The Big Line has been updated to reflect several recent moves. Quick rundown below.
GOVERNOR
The outcome of this race could very well hinge on what Tom Tancredo decides to do. If he runs, then at the very least he forces Scott McInnis much further to the right than he would want to go. All of which benefits Gov. Bill Ritter. If Tancredo is out, McInnis can stay to the middle, and Ritter is in trouble.
SENATE
This race is starting to crystallize. Jane Norton is the clear frontrunner on the GOP side, with Tom Wiens the only wild card left. Ken Buck is definitely done, and it makes sense for him to start thinking about another option (say, CD-4?)
On the Democratic side, Sen. Michael Bennet is pulling away from Andrew Romanoff already, with the latter making us wonder if he can even run a viable statewide campaign.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
At what point do Democrats just totally write off this race and concede to John Suthers? With no real challengers on the horizon, it may be sooner rather than later.
CD-3
Republican Scott Tipton is back for more after getting brained in 2006. No reason to think it won’t happen again, despite Tipton’s optimism to the contrary.
CD-4
We don’t have the change on the Line yet, but should Ken Buck start thinking about changing from Senate to this race? With Cory Gardner looking weak, it would make sense.
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it seems to me that Ritter needs to see an upturn in the economy. If that happens, he’s golden. If not, I think he still has a chance but it’s much more difficult. McInnis was our US Rep, the though of him as governor drives me to distraction.
If it gets better by next fall, Democrats are in good shape. If not, they’re not.
on that, at least, DickW is right.
Do you really think Ritter is no better than equal with McInnis at this point? Didn’t think it was quite so bad as that! Yikes! At a recent event, get this, Romanoff was talking about how important it is to support Ritter. Guess it’s really time to circle the wagons.
McInnis and Ritter are pretty similar and come from fairly similar backgrounds. All things being equal, if McInnis can outraise Ritter (which he probably will), then this could really be a toss-up.
But they are only even as of right now. If Tancredo runs, then Ritter gets a significant bump.
Everyone is doing just what McInnis wants them to do. You’re underestimating him, look at what he’s done so far…done well in fundraising, ran off Penry, never had to debate and has kept his campaign afloat even though some people though it was killing his chances. He’s overcome all of that and yet people are still doubting him, which I guess is good for him because the Democrats will never see him coming if that’s the case.
The economy will be a huge thing but the chances of people getting their jobs back by election aren’t looking good with the unemployment rate going up, again. I don’t see it improving a whole heck of a lot in less than a year.
As for Tancredo, he doesn’t have a chance…and that’s only if he decides to run, which I’m willing to bet he doesn’t. It’s all about the attention he’s getting for just saying he’s thinking about it.
You’re drinking the same Kool-Aid he is. You’ve got Scooter at 12-1, so for Tipton, something on order of 15-1, at least, is more realistic.
State Senator Dan Gibbs is making an announcement today at noon on the steps of the courthouse in Breckenridge. Could see a change here.
What was it?
and not seeking re-election to the Senate.
And fewer budget cuts than at the state level. Also, no commute to Denver.
Dan is a bright young guy with a lot of promise. He could have done well going for a national office.
So where is Kirk on the Big Line?
Kirk Nemer: Common sense for Colorado.
He’ll make an announcement soon.
Wow. Never heard that slogan before.
After you refer to his rank, use his first name not his last.
Why hasn’t anyone else step up to run for this? Are there really no qualified candidates who actually want to take the time to run? If so, that’s a little embarrassing.
John Suthers is one of the strongest potential Republican candidates for higher office in the future. The Democrats should at least try give him a run for his money.
A lot of people who are qualified to be AG don’t want the job, for various reasons. For one thing, if you are a district attorney in Colorado, you make about $50-60k more per year than you would make as AG. Most private attorneys also make considerably more money than the $80k per year that Colorado pays its AG. Money isn’t everything, but in this economy, it certainly matters.
And he’s probably going to use his multiple terms as AG as a reason voters should send him to higher office. It worked for Ken Salazar. It might not pay well, but it’s a stepping off point politically.
But he doesn’t have the juice to do so. Suthers doesn’t want to be AG – it’s just the only thing left. He was a Senate candidate for 5 minutes earlier this year, remember. AG is often a stepping stone, but it is the end of the line for Suthers.
And a strong one. He’s the only Republican that holds statewide office right now, in a time when Democrats dominate everything. Of all the Republican political figures in this state, he’s probably the one with the least amount of negativity associated with one issue or another that usually plagues the GOP here.
Or it might not be in him. I just think he’s probably all the Republicans have right now in terms of potential candidates who don’t have a great deal of baggage.
he can keep his job if he loses.
Kinda like Penry.
He was elected in 2006. CO Statesman got it wrong today. Of course if Penry runs in 2010 & wins he would have a free ride in 2012 for something. Not sure what that would be if he doesn’t want to run in 3rd CD.
If Penry runs in 2010 for a new seat and loses, he’s out of work. If he gets re-elected in 2010, then he can run in 2012 without risking his day job. (This assumes that re-election is a slam-dunk).
Suthers is in the same boat.
The only seats open in 2012 will be congressional seats. If John Salazar still wants the job, especially after three years on Appropriations, it’s his for the asking. Lamborn probably isn’t going anywhere either (if Suthers would consider that seat a step up from a statewide office). There aren’t any statewide or U.S. Senate elections until 2014.
There’s gotta be a job at Mesa State waiting for him.
If he’s not important, then President Foster will have little use for him. He’ll be just another aging ex-quarterback.
That’s how it works up on North Avenue.
What about Romanoff for AG? He’s a lawyer, right? He has built a small dollar network that would be better suited for down ticket statewide race with lower contribution limits than Senate, and it sets him up to run for another office later.
