U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Michael Bennet
50%
50%
50%
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Jena Griswold
(D) Brian Mason
60%↑
30%↑
20%↓
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%↑
30%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Manny Rutinel
(D) Yadira Caraveo
45%↓
40%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
April 12, 2006 08:00 AM UTC
81 Comments
Peggy Lamm has no money in the bank
Peggy Lamm has no position on the War In Iraq.
Peggy Lamm has a still pending investigation with the Jefferson County District Attorney’s Office that she refuses to discuss.
What Peggy does have is an interview with John Ferrugia that will come back to haunt her every day of this campaign.
Ed has been steady and will win the primary with 60% plus. Ed after studying the issue carefully took a thoughtful position in support of the Murtha resolution
I disagree, its not going to be a 60% win on any side of this coin. The thing that people are not taking into acct is that Peggy is liked right off the bat. In the primary game that wins votes. When I met Ed, he comes off as a slime ball. Herb comes off as a left-o wack job and Peggy seems like a nice former teacher.
To the average primary voter who meets them once, who do you see winning. Peggy has made huge mistakes but is still out there talking about the issues. When I was out meeting a friend for dinner in the 7th – I saw not 1 but 2 people out there getting peggy on the ballot. It was great vis for her… We shall see in the game of cat and mouse.
deminator-
I completely disagree. Personal perceptions of the candidates are an individual thing. That might be what you think, but I think the complete opposite. When I met Peggy, she came off as condescending, flaky, and inexperienced. And Herb’s not as “left-o wack job” as you think. Would someone explain to me how a consumption tax on the lower class is a Democratic principle? Herb’s hiding that position now, but it was one of the 90-jillion points he used to have up. As far as Ed goes…When I met Ed, I thought he was tough, competent, experienced, and direct. Those are qualities I look for in a politician.
Well we disagree, I am not saying Herb is a left crazy but when I first met him he sure sounded like it. All three of them are better than Rick, but the rifts forming are going to doom the Democratic party in the 7th CD.
Boy you guys are getting serious about this primary.
Deminator, do you really think a vigorous primary is going to doom you guys? Right now it looks like Ed or Peggy will be the nominees… Do you think the loser will run as a Green or an independant? Now that would all but guarantee ROD wins it.
No I am not saying it will, I am saying it can. Look to the posts for proof ( being prob 99% of the people do not live in the 7th) I just hope we all work together after Peggy wins 🙂
The only person this primary will hurt is Ed. Why do you think he’s been working so hard to get Peggy to drop out? He knows the polling data as well as anyone because his own pollster gave it to him. Peggy is 15 points ahead and now that she’s caught up in the fundraising chase, Ed’s 15 minutes are up.
Peggy took an official stance on the war, if you watch the video on her web site, P.W.
“After studying the issue carefully” Ed should have decided to run for Congress. Seems to me that he did things a little out of order. Finally taking a position after half a year of “studying carefully” is not really a virtue, and isn’t really something to brag about.
I would hope that the loser of the primary would graciously bow out and extend an olive branch with an official endorsement. I am not looking forward to the negativity that will undoubtedly come from this race, but when I read posts like that of Perlmutter Wins I realize that, sadly, it is inevitable. The best we can hope for is unity behind one candidate after the primary. I just wonder if people like P.W. will be willing to accept the outcome, no matter who wins.
See? There they go again – making up negative attacks against Peggy. Thanks for calling them on it, Joker.
Offical stance?
Peggy Lamm says that we should bring our troops home sooner rather than later.
That means nothing and is exactly what the administration says.
Sure, we know the war is a mess all so agree. What a leader must offer is a solution.
Rubenstein has a thoughtful position on the War at least. Perlmutter has a thoughtful position. Bringing troops home sooner rther than later is simply insulting
Peggy is 15 points ahead and now that she’s caught up in the fundraising chase, Ed’s 15 minutes are up.
…………
Well, if we could just SEE these polling numbers, then we’d all know. They seem to be a well guarded secret.
And she’s ‘caught up’ in the fundraising chase? Oh really?
Poll results:
http://www.digitalcandidate.com/upload/lamm_f_614_11.pdf
And her press release about them:
http://www.peggylammforcongress.com/index.php?section=news&id=513
The only “guarded secret” poll results are Perlmutter’s.
