May 03, 2009 07:23 PM UTC

What recent polls, political developments tell us about CO4 2010

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• by: BobMoore

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

I have a story in today’s Coloradoan that looks at what some recent national polls and political developments tell us about Colorado’s 4th Congressional District in the 2010 election.

Bob Duffy from CSU offers a crucial caveat: “The state of the economy is likely to be a far more important factor in anyone’s re-election in 2010 than any votes cast now – mid-terms as referenda on incumbent party and all that.”

Still, a poll released last week by the Democracy Corps, and Democrat Scott Murphy’s win in New York’s 20th Congressional District, are seen by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as signs that Betsy Markey is well-positioned for her re-election bid. The poll showed that Markey and 19 other incumbents in the most competitive Democratic-held districts have a 12-point lead over generic Republicans.

But that same poll also shows that re-election support for those 20 incumbents was very soft, and voters in those districts are concerned with growing deficit spending. The National Republican Congressional Committee sees those findings as signs of vulnerability for Markey and other Dem incumbents in battleground districts.

You can see the story here: http://tr.im/km1Q

You can see details of the Democracy Corps poll here:

http://www.democracycorps.com/…

Resurgent Republic, the GOP answer to Democracy Corps, also has some polling data available:

http://www.resurgentrepublic.c…

The story also looks at the Scott Murphy-Jim Tedisco race in the recent NY20 special election. Andrew Stone of the DCCC and Joanna Burgos of the NRCC debated what the Democrat Murphy’s narrow win in a heavily Republican district might portend for CO4:

Stone said the recent special election in New York’s 20th Congressional District, where Democrat Scott Murphy narrowly defeated Republican Jim Tedisco, is another illustration of voter frustration with Republicans.

The GOP has a 70,000 edge over Democrats in voter registration in that district, compared with a 44,000 advantage in Colorado’s 4th District. The Republicans have now lost three elections since 2006 in the New York district that they had carried for most of the previous two decades.

Stone said Murphy’s victory bodes well for Markey, who is now an incumbent and faces a smaller Republican voter registration advantage than Murphy faced in New York. Before Markey’s 12-point win over incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in 2008, Republicans had controlled Colorado’s 4th Congressional District since 1975.

But the NRCC’s Burgos said the Colorado situation is different than New York’s 20th District. Republican presidential nominee John McCain lost in the New York district in 2008, but narrowly won Colorado’s 4th District, indicating that the district still leans Republican, Burgos said.

“The 2008 results show that it was very much an election about not supporting Musgrave rather than supporting Markey,” Burgos said.

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