According to the state constitution, a qualified AG candidate must be a licensed attorney of the Supreme Court of the state in good standing.
That you have to be a member of the bar in Colorado for a certain number of years before you are eligible to run (Romanoff only graduated from law school this year). But an attorney who reads/posts here probably knows better.
http://www.elections.colorado….
The Colorado AG makes about half what a first year associate (free out of law school or judicial clerkship) at a top paying NYC law firm does. So, yes, the pay sucks.
But, the AG has far more power than the SOS, or the State Treasurer, or any member of the State Board of Education or CU Regents, and also realistically has more power than most committee chairpersons in the legislature.
Indeed, the only people who can compete with the AG in terms of state level power are the Governor himself, maybe the Governor’s chief of staff, the Speaker of the State House and the State Senate President.
The AG also realistically has more power than the U.S. Attorney for the District of Colorado (the highest ranking federal prosecutor assigned to the state), or any DA in the state.
Few private law firms in Colorado have as many Colorado attorneys as the AG’s office in which the AG is equivalent to a managing partner, and no private law firm has the broad powers afforded to the AG’s office that private attorneys don’t share.
The AG plays a central role of all regulatory drafting, can write opinions that bind the executive branch on unresolved legal issues, has broad powers to take positions for the state on hot button constitutional and state constitutional issues (including every death penalty appeal), and gets to decide who is worth prosecuting (civilly or criminally) and who is not. The AG can effectively make law through consent decrees with parties that have faced suit from the AG.
are you announcing your candidacy?
Thought Dan Slater had announced for AG on the Dems side.
He rescinded his candidacy.
Dan Slater backed out not too long after announcing.
I know a lot of you so-called policy wonk experts are going to jump down my throat and call me naive. Yes, I recognize Ritter has angered some in the Democratic Party and Unaffiliateds, but he most certainly is not on par with McInnis, who is a wishy washy lawyer-lobbyist that his own party doesn’t even like. Regardless of what Tancredo does, Ritter is still ahead of McInnis at this point.
Seems that’s overestimating Tancredo’s odds more than a bit.
Maybe you’re just trying your darndest to encourage him to run?
Tom the Bomb will definitely make things lively, but he’s more like a Ken Buck-ish 30-1 to actually get the GOP Gubernatorial nomination, I’d think.
Buck is dead in the water already. Tancredo at least has a national network he can draw upon.
will continue to be in the news on a regular basis as the President’s agenda goes forth. the Speaker has his work cut out for him.
I belive will be in better shape than expected. The UFCW situation has turned out not to be a strike as yet.
How about Beth McCann? Her experience includes:
* State Representative on Judiciary Committee.
* Deputy Attorney General in charge of the Civil Litigation and Employment Law Section of the Colorado Attorney General’s Office, supervising 33 attorneys, 11 paralegals, and 7 administrative assistants.
* Law clerk for now-deceased U.S. District Court Judge Sherman G. Finesilver.
* [A]lmost eight years as Deputy and then Chief Deputy District Attorney in Denver, prosecuting hundreds of cases, including child abuse and murder.
* [P]rivate practice for seven years with the Denver law firm of Cooper & Kelley, P.C., earning a partnership in that firm in 1985.
* In 1991, Mayor Wellington Webb asked McCann to be his first Denver Manager of Safety. She managed one of the largest agencies in Denver city government, including the Denver Police, Fire, Sheriff’s Departments with a budget of $170 million and a staff of almost 3,000 employees.
If she loses, Ritter could put her in charge of the Department of Corrections.
What about Franklin D. Azar (TV ad buying plaintiff’s attorney)?
What about Mitch Morrisey, who also has the virtue of being a moderate by Denver standards?
Has Terrance Carroll been an attorney long enough to be eligible? He’s been speaker of the House, isn’t running for anything else, he’s termed, and even if he doesn’t win, he’s spent a good chunk of time building name recognition.
The Strong Arm? Surely you’re joking.
I thought he was a Republican. Or at least donates to a lot of them.
then again, the trial lawyers association would love to see him get elected
I have no idea who I’d vote for in a primary between Strong Arm, Rocky (Auto) and Dealin Doug….
…I’d probably go with Rocky…
the land of shy Lutherans, based on his experience as a pro-wrestler.
Mayor Bloomberg, ran as a Republican in New York City, despite the fact that he is probably one of the most liberal elected Republicans in the nation, and despite the fact that it is generally far easier to be elected as a Democrat.
Surely, it would be less remarkable if a prominent trial lawyer who lightly supervises lots of other trial lawyers mostly representing those who are down on their luck ran for a post that involves as a key job requirement supervision of lots of lightly supervised trial lawyers representing those who are often down on their luck, even if he often contributes money to Republicans.
Likely, no. Possible, yes. When conventional wisdom fails to produce a result, you broaden the realm of possibilities. I would be more shocked if the Democrats nominated no one.
was a real live celebrity. Azar is a sweaty looking ambulance chaser whose name rec comes from cheesy TV ads. Azar is no Jesse Ventura and Ventura was an aberration those shy Lutherans would probably rather forget.
lawyers with five years of experience which rules out the real fun candidates.
What qualifies as “good standing” for a lawyer by statute definition?
While DAs must be attorneys for 5 years, I don’t think the same requirement applies for AG.
Says you must “be an attorney in good standing” with the state in order to run for AG. What does “good standing” mean?
and “good standing” has nothing to do with the number of years one has been licensed. So sayeth my bitchy lawyer “friends.”
I meant my earlier comment to respond to youzzz. There is no 5-year requirement for AG, gd.
Don’t you mean “infamous”?