Perlmutter supporters are looking at this race through rose-colored glasses. It will be harder and harder to do as this race progresses and momentum shifts even more.
The point has been made repeatedly, BMR, that the polls exist, but have not been released because 1) they were done by Perlmutter’s pollster, and 2) they were not good news for the Perlmutter camp. To be honest, you really don’t have to take anyone’s word for it. You can come to the conclusion that Peggy is in a good position by simply looking at the facts: she has name recognition, she has a new campaign staff built for success with an impeccable track record, and she had a very successful fundraising quarter in spite of the mistakes she made.
P.W., you are throwing stones from Ed’s glass house in JeffCo. Meanwhile, the real issue here is fundraising and Ed is in serious trouble. You obviously know that, which is why you use the war as a distraction.
From Peggy’s video at:
http://www.peggylammforcongress.com/
Peggy: “I believe we’ve done what we can in Iraq, and it’s time to start bringing our troops home.”
So Mr. Perlmuitter Wins, since when is that the position of our president? What classified memo did you read that in?
Holy smack down Batman… and here I thought Peggy was a joke!
Rick! Yo, Rick! This is so cool, when she wins the Primary, all you’ll need to do is have a commercial playing of her on that one 9news expose. It will be so cool dude.
“…now that she’s caught up in the fundraising chase…”
*********
Lamm–funds raised to date $302,000.00. Actual figure of money she has on hand? Lamm refuses to disclose.
Perlmutter–has on hand $444,000.00, after expenses.
Mike, you suck at math. Stick to the facts and invest in a calculator.
Perlmutter has $444K on hand… that is a scary, scary number. He had $401K on hand at the end of Q1. I did invest in a calculator, Middle of the Road, and it tells me that that means he has burned through all but $43K… in other words he has saved $14K per month this quarter! His coffers are hemmoraging right now, and on what? Peggy has only gained momentum in the last three months! If he was going for a knockout blow, it failed miserably. Now he’s on the ropes.
I thought you would appreciate the boxing analogies, Iron Mike, so here’s another one for you: this general election should be the undercard. The true heavyweights are going at it in the Democratic primary for the right to KO Ricky O. O’Donnell probably should start the negative campaigns against his potential opponents, and he probably should trot out Hastert and Cheney. He will need all the help he can get. Prediction: first round knock-out. Down goes O’Donnell! Down goes O’Donnell!
I’m kinda thinking the Space Cowboy has his math right folks. Did anyone else happen to check those poll numbers? There is only one way to tear down those numbers and that is to go after Peggy with a negative add barrage that could nuke a grid square.
Now O’Donnell could do that and it would be just good old fashioned politics, but to go after a gal like Peggy in a Primary, with still no guarantee of winning… Oh boy!
I’m going to need some popcorn…
Well now let’s not go crazy Space Cowboy…
I think the numbers look great for Peggy now, but ROD doesn’t have a Primary. There is no reason in the world for him to spend a dime prior to August 9th (or maybe even the 10th).
Ed looks pretty determined to win this, but the numbers make it an uphill brawl. Peggy will need to spend a hunk of her cash to fend off Ed, leaving her broke for the General. Then while she is on the big DNC tours trolling for out of state cash, ROD will be set to spend big on commercials and make his rounds in the district to help old ladies accross the street, clean up run down neighborhoods, kiss babies and press flesh.
I mean come on… No contest.
This is the biggest, most important Congressional race nationwide. Once the primaries are over, money becomes a moot point. There will be so much money poured into this race that everything they raised up to the primary will pale in comparison.
It is a nice advantage to bank that money as opposed to spending it on a primary race, but think of the exposure Ed, Peggy and Herb will get in the next few months. Meanwhile, the only exposure O’Donnell gets is negative exposure, and that is the only way he will make the news between now and August is things like the EPA fundraiser. That is a tough position to be in, hoping to remain inconspicuous until August while your opponent gets face time with voters through the primary.
The poll listed by ‘the goods’ was a name recognition push poll conducted amongst likely female voters. Somebody from Peggy’s camp, posting as “henry,” said as much, and added “it served its purpose at the time, when we were getting a lot of bad news” or something to very similar effect. The post is assumably still up if anybody cares to check it out.
Let’s not forget, that particular poll was pretty much a laughing stock when they released it.
So, to beat the drum once again, because some just don’t seem to be comrehending . . .
There is no ‘secret’ Perlmutter poll. The Peggy supporters have completely fabricated this idea simply based on the fact that Ed’s campaign cut a check to Celinda Lake.
If they would stop and think for a moment, they might realize it’s possible that the check was for consulting, a retainer on her future services, perhaps for designing an as yet taken poll, etc.
They could have paid her to do many other things besides take this supposed poll, but these Peggy supporters (interns and staffers would be a better description) have hitched all their hopes to this theory, and I doubt any logic presented here will dislodge their pitiably false assumption.
Here is another essential fact that will likely be ignored – it will take a lot of money to beat O’Donnell. Ed is on track to do this – Peggy is not.
We don’t know exactly what kind of money Peggy has to spend right now, but you can be assured it’s not a lot.
There is no strategic advantage to keeping the number a secret. If the figure was even remotely decent, they’d release it.
This is damage control. They’re better off with people speculating about how little money she moght have rather than releasing the actual figure and scaring off support and inviting more requests for her to bow out gracefully.
If she released a poor figure right now (and you can be pretty certain it is), it would probably nuke any momentum she’s been trying to scrounge up and put and end to the campaign. It’s actually a smart move.
You can go so far as to disregard all Peggy’s campaign errors, her lack of true residency in the 7th, the subsequent fraud investigation, her avoidance of the caucus for fear of elimination, that terrible 7News interview, the pending question of whether she’ll retain her name confusion/recognition through the campaign (especially if asked about old Dick Lamm’s current activities), – you can throw it all out.
But, even without all those problems, she’s still a poor canidate against O’Donnell because she just isn’t going to have the money.
Ed spent a lot of money on the Celinda Lake poll that he refuses to release.
Everyone knocked the Ridder/Braden poll for Peggy. Yet other polls are showing the same result.
Peggy released her poll numbers why won’t Ed Perlmutter do the same>
Your numbers sound right, SpaceCowboy. I’m looking at the $120,000 he’s got over Peggy right now but your point is well taken.
I’m more concerned about Iron Mike’s point, which is also valid and pertinent to Ed and Peggy. Whichever one comes out of the primary the victor, he or she will have spent a hell of alot of money to do it. True also, primaries give them an advantage to get their names out, but spending all your dough doing it may defeat the purpose.
I hope you’re right about money being poured into the race after the primary. If you are, I feel better. If you’re not, I feel worse.
You know we really can’t forget that the 7th was supposed to be the battle royal in 2004 also. BB had won 2002 by the slimmest margin since the Missouri Compromise and then too the winner of the DEM nomination was supposed to be swimming in dough for the big rumble with Both Ways Bob.
But it seems when the DNC caught whiff of a chance to win the 3rd and maybe even the 4th… mid-September the DNC dropped what’s his name like a bad habit. Bob woke up and realised he might have to do some campaigning… He ran a couple good attack pieces on TV, cleaned up a couple run down neighborhoods, helps a couple old ladies accross the street, kisses a baby or two and low and behold blows what’s his name out of the water.
The 7th is not a slam dunk for you DEMs at all. I think the DNC will shove a boatload of cash at the 6th just for the chance to embarrass Tancredo. Same in the 4th for a chance to take down my girl Marylyn, and I for one think Tipton could make a run at the 3rd.
All three things to distract DNC money from finding its way to the 7th when ROD breaks his piggy bank.
There’s no way to prove that the Perlmutter poll does or does not exist, but I’ve never heard of a campaign with a primary that didn’t do a poll before April. Either they have a poll and its bad or they’re not very good at anything besides fundraising.
And I’m sure if Peggy’s folks had a copy of the poll they’d put it out there. But you don’t need a copy to know about it – Ed staffers tell a few of their close friends, who have a few close friends, who maybe have some friends that support Peggy.
Here’s the logic: Haven’t you wondered why there’s so little pressure on Peggy to drop out? And I don’t mean by Ed and his DC cronies. If Perlmutter had shown them a good poll you can bet that the Salazar brothers, Hickenlooper, and every other Colorado Democratic with any influence would have done whatever they could to get Peggy out – including public endorsements. As it stands, they’re all silent. So again, either Ed has a bad poll or his campaign isn’t good at anything but fundraising.
And in case you haven’t noticed, the DCCC has been pretty silent on the issue for the last month. And even if Perlmutter’s folks were dumb enough not to do a poll on their own to convince Colorado electeds to dump Peggy, the DCCC would have demanded it. So again, either Ed has a bad poll or he refused to do one because he figures the DCCC has already helped him enough – which is stupid.
Perlmutter has a poll. The DCCC and political reality demand it. But the poll isn’t good, which is why no one who supports Ed is talking about it. Oh, and Ed’s staff has seen the poll, too, which is why they’re all over the message boards here denying its existence.
Iron Mike,
DCCC pulled out of CD7 because they had a bad candidate with a worse campaign manager. And they won the 3rd. You should know better.
DCCC’s smarter than you think, and they haven’t said a word about Perlmutter for a while now.
DCCC ain’t gonna spend a dime in CD4 because, well, they can count. They might in CD6 because they actually have a candidate who has a shot, even if he won’t “Treasure my Vote,” but they won’t spend much. John Salazar in CD3 will have no trouble knocking off a guy who actually said, “John Salazar votes the right way on all the issues,” so they won’t spend a dime there, either.
CD7 is Colorado’s top Congressional race, plus, CD7 is top of the list for everyone else nationally, too, not just the DCCC – so money will not be a problem for either side after August. Expect over $10 million to be spent between August and November, with the candidates spending maybe $1m each, making any advantage in post-primary cash almost negligible.
Lovely.
We now know where Peggy stood in February.
Where does she stand TODAY? Trending upward? Downward?
And was this poll conducted before or after her voter fraud was brought to light? Was the poll conducted before or after she told John Ferrugia that she wasn’t sure WHERE she lived?
(thanks for the 3 month-old data, though).
A bad candidate? Well there was a lot of that going on that year! Ha, ha!
But I seem to recall words like “Colorado’s best DA” and crap like that used to describe Thomas (that’s his name). He looked pretty good when nominated. But the lure of winning the 3rd (which, yes, the DEMs did) and unseating Marylyn (almost did, came real close) came up Thomas was on his own.
Sorry kids… No matter how you cut it you will have a tough fight for the 7th.
Great that Peggy wants to bring our troops home.
By the way. When does she propose to do that?
What took her so long to have a position that is really no position? What is the status of the Jefferson County investigation?
Will Peggy Lamm make her lawyer available to answer questions on this topic?
Ed Perlmutter is not perfect. I wish Ed had come out earlier for the Murtha resolution. But, Ed and only Ed has a chance of winning this seat and returning Congress to the Democrats.
PW…I have to reluctantly agree with you. I like Peggy, I really like Peggy, but I think it is going to take a miracle for her pull this thing out. And even if she were able to win the primary, I would be very concerned about the general.
I will be the first to admit I REALLY don’t like Ed Perlmutter, but I will take Congressman Perlmutter over Congressman O’Donnell any day of the week.
I have some information from Celinda Lake and Joshua Ulibarri Lake Research Partners.
It seems that they do not like their firm being the subject of all these rumors, and they want to set the record straight.
Personally, I think that feeding the trolls only encourages them, but I said I would pass the word along.
What I am told is that there was a poll that included CD7. It was not for the Perlmutter campaign, but it was for a different client involved in a statewide ballot issue. I am not sure of the issue, but I believe it had to do with a potential minimum wage increase.
The only other thing I know was this release that came from their offices…
I have been told time and time again that I should not blog, but to the person who said my dad was a slime ball, I wonder if you have ever met him, my dad is the nicest person and most loving dad in the entire world! I hate how everyone gets on here and talks badly about the candidates, this should be a freindly race and people need to stand behind someone instead of seperating or we are going to lose!! Dont we want a democrat in office? Everyone is fighting and we are dividing our party, I just want everyone to know that my dad is someone who wants to help out his fellow man and is not anything that the people on here say. So please stop and try support each other because this is ridiculous.
Assuming “I am sick of this” is not a shill pulling a fast one, this post should remind us that everyone, even a ‘rascally’ politician, is somebody’s father, mother, son or daughter. The demonizing of candidates and elected officials is out of control. Maybe the focus should be on debating policies and ideas and not on sliming those who run for office.
Never happen Becky. When is the last time you ever saw a campaign ad for any position where the candidate spoke nothing but what he/she was for, and didn’t bash his/her opponent?
Never happened and never will. They are all the same.
TRUST NO ONE
BECKY–Great sentiment. It makes my blood pressure soar. Politics is like second hand smoke.
Not true Gecko. I’ve seen races run without the mud, not many, but it can happen if both candidates commit to it. Unfortunately, the higher the office and the stakes, the more tempting it is to start slinging. And even when the candidates act honorably, the 527’s will do the dirty deeds without their input or permission. It’s a shame really.
Toxic vapors and politics, good analogy RomeFell.
Take Back the House I read the Celinda Lake memo.
Other than being simply incoherent what does it mean?
Why doesn’t Ed Perlmutter simply release the results of the poll?
The Perlmutter camp went to great trouble to belittle the Lamm poll but what does their poll show? It is not as though that the Perlmutter campaign team has been able to keep the results a secret?
Peggy Lamm is a great campaigner who is going to Congress. Peggy holds a huge lead even after the character attacks and the Ferrugia interview that others thought would sink her candidacy.
That girl Peggy is a winner
How is the statement from Lake unclear? The poll wasn’t about candidate support in the 7th CD, it was about a ballot issue.
I doubt the polling firm would allow a false statement attributed to them to be posted here, so you can bet that is legit.
So, finally, the Lamm people have some evidence that their ‘theory’ about the phantom poll is wrong. They have it straight from Lake herself. Great job TakeBack, although I really doubt this is going to get through to all of them (it seems the clear and plain english used in their statement is somehow “incoherent”).
That probably was Ed’s daughter, and she makes a good point. Commentary should be restricted to the strengths and weaknesses of the campaigns at this point.
On that note, where are these character attacks on Peggy?
Posters keep complaining about these savage rhetorical attacks on the woman’s character – but I’m just not seeing them anywhere. Could somebody pull up some quotes?
I haven’t seen anything mentioned about Peggy of similar caliber to “slimeball” and “spineless douche.”
Criticizing Peggy’s campaign strengths and suggesting she’s not the right candidate for various reasons is a bit different than slanderous character assasination.
And, I have to point out, there’s some pretty extreme hypocrisy at work here when these Peggy supporters accuse the Perlmutter supporters of negative commentary. The debate is coming from both sides; don’t get rightous just because you haven’t conducted yourselves very well.
I just want to say to Ed’s daughter that I hear what she is saying and will take her advice to heart. I have the deepest respect for her father’s character and integrity, but I will remember her words even when writing about candidates who give me cause for concern.
If you read this comment, I want to let you know to buckle yourself in for a long ride. Your dad is going to do great things and he is going to serve his country in a very visible position. Doing that will involve a lot of sacrifices, including exposing himself to a lot of cruel words.
Some of the people who attack him will be mean spirited, and some will be good people who happen to disagree with him deeply on matters that are so important to them that they will have a hard time seeing that he is a good person too.
There may even come a time when people will want to hurt him bad enough that they will even attack you with their words.
Remember in those times the amazing task your father is taking on. He is going to serve the people who embrace him and the people who spit on him. He is going to have to always listen, even when the words are cruel, and he is going to have to hear the concerns hidden behind the words. He can’t do his job and shut out their voices, but he has to understand them just as much as his kindest friends.
He is going to represent all the people, and continue to serve their interests. Some will not treat him with the respect he has earned.
When you hear someone slander your dad, don’t let it hurt you or make you angry. Just allow it to deepen your respect for your father whose call to service is so strong that he even wants to help those who would tear him down. Every insult they throw at him is another reason for you to admire him. It is going to be a long road, but each difficult step will be worth it. Stay strong.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!
TOLD YOU SO!
Lake’s poll shows that it’s PEGGY who has a broad base of support, and Ed is left in the dust by way more than 11.4%.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!
Wow… there really was a poll.
That’s no good.
Rick is going to win, so you all can hope and wish and pray and waste your money all you want.
Tancredo for President,
What, exactly, do you base that on? In a $10 million campaign where the candidates each spent less than $1 million themselves, O’Donnell’s money advantage coming out of the primary will be negligible. Add to that the fact that your candidate looks like he’s waiting for his turn on the merry-go-round whenever he stands next to either Peggy or Ed, and you’re toast.
TP-
Peggy is killing O’Donnell in the polls – and Ed is getting killed by O’Donnell. So I agree with you that if Ed gets it, we could easily lose this race.
Ok, before I get all freaked out because there actually was a poll done by Lake and her firm, what were the numbers?
I am a Peggy Lam supporter and that allegiance will not change. Once the primaries are over, I hope we can all unite behind our candidate, whomever it may be. That being said, I would like to take the opportunity to apologize on behalf of anyone who has made unnecessarily hurtful comments about Ed. His daughter is absolutely right. There is no place for that in this race, and I would imagine that the Lamm campaign would share my opinion.
I have met Ed. He is a nice guy and a great politician with a bright future. I don’t want him to win this race, as I think Peggy is a better candidate. A lot of you will disagree with me, but we agree on the right to our own opinions. I would propose a complete ban on personal attacks against any candidate, because name calling is unproductive and leaves the poster with zero credibility.
These are the numbers I heard, from multiple sources:
Lamm 28
O’Donnell 23
Rubenstein 6
Perlmutter 5
Has anyone else heard any numbers?
28 – 11.4 = Way more than 5%
Who’s got support in the district?
I’m just telling you the numbers I heard… these are not percentages, these are voters polled. The question was “who would you vote for in November?”
Like I said, I have heard these numbers from multiple sources, and have not heard any other numbers.
Take Back The House
The memo from Ms.Lake refers to an oversample. What were the results of the original poll sampling? Don’t get all huffy. Just release the results of the poll not some over sample that is of course of dubious statistical validity. The Perlmutter team was quick to attack the Lamm poll. If their results are different from Lamm’s simply release them. This is not some alleged phantom poll. It is a poll taken by one of America’s top pollsters and a poll that Perlmutter has listed as costing in the tens of thousands of dollars. What were the results of that poll?
By # Voters:
Lamm 28
O’Donnell 23
Rubenstein 6
Perlmutter 5
Total: 62
The Lake memo said they surveyed 75 registered voters, so I’ll assume there are (75-62=13) 13 undecided.
By Percentage:
Lamm: 37.3
O’Donnell: 30.7
Rubenstein: 8.0
Perlmutter: 6.7
Undecided: 17.3
The Lake memo also said that with a sample of this size there is an 11.4% margin of error.
Joker,
Nicely said. Both Peggy and Ed have children (sorry, I’m not sure about Herb) and that post caught me right between the eyes. I’d hate to think of either candidates’ kids reading this and feeling that way. A fine reminder to me to keep it clean.
Yes, I’m hoping for Ed, but in the end, whoever ends up going up against O’Donnell will have my support.
Thanks, B.P.
The same numbers I have heard, but much more complete. Either way, it isn’t looking too good for Team Perlmutter. Factor in the margin of error and he has a chance to catch Herb.
The bad news for Ed Perlmutter is doubly bad.
He pays a lot of money for a poll that mirrors the results of the Lamm Poll and gives her a double digit lead. Than his own team leaks the results of that poll so that everyone now knows the results. Jim Merlino brings talent and discipline to the Lamm Team. I guarantee you that when he ran the Salazar campaign that polls numbers were not talked about all over the place. Peggy will be a great and gregarious member of congress and Jim Merlino will have another big win
I’m not sure where those numbers came from, I’d be interested to know. Somehow I really have a hard time believing that Perlmutter is polling at the same level as Rubenstein.
The numbers listed above do seem to match Peggy’s junk poll from a while ago, which is why it’s suspect that it’s coming from the Lamm people – who until recently only speculated that it existed because they saw a reciept for lake in Ed’s filings – but have just now begun claiming they took advantage of a “campaign leak” or something and were forwarded the information.
I’m not going to weigh in on this until I have the facts . . . but pretty darn suspect.
To that note though, those of you who read the release from Lake and believe those numbers are legit would do well to condier A) it was a sampling of only 75 people who ARE NOT likely primary voters B) it’s a tiny sample with a die margin of error C) it was conducted to test the favorability of a ballot measure and probably scarecely addressed candidate preferences.
