest, I offered the correct MoE, so I really didn’t need to know it from the poll, I guess. I just like pointing out polls don’t always mean what they say. Maybe next time I’ll just say that. 🙂

        • Voyageur says:

          Fair enough, Psudy.  The given margins of error are just for sampling error.  Others creep in by how you handle cell phones, whether your sample is really random, etc.   Yes, polls can br useful, but as you rightly note, we shouldn't make a cult of them.

    • JohnInDenver says:

      PPP says the sample was 608. I plugged that in, assuming 3 million votes with standard 95% confidence level, and it comes back with a 3.97 margin of error.

  3. gertie97 says:

    Just wait 'til we see his guv-lite pick!

     

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