Now, if the numbers were legit, it’s pretty possible that if they hit enough folks outside of JeffCO and Ed’s main support areas, Peggy’s name confusion could have carried her a long way.
If people aren’t likely primary voters, then they probably don’t keep track of the candidates either. If a bunch of names are strung along to them over the phone, they’ll just gravitate to the one they recognize, meaning LAMM (probably mistaking Peggy for Dottie, but that’s life).
Furthermore, it has been some of Lamm’s own supporters that have been crowing about how much the last few weeks of an election matter for voter decision and that Peggy still has a shot because she just needs to run some TV, etc.
Well, come August Ed will likely have a lot more money to spend than Peggy, and if you’re sticking to your statements about media coverage, then you’d have to recognize that Ed will be able to correct this name confusion problem pretty easily.
But like I said, I think those numbers are bunk in the first place. I’d wait for a legit poll before I started getting really excited . . .
A feeble attempt at rationalizing the poll, Ruby. You are singing a different tune now, when a week ago you insisted that the poll didn’t even exist. Now that you know it exists, you say it isn’t legitimate? Ed paid for the poll! Tell him (and his contributors) that the poll wasn’t legit, that it was a huge waste of money. They will love that.
By the way, if Ed agreed with you that the poll wasn’t legit, why is he going to announce that he is dropping out of the race on Monday? Explain that one.
I heard that rumor, too. I hope it isn’t true. I support Peggy, but I would like to see both of them participate in the primary. We need choice, and both are strong candidates. It would be hard to overcome poll results like those, though…
Blah blah blah, RubyBlue. Spin it however you want, but Ed is WAY behind. Doesn’t matter who you poll – Lake’s numbers match Lamm’s and you’ve got agreement on one thing: Lamm wins.
You guys are just spin spin spin over there at Perlmutter HQ. Ever think of working at Polyester’s?
Just keeps getting worse. DON’T LEAVE US, ED!
Whoa Ed is dropping out! This day gets better and better!
I’m sorry, I must have missed something… Where the hell are we getting that Ed is droping out?
I heard the rumor this morning. It’s based on the poll that shows Peggy with a huge lead. I hear he will announce on Monday.
ShotgunRichard,
According to a post on the thread over on Poll Talk in CD-7, “no one from Lamm’s campaign is saying Perlmutter is dropping out” (I’m paraphrasing but that’s the gist of it.)
So, not sure where the rumor originated from. I guess we will see on Monday?
I just heard that rumor too…That would be anti-climactic wouldn’t it. Here I was expecting a crazy primary. There is always Herb.
Great rumor. Not even vaguely true.
The only reason for the rumor is that Lamm shills are trying to kick up dust prior to the release of Lamm’s disclosure of her cash on hand.
They know that people will be calling for Peggy to step down, and they are doing a little bit of Karl Rove style campaigning to try to create an illusion of balance.
TakeBack, Your lips to God’s ears.
I just heard the same rumor from someone who, again, knows someone in the Perlmutter campaign – same way I heard about the poll.
Can’t be true, though, can it? I mean one bad poll and the guy drops out? Even if he’s thinking about it I don’t think it’ll happen. But this is from the same source who told me about the Celinda Lake poll, so…
Man alive, you all really bombard the blogs with repetative statements – almost makes you wonder if the same people are making multiple comments under different names. Justin, Way2_liberal, you out there? Do you have anything else interesting to say besides you think that I’m wrong?
The poll doesn’t exist, or at least as you have it. Perlmutter’s campaign cut a check to Lake a while back for some travel expenses. I have heard the total amount was around $500. Pretty cheap for a pollster’s services eh? Maybe Ed had a coupon . . . I was confused about where you guys got those numbers, not the existence of the poll. Read carefully – Ed has never paid Lake to conduct a poll for him.
If you’re so certain he has, call up Lake and get a statement, that would solve your credibility problems. And speaking of . . .
So far as this dropping out thing, you all are setting yourselves up for some serious ribbing on Monday.
Everybody expect an entirely new set of blog names from the Lamm fanatics on Monday. Can’t wait to see that cash on hand filing . . .
Now I have to chase you around the website to tell you that you are wrong? The least you could do is stay in one place while I attempt to pound the facts into your head, Ruby.
Let’s try a different technique: what exactly are you denying? That Celinda Lake is on Perlmutter’s payroll? Or that Lake has no other clients in Colorado? Even if Ed didn’t order the poll (which he did, but I’m saying for the sake of arguement) are you taking the position that the poll results are inaccurate? Or non-existent?
You are the only person left in the entire state who is denying that there was a poll of 75 CD7 voters that showed Peggy with a HUGE lead over Ed. That is a tough position to take, considering WE HAVE SEEN THE FREAKING POLL!!! It’s all over the threads today. Let it go. You were wrong this whole time. The poll exists, now everyone has seen it. Let it go.
I’ll direct you to my responses in the other threads . . . where you’re welcome to further “attempt to pound the facts” into my head. Colorful phrasing.
To Recap: Ed paid Lake a nominal sum that was a reimbursment for some expenses.
Take note – Lake did a survey in Colorado for a union group – meaning the check could have come from elsewhere. I don’t know her client list, but I know pollsters work for more than just political candidates. If you’re basing this “only client in Colorado” idea on scanning other candidates filings, I suggest you branch out to every major organization in the state.
Nobody seems to know where the figures you mention come from – some numbers mysteriously manifesting on an internet blog and the truth are not necessarily congruent entities. And thank God for that.
I find it interesting that the rumor of this ‘poll’ came about, everybody called BS, and THEN some shady numbers materialized out of the ether. Why weren’t they announced staight away? Sorry, but there are just too many holes in this poll story, and the truth is going to keep leaking out.
You are wrong, Ruby. Let it go.
No offense, but that’s not much of a rebuttal to the issues I raise.
I don’t mind your posting as it gives me an excellent opportunity to flesh out the truth of the matter, but really, just telling me I’m wrong isn’t doing a whole lot to advance your position. If it’s just a matter of you needing to have the last word, please, by all means, tell me I’m wrong again and again. I’m content to have my questions and points stand uncontested.
You make the same points over and over, even though you have been proven wrong over and over. Don’t you have anything better to do? The “issues” you raise are not issues any longer: the poll has been posted, Celinda Lake admitted to doing the poll, you yourself have admitted that Ed wrote Lake a check… the writing is on the freaking wall! But, even if Ed didn’t order the poll, the fact of the matter is that the poll was conducted and it shows a huge lead for Peggy. It is time to move on to a different subject. You were wrong. Let it go.
Ah, that’s better.
I repeat the same points because subsequent posts fail to address them.
Let’s start be correcting the misinformation posted above:
“the poll has been posted” – Incorrect. Some numbers, of entirely unidentified origin, have been posted. We have zero confirmation where they came from. Nobody seems willing to address this issue. When I ask for further information about this data set, the silence is deafening. Throwing some statisitcs (that nobody seems capable of verifying) up on an internet blog is not the same as “the poll being posted.” I really can’t be any more clear on this. Read it twice.
“Celinda Lake admitted to doing the poll” – Celinda Lake admitted to conducting a poll, nothing more. She did not confirm the statistics you and others keep clinging to, nor did she say she performed a poll at Perlmutter’s behest. She did, however, send out a memo addressing the subject of Lamm staffers taking her firm’s poll out of context and inappropriately insinuating that it is a solid appraisal of candidate support in the 7th CD. Read this again, and then read the memo if you still find this issue confusing.
“you yourself have admitted that Ed wrote Lake a check” – Indeed I have. For around $500. Now that, my friends, is one hell of a deal. Just yesterday the pro-Lamm posters enthusiastically mentioned the great expense of hiring an esteemed pollster like Celinda Lake, today they are silent when it is revealed that Perlmutter’s campaign paid her a very small sum. I’ve explained this elsewhere, you have ignored but posted again, hence the need for me to repeat myself.
And so SpaceCowboy, I would also point out that your post bookends with simply stating “you’re wrong.” You are 100% entitled to this opinion, but it has unfortunately become the core of your argument. Insisting that I’m incorrect and pleading with me to accept as much can’t replace actual facts as a burden of proof.
Ruby,
Why in hell would you spend $500 of your money?
You’re cutting into the process. Rather, you’re subverting the process. the way it works is Ryker, Butt Ridges and Polis spend $2500 for the same service. That pumps money into the party and frees you to donate to well known Democrat causes such as NAMBLA. The skies the